Changes in seed dispersal processes and the potential for between-patch connectivity for an arid land daisy

Dispersal is a major and critical process in population biology that has been particularly challenging to study. Animals can have major roles in seed dispersal even in species that do not appear specifically adapted to animal-aided dispersal. This can occur by two processes: direct movement of diaspores by animals and modification of landscape characteristics by animals in ways that greatly influence dispersal. We exploited the production of large, persistent dispersal structures (seed heads, henceforth) by Erodiophyllum elderi (Asteraceae), a daisy from arid Australia, to further understand secondary dispersal. Seed head dispersal on and off animal tracks in eight E. elderi patches was monitored for 9.5 months by periodically recording the location of marked seed heads. Sites were located inside a reserve that excludes sheep but not kangaroos, and in a nearby area with both kangaroos and sheep. The distance moved and likelihood of seed head movement was higher in areas with sheep, and especially along animal tracks. There was clear evidence that seed heads were channeled down animal tracks during large rainfall events. Seed head dispersal away from patches occurred to a limited extent via their physical contact with sheep and potentially via wind dispersal. Thus, the advantages of this study system allowed us to demonstrate the two postulated effects of herbivores on dispersal via direct movement of seed heads, and two distinct indirect effects through landscape modification by herbivores from the creation of animal tracks and the denudation of vegetation.Louise M. Emmerson, José M. Facelli, Peter Chesson, Hugh Possingham, and Jemery R. Da

A Model to Explain Ecological Parapatry

Ecological parapatry, in which pairs of largely allopatric taxa abut along common boundaries without hybridization, is often reported but seldom explained. A computer simulation model is developed that shows that parapatry between two species can be maintained by interspecific interaction on a dine of reducing ecological suitability for the competitively stronger species. In the model, a homogeneous environment requires much greater interaction strength to sustain parapatry than does a heterogeneous environment with alternate regions of favorable and poor habitat. The heterogeneous environment of the model is intended to mimic the environment near a well-studied parapatric boundary between two reptile tick species

ALEX: A Model For The Viability Analysis Of Spatially Structured Populations

A new generic model for assessing the viability of spatially structured populations, ALEX (Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction), is described. Strengths and weaknesses of ALEX are discussed. ALEX only models one sex, ignores genetics, and is inadequate for modelling the dynamics of very small populations. However ALEX contains four features that make it useful for assessing the merits of different management options for populations that are distributed in a spatially complex landscape: (1) ALEX allows each patch to have different qualities including a habitat variable that may respond to catastrophes. In this way the dynamics of species which prefer a particular successional stage of a habitat can be modelled. (2) ALEX allows the user to specify a wide variety of catastrophic processes that affect and may depend on population size and/or the state of the habitat in a patch. (3) Sensitivity analysis is essential to the PVA process. ALEX allows automatic sensitivity analysis of most parameters. Although demographic stochasticity is modelled, ALEX can quickly simulate the dynamics of very large populations. (4) Modelling movement between patches by individuals is an important part of the dynamics of spatially structured populations. ALEX permits two types of movement by individuals. This allows the user to explore the importance of corridors, habitat selection, and mortality associated with dispersal

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches

Applying Decision-Theory Framework to Landscape Planning for Biodiversity: Follow-up to Watson et al

Because socioeconomic factors drive conservation planning, we believe that to be relevant to on-the-ground projects, conservation science should be focused more on formulating problems explicitly and showing how the broad variety of decision-making tools can be used to deliver solutions. Conservation biology cannot operate outside the reality of financial limitations

The effect of resource aggregation at different scales: Optimal foraging behavior of Cotesia rubecula

Copyright is owned by publisher: http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Resources can be aggregated both within and between patches. In this article, we examine how aggregation at these different scales influences the behavior and performance of foragers. We developed an optimal foraging model of the foraging behavior of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia rubecula parasitizing the larvae of the cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae. The optimal behavior was found using stochastic dynamic programming. The most interesting and novel result is that the effect of resource aggregation within and between patches depends on the degree of aggregation both within and between patches as well as on the local host density in the occupied patch, but lifetime reproductive success depends only on aggregation within patches. Our findings have profound implications for the way in which we measure heterogeneity at different scales and model the response of organisms to spatial heterogeneity.Brigitte Tenhumberg, Michael A Keller, Andrew J Tyre and Hugh P Possingha

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics

In pursuit of knowledge: Addressing barriers to effective conservation evaluation

Evaluation, the process of assessing the effectiveness of programs and activities, has gained increasing attention in the conservation sector as programs seek to account for investments, measure their impacts, and adapt interventions to improve future outcomes. We conducted a country-wide evaluation of terrestrial-based conservation programs in Samoa. Though rarely applied, the benefit of evaluating multiple projects at once is that it highlights factors which are persistent and influential across the entire conservation sector. We found mixed success in achieving goals among conservation programs; yet this result is surrounded by uncertainty because of the quality of existing evidence on project outcomes. We explore the role of different components of the conservation management system, i.e., context, planning, inputs, processes, and outputs, in facilitating and/or constraining collection of data on project outcomes, and thereby assessment of whether projects were successful. Our study identified a number of direct and indirect barriers that affected the capacity of projects to carry out informative evaluations and generate knowledge on conservation progress in Samoa. These attributes and mechanisms include: the availability and management of data, design and planning of projects, and systems for reporting among donors and proponents. To overcome these barriers to evaluation, we believe that a shift in institutional approaches to reporting outcomes is needed, from a reflective way of thinking to a more prospective outlook