Demographical characteristics of pregnant women at embryo-fetal malformation risk

The aim of the study is to assess the demographic characteristics of pregnant women at risk of embryo-fetal malformations in I and II trimesters of pregnancy. The study included 1203 pregnant women at embryo-fetal malformation risk in the I and II trimesters of pregnancy, who were directed to the consultation to the National Centre of Reproductive Health and Medical Genetics in Moldova in 2009-2011. The pregnant women involved in the study have as expressed the informed consent. All pregnant women have been the native residents of the Republic of Moldova. The selection criteria of pregnant women at risk were follows: advanced maternal age (older than or equal to 35 years old), pathological obstetric and family history. The majority of pregnant women at risk of embryo-fetal malformations have been found mostly in the cities – Chisinau (54.4%), Balti (6.2%), Orhei (1.8%), Tiraspol (2.8%) – compared to rural districts – Ialoveni (1.8%) and Causeni (1.3%). Most pregnant women were from the central zone of the Republic of Moldova compared to the north zone, Transdniestrian region and the south zone (62.7% vs 14.8%, 11.8% and 10.7% respectively). The analysis results of the antenatal diagnosis of the women in the study determined the presence of the following risk factors of embryo-fetal malformations, listed in the decreasing order: an advanced maternal age over 35 years old – in 52.5% of pregnant women, pathological personal history – in 12.3%, pathological obstetric history – in 4.3%, family history with abnomalities – in 4.7%, presence of occupation hazards – in 0.7% and the father’s age over 40 years old – in 1.0% of cases

Technological Change in Economic Models of Environmental Policy: A Survey

This paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy. Numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid- and long-run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs. In general, technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic, exogenous variable in global climate change modeling. However, there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous, induced by needs and pressures. Hence, some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous, responding to socio-economic variables. Three main elements in models of technological innovation are: (i) corporate investment in research and development, (ii) spillovers from R&D, and (iii) technology learning, especially learning-by-doing. The incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental-economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy, accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage

Climate policy and ancillary benefits : a survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change

Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emission levels, industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so, depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries

Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Impure Public Goods and Technological Interdependencies

Impure public goods represent an important group of goods. Almost every public good exerts not only effects which are public to all but also effects which are private to the producer of this good. What is often omitted in the analysis of impure public goods is the fact that – regularly – these private effects can also be generated independently of the public good. In our analysis we focus on the effects alternative technologies – independently generating the private effects of the public good – may have on the provision of impure public goods. After the investigation in an analytical impure public good model, we numerically simulate the effects of alternative technologies in a parameterized model for climate policy in Germany