A probabilistic analysis of the Dutch lotto

The size of the jackpot of the American powerball lottery that fell in August 2001 has generated a lot of interest in the probability of winning a lottery, both in the United States and elsewhere. Many people dream of becoming rich in a single moment. We calculate the probabilities of winning prizes, and the expected pay-off of the Dutch Lotto. We also address an important issue: are the numbers and color drawn truly random? We analyze draws of the Lotto from 1974 onwards. It is impractical to test whether each possible draw occurs according to its expected frequency. It is possible, though, to test different implications of the hypothesis that the numbers and colors are drawn randomly. We find that there is no evidence against the hypothesis that the numbered balls are drawn randomly, but the hypothesis that the colored ball is drawn randomly is rejected decisively.

Toekomstbeeld broeikasgasbalans van het Nederlandse landschap

De mondiale emissies van CO2 zijn de afgelopen jaren substantieel gestegen. Een afbuiging van deze trend lijkt noodzakelijk, wil de concentratie in de atmosfeer niet te hoog oplopen. De internationale gemeenschap probeert die te realiseren door stevige reductiedoelstellingen vast te stellen voor de komende tien tot dertig jaar. De inspanningen zijn gericht op terugdringen van emissies, compensatie van de uitstoot door afvang en opslag van CO2 en de omschakeling naar een duurzame energievoorziening

Transputer based control system for MTLRS

The Modular Transportable Laser Ranging Systems (MTLRS-1 and MTLRS-2) have been designed in the early eighties and have been in operation very successfully since 1984. The original design of the electronic control system was based on the philosophy of parallel processing, but these ideas could at that time only be implemented to a very limited extent. This present system utilizes two MOTOROLA 6800 8-bit processors slaved to a HP A-600 micro-computer. These processors support the telescope tracking system and the data-acquisition/formatting, respectively. Nevertheless, the overall design still is largely hardware oriented. Because the system is now some nine years old, aging of components increases the risk of malfunctioning and some components or units are outdated and not available anymore. The control system for MTLRS is now being re-designed completely, based on the original philosophy of parallel processing, making use of contemporary advanced electronics and processor technology. The new design aims at the requirements for Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) in the nineties, making use of the extensive operational experience obtained with the two transportable systems

Nitrogen source apportionment for the catchment, estuary and adjacent coastal waters of the Scheldt.

Using the systems approach framework (SAF), a coupled model suite was developed for simulating land-use decision making in response to nutrient abatement costs and water and nutrient fluxes in the hydrological network of the Scheldt River, and nutrient fluxes in the estuary and adjacent coastal sea. The purpose was to assess the efficiency of different long-term water quality improvement measures in current and future climate and societal settings, targeting nitrogen (N) load reduction. The spatial-dynamic model suite consists of two dynamically linked modules: PCRaster is used for the drainage network and is combined with ExtendSim modules for farming decision making and estuarine N dispersal. Model predictions of annual mean flow and total N concentrations compared well with data available for river and estuary (r² ≥ 0.83). Source apportionment was carried out to societal sectors and administrative regions; both households and agriculture are the major sources of N, with the regions of Flanders and Wallonia contributing most. Load reductions by different measures implemented in the model were comparable (~75% remaining after 30 yr), but costs differed greatly. Increasing domestic sewage connectivity was more effective, at comparatively low cost (47% remaining). The two climate scenarios did not lead to major differences in load compared with the business-as-usual scenario (~88% remaining). Thus, this spatially explicit model of water flow and N fluxes in the Scheldt catchment can be used to compare different long-term policy options for N load reduction to river, estuary, and receiving sea in terms of their effectiveness, cost, and optimal location of implementation

Outsourcing childcare, home cleaning and meal preparation

In this paper the outsourcing of childcare, home cleaning and meal preparation is analysed by means of a socio-economic model that incorporates household-economic, lifecycle, lifestyle and health variables. The data (n= 700) was collected during a telephone survey in the Netherlands. About 10 per cent of the households did not use any of the three forms of outsourcing. About 70 to 90 per cent of households outsourced meal preparation. In any household type, the average monthly expenditures on outsourcing meal preparation were the highest of the three outsourcing categories. In the data analysis a Heckman selection model was applied. Factors affecting different outsourcing expenditures were generally the same for each type of outsourcing studied . Household economic variables as wage and working hours were in general not important in explaining the incidence and expenditures of outsourcing. The same hold for health. Childcare expenditures were also affected positively by life-cycle variables. There was an indication that a traditional lifestyle and traditional family type affected outsourcing expenditures negatively. Education appeared as an important taste shaper: regardless of gender, both medium and higher educated people were more inclined to spend money on outsourcing than the lower educated. Especially people younger than 44 years outsourced meal preparation. Outsourcing was neither restricted to nor especially practised by couples