Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

The age of anxiety? It depends where you look: changes in STAI trait anxiety, 1970–2010

Purpose Population-level surveys suggest that anxiety has been increasing in several nations, including the USA and UK. We sought to verify the apparent anxiety increases by looking for systematic changes in mean anxiety questionnaire scores from research publications. Methods We analyzed all available mean State–Trait Anxiety Inventory scores published between 1970 and 2010. We collected 1703 samples, representing more than 205,000 participants from 57 nations. Results Results showed a significant anxiety increase worldwide, but the pattern was less clear in many individual nations. Our analyses suggest that any increase in anxiety in the USA and Canada may be limited to students, anxiety has decreased in the UK, and has remained stable in Australia. Conclusions Although anxiety may have increased worldwide, it might not be increasing as dramatically as previously thought, except in specific populations, such as North American students. Our results seem to contradict survey results from the USA and UK in particular. We do not claim that our results are more reliable than those of large population surveys. However, we do suggest that mental health surveys and other governmental sources of disorder prevalence data may be partially biased by changing attitudes toward mental health: if respondents are more aware and less ashamed of their anxiety, they are more likely to report it to survey takers. Analyses such as ours provide a useful means of double-checking apparent trends in large population surveys

Measuring Dysfunctional Attitudes in the General Population: The Dysfunctional Attitude Scale (form A) Revised

The Dysfunctional Attitude Scale (DAS) was designed to measure the intensity of dysfunctional attitudes, a hallmark feature of depression. Various exploratory factor analytic studies of the DAS form A (DAS-A) yielded mixed results. The current study was set up to compare the fit of various factor models. We used a large community sample (N = 8,960) to test the previously proposed factor models of the DAS-A using confirmatory factor analysis. The retained model of the DAS-A was subjected to reliability and validity analyses. All models showed good fit to the data. Finally, a two-factor solution of the DAS-A was retained, consisting of 17 items. The factors demonstrated good reliability and convergent construct validity. Significant associations were found with depression. Norm-scores were presented. We advocate the use of a 17-item DAS-A, which proved to be useful in measuring dysfunctional beliefs. On the basis of previous psychometric studies, our study provides solid evidence for a two-factor model of the DAS-A, consisting of ‘dependency’ and ‘perfectionism/performance evaluation’

The depression in visual impairment trial (DEPVIT): trial design and protocol

<b>Background</b> The prevalence of depression in people with a visual disability is high but screening for depression and referral for treatment is not yet an integral part of visual rehabilitation service provision. One reason for this may be that there is no good evidence about the effectiveness of treatments in this patient group. This study is the first to evaluate the effect of depression treatments on people with a visual impairment and co morbid depression.<p></p> <b>Methods/design</b> The study is an exploratory, multicentre, individually randomised waiting list controlled trial. Participants will be randomised to receive Problem Solving Therapy (PST), a ‘referral to the GP’ requesting treatment according to the NICE’s ‘stepped care’ recommendations or the waiting list arm of the trial. The primary outcome measure is change (from randomisation) in depressive symptoms as measured by the Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI-II) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include change in depressive symptoms at 3 months, change in visual function as measured with the near vision subscale of the VFQ-48 and 7 item NEI-VFQ at 3 and 6 months, change in generic health related quality of life (EQ5D), the costs associated with PST, estimates of incremental cost effectiveness, and recruitment rate estimation.<p></p> <b>Discussion</b> Depression is prevalent in people with disabling visual impairment. This exploratory study will establish depression screening and referral for treatment in visual rehabilitation clinics in the UK. It will be the first to explore the efficacy of PST and the effectiveness of NICE’s ‘stepped care’ approach to the treatment of depression in people with a visual impairment.<p></p&gt

The effectiveness of a web-based self-help intervention to reduce suicidal thoughts: A randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide, attempted suicide and suicidal thoughts are major public health problems worldwide. Effective face-to-face treatments are Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT), Dialectical Behavioural Therapy (DBT) and Problem Solving Treatment (PST). However, about two-thirds of persons who die by suicide have not been in contact with mental health care services in the preceding year, and many have never been treated. Furthermore, many patients do not disclose their suicidal thoughts to their care provider. This may be out of shame, due to fear of stigma or due to lack of trust in (mental) health care. Since many suicidal individuals seek information online, the internet provides an opportunity to reach suicidal individuals who would not be contacted otherwise. By providing a self-help intervention online, persons can anonymously learn to gain control over their suicidal thoughts. There is convincing evidence that self-help is effective for a number of mental disorders. In this study the effectiveness for suicidal thoughts is examined.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In this study, a recently developed self-help intervention will be evaluated in a Randomized Controlled Trial. The intervention is based on Cognitive Behavioural Therapy and is aimed at subjects who experience mild to moderate suicidal thoughts. This is defined as a score between 1 and 26 on the Beck Scale for Suicidal Ideation (BSS). Higher and lower scores are excluded. In addition, severely depressed subjects are excluded. In total, 260 subjects will be randomly allocated to the intervention-condition (N = 130) or to the information-control condition (N = 130). Self-report questionnaires will be filled out at baseline, 6 weeks after baseline and 18 weeks after baseline. Primary outcome measure is the reduction in frequency and intensity of suicidal thoughts. Secondary outcome measures are the reduction of hopelessness, anxiety and depression, sleeplessness, worry and quality of life measures.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study is the first to evaluate the effectiveness of a web-based self-help intervention for suicidal thoughts. Several limitations and strengths of the design are discussed.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Netherlands Trial Register, NTR1689</p

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Health-state utilities in a prisoner population : a cross-sectional survey

Background: Health-state utilities for prisoners have not been described. Methods: We used data from a 1996 cross-sectional survey of Australian prisoners (n = 734). Respondent-level SF-36 data was transformed into utility scores by both the SF-6D and Nichol's method. Socio-demographic and clinical predictors of SF-6D utility were assessed in univariate analyses and a multivariate general linear model. Results: The overall mean SF-6D utility was 0.725 (SD 0.119). When subdivided by various medical conditions, prisoner SF-6D utilities ranged from 0.620 for angina to 0.764 for those with none/mild depressive symptoms. Utilities derived by the Nichol's method were higher than SF-6D scores, often by more than 0.1. In multivariate analysis, significant independent predictors of worse utility included female gender, increasing age, increasing number of comorbidities and more severe depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The utilities presented may prove useful for future economic and decision models evaluating prison-based health programs

Long term life dissatisfaction and subsequent major depressive disorder and poor mental health

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Poor mental health, especially due to depression, is one of the main public health problems. Early indicators of poor mental health in general population are needed. This study examined the relationship between long-term life dissatisfaction and subsequent mental health, including major depressive disorder.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Health questionnaires were sent to a randomly selected population-based sample in 1998 and repeated in 1999 and 2001. In 2005, a clinically studied sub-sample (n = 330) was composed of subjects with (n = 161) or without (n = 169) repeatedly reported adverse mental symptoms at all three previous data collection times. Clinical symptom assessments were performed with several psychometric scales: life satisfaction (<b>LS</b>), depression (<b>HDRS, BDI</b>), hopelessness (<b>HS</b>), mental distress (<b>GHQ</b>), dissociative experiences (<b>DES</b>), and alexithymia (<b>TAS</b>). The long-term life dissatisfaction burden was calculated by summing these life satisfaction scores in 1998, 1999, 2001 and dividing the sum into tertiles. Psychiatric diagnoses were confirmed by SCID-I for DSM-IV in 2005. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the studied relationship.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The previous life dissatisfaction burden associated with adverse socio-demographic, life style and clinical factors. In adjusted logistic regression analyses, it was independently and strongly associated with subsequent major depressive disorder in 2005, even when the concurrent LS score in 2005 was included in the model. Excluding those with reported major depressive disorder in 1999 did not alter this finding.</p> <p>Limitations</p> <p>MDD in 1999 was based on self-reports and not on structured interview and LS data in 2001-2005 was not available.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The life satisfaction burden is significantly related to major depressive disorder and poor mental health, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal settings.</p