Eruption type probability and eruption source parameters at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes (Ecuador) with uncertainty quantification

Future occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. Eight eruption types were considered for each volcano. Type event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. For each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). We investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. For Cotopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. Elicitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (~ 26–44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. However, for the next eruption at Cotopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-Plinian or Plinian type eruption is of order 30–40%—a significant chance of a violent explosive event. It is inferred that any Cotopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. For Guagua Pichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability ~40–55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. However, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-Plinian or Plinian, with all that implies for hazard levels

Circulating adrenomedullin estimates survival and reversibility of organ failure in sepsis: the prospective observational multinational Adrenomedullin and Outcome in Sepsis and Septic Shock-1 (AdrenOSS-1) study

Background: Adrenomedullin (ADM) regulates vascular tone and endothelial permeability during sepsis. Levels of circulating biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) show an inverse relationship with blood pressure and a direct relationship with vasopressor requirement. In the present prospective observational multinational Adrenomedullin and Outcome in Sepsis and Septic Shock 1 (, AdrenOSS-1) study, we assessed relationships between circulating bio-ADM during the initial intensive care unit (ICU) stay and short-term outcome in order to eventually design a biomarker-guided randomized controlled trial. Methods: AdrenOSS-1 was a prospective observational multinational study. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included organ failure as defined by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, organ support with focus on vasopressor/inotropic use, and need for renal replacement therapy. AdrenOSS-1 included 583 patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis or septic shock. Results: Circulating bio-ADM levels were measured upon admission and at day 2. Median bio-ADM concentration upon admission was 80.5 pg/ml [IQR 41.5-148.1 pg/ml]. Initial SOFA score was 7 [IQR 5-10], and 28-day mortality was 22%. We found marked associations between bio-ADM upon admission and 28-day mortality (unadjusted standardized HR 2.3 [CI 1.9-2.9]; adjusted HR 1.6 [CI 1.1-2.5]) and between bio-ADM levels and SOFA score (p < 0.0001). Need of vasopressor/inotrope, renal replacement therapy, and positive fluid balance were more prevalent in patients with a bio-ADM > 70 pg/ml upon admission than in those with bio-ADM ≤ 70 pg/ml. In patients with bio-ADM > 70 pg/ml upon admission, decrease in bio-ADM below 70 pg/ml at day 2 was associated with recovery of organ function at day 7 and better 28-day outcome (9.5% mortality). By contrast, persistently elevated bio-ADM at day 2 was associated with prolonged organ dysfunction and high 28-day mortality (38.1% mortality, HR 4.9, 95% CI 2.5-9.8). Conclusions: AdrenOSS-1 shows that early levels and rapid changes in bio-ADM estimate short-term outcome in sepsis and septic shock. These data are the backbone of the design of the biomarker-guided AdrenOSS-2 trial. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02393781. Registered on March 19, 2015

Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana

Human Multipotent Stromal Cells (MSCs) Increase Neurogenesis and Decrease Atrophy of the Striatum in a Transgenic Mouse Model for Huntington's Disease

Background: Implantation of human multipotent stromal cells from bone marrow (hMSCs) into the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus of mice was previously shown to stimulate proliferation, migration and neural differentiation of endogenous neural stem cells. We hypothesized that hMSCs would be beneficial in a mouse model of Huntington disease (HD) due to these neurogenic effects. Results: We implanted hMSCs into the striatum of transgenic mice (N171-82Q) that are a model for HD. The implanted hMSCs rapidly disappeared over 3 to 15 days. However, they increased proliferation and neural differentiation of endogenous neural stem cells for up to 30 days. They also increased neurotrophic signaling and decreased atrophy of the striatum in 3-month old HD mice implanted with hMSCs one month earlier. Conclusions: The results therefore suggested that neural implantation of hMSCs may be of benefit in HD but a number of parameters of dose, treatment schedule, and route of administration need to be optimized

Community Responses to Climate-Related Variability and Disease: The Critical Importance of Long-Term Research

A major goal of the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO) has been to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on the coastal ecosystems of the inner shelf of the California Current Large Marine System in particular, and other marine and even nonmarine systems more generally. Insights can result from determination of impacts of climatic perturbations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, as well as impacts of climate-related surprises on populations, communities, and ecosystems. To gain insight into warming impacts at organismal levels, we also investigated mechanistic suborganismal (physiological, molecular) responses to thermal conditions. Warmer water was connected to changes in ecological subsidies, growth of dominant space occupiers (mussels and barnacles), and heightened physiological stress impacts. Fortuitously, PISCO researchers were ideally positioned to document ecosystem vulnerability and resilience to an unprecedented ecological surprise—coast-wide collapse of keystone predator (sea star) populations—and to investigate its consequences. As these examples suggest, long-term sampling is critically important for helping society anticipate and adapt to present and future disruptions caused by global change

Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System

The near-term progression of ocean acidification (OA) is projected to bring about sharp changes in the chemistry of coastal upwelling ecosystems. The distribution of OA exposure across these early-impact systems, however, is highly uncertain and limits our understanding of whether and how spatial management actions can be deployed to ameliorate future impacts. Through a novel coastal OA observing network, we have uncovered a remarkably persistent spatial mosaic in the penetration of acidified waters into ecologically-important nearshore habitats across 1,000 km of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In the most severe exposure hotspots, suboptimal conditions for calcifying organisms encompassed up to 56% of the summer season, and were accompanied by some of the lowest and most variable pH environments known for the surface ocean. Persistent refuge areas were also found, highlighting new opportunities for local adaptation to address the global challenge of OA in productive coastal systems

Ligand-receptor co-evolution shaped the jasmonate pathway in land plants.

The phytohormone jasmonoyl-isoleucine (JA-Ile) regulates defense, growth and developmental responses in vascular plants. Bryophytes have conserved sequences for all JA-Ile signaling pathway components but lack JA-Ile. We show that, in spite of 450 million years of independent evolution, the JA-Ile receptor COI1 is functionally conserved between the bryophyte Marchantia polymorpha and the eudicot Arabidopsis thaliana but COI1 responds to different ligands in each species. We identified the ligand of Marchantia MpCOI1 as two isomeric forms of the JA-Ile precursor dinor-OPDA (dinor-cis-OPDA and dinor-iso-OPDA). We demonstrate that AtCOI1 functionally complements Mpcoi1 mutation and confers JA-Ile responsiveness and that a single-residue substitution in MpCOI1 is responsible for the evolutionary switch in ligand specificity. Our results identify the ancestral bioactive jasmonate and clarify its biosynthetic pathway, demonstrate the functional conservation of its signaling pathway, and show that JA-Ile and COI1 emergence in vascular plants required co-evolution of hormone biosynthetic complexity and receptor specificity

Application du radar Doppler (VOLDORAD) à l'étude de la dynamique des éruptions Stromboliennes de l'Etna

VOLDORAD, un radar Doppler UHF moyenne puissance, est un système portable basé au sol, développé par l'Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (France), spécifiquement pour l'étude de l'activité volcanique explosive. La capacité de ces méthodes de télédétection à sonder l'intérieur des jets et des panaches volcaniques dangereux constitue un vrai pas en avant concernant l'analyse des paramètres physiques qui contrôlent la dynamique des éruptions volcaniques. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est d'apporter des contraintes plus précises, notamment à partir du développement de procédures méthodologiques, sur l'interprétation des données radar Doppler, dans le but final d'améliorer notre compréhension de la dynamique explosive. Ce travail a été réalisé à partir de mesures radar Doppler acquises pendant l'éruption du cratère Sud-Est de l'Etna en Juillet 2001, et s'intéresse plus particulièrement à l'activité Strombolienne. Cependant, les méthodes de traitement, les modèles directs et les procédures d'inversion développés dans cette étude ont été réalisés dans une optique plus générale, et applicable sur différents types de dynamismes. L'étude détaillée de l'activité Strombolienne par la méthode radar Doppler a permis d'obtenir une large gamme de paramètres sources, notamment : les vitesses et masses de gaz et de particules, ainsi que les caractéristiques géométriques des jets. L'estimation quantitative précise de ces paramètres et de leur évolution au cours du temps est cruciale pour (1) la surveillance et la détection précoce de l'activité volcanique, ainsi que (2) pour l'apport de contraintes sur les hypothèses formulées dans les modèles de dynamique éruptive et dans les modèles de prédiction de dispersion des cendres, indispensables à la minimisation des risquesCLERMONT FD-BCIU Sci.et Tech. (630142101) / SudocFONTAINEBLEAU-MINES ParisTech (771862302) / SudocRENNES-Géosciences (352382209) / SudocSudocFranceF