Approximating the DGP of China's Quarterly GDP

We demonstrate that the data generating process (DGP) of China’s cumulated quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices), as it is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, can be (very closely) approximated by a simple rule. This rule is that annual growth in any quarter is equal to annual growth in its previous quarter plus an error term that is only nonzero in the first quarter of each year and with small variance. We show that this rule fits the data for 1992Q1 to 2005Q4 well, for total GDP as well for its three sector-specific components. It also gives accurate forecasts for 2006Q1 to 2009Q4. We also study the time series properties of GDP growth in constant prices, and show that these series behave as random walks, with much larger error variance.

Does news on real Chinese GDP growth impact stock markets?

Real GDP growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China “cooks its booksâ€, that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy, September 3, 2009). If such unreliability is known to stock traders, news on GDP should not impact stock market fluctuations or their volatility. We test this hypothesis for 12 series with daily stock market returns for the years 2006 to and including 2009.China;Gross Domestic Product

A framework for evaluating flood risk governance

Calls to strengthen flood risk governance are echoed across Europe amidst a growing consensus that floods will increase in the future. Accompanying the pursuit of societal resilience, other normative agendas relating legitimacy (e.g. accountability and public participation), and resource efficiency, have become attached to discussions concerning flood risk governance. Whilst these represent goals against which ‘success’ is socially and politically judged, lacking from the literature is a coherent framework to operationalise these concepts and evaluate the degree to which these are achieved. Drawing from cross-disciplinary and cross-country research conducted within the EU project STAR-FLOOD, this paper presents a framework for evaluating the extent to which flood risk governance arrangements support societal resilience, and demonstrate efficiency and legitimacy. Through empirical research in England, this paper critically reflects on the value of this approach in terms of identifying entry points to strengthen governance in the pursuit of these goals

Space Telescope digicon technology

The objective of this program was to develop the technology and construct a number of tubes conforming to the chosen configuration. A total of ten starts were made and ten tubes went through to test. Of the ten tubes three were CsI on LiF, six were CsTe on MgF2 and one was KNaCsSb on SiO2. All three faceplate crystals sealed successfully using indium as the sealant. In addition, a number of test seals were made and two photocathode sample runs were made. The tasks E-field, faceplate, anti-corona and electron optical analysis were actively pursued and the results integrated into the BASD HRS project

Are Chinese Individuals prone to Money Illusion?

Using a unique dataset collected through a well-established survey, which was carried out in China, we examine whether Chinese individuals are prone to money illusion. In contrast to the outcomes for US individuals, we find that the Chinese are more likely to base decisions on the real monetary value of economic transactions. We put these observed differences in findings in perspective by comparing the economic conditions in the US and China

Approximating the DGP of China's Quarterly GDP

We demonstrate that the data generating process (DGP) of China’s cumulated quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices), as it is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, can be (very closely) approximated by a simple rule. This rule is that annual growth in any quarter is equal to annual growth in its previous quarter plus an error term that is only nonzero in the first quarter of each year and with small variance. We show that this rule fits the data for 1992Q1 to 2005Q4 well, for total GDP as well for its three sector-specific components. It also gives accurate forecasts for 2006Q1 to 2009Q4. We also study the time series properties of GDP growth in constant prices, and show that these series behave as random walks, with much larger error variance

Does news on real Chinese GDP growth impact stock markets?

Real GDP growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China “cooks its books”, that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture (Foreign Policy, September 3, 2009). If such unreliability is known to stock traders, news on GDP should not impact stock market fluctuations or their volatility. We test this hypothesis for 12 series with daily stock market returns for the years 2006 to and including 2009

Semicircular canals circumvent Brownian Motion overload of mechanoreceptor hair cells

<p>Vertebrate semicircular canals (SCC) first appeared in the vertebrates (i.e. ancestral fish) over 600 million years ago. In SCC the principal mechanoreceptors are hair cells, which as </p><p>compared to cochlear hair cells are distinctly longer (70 vs. 7 μm), 10 times more compliant to bending (44 vs. 500 nN/m), and have a 100-fold higher tip displacement threshold (&lt; 10 μm vs. &lt;400 nm).We have developed biomechanical models of vertebrate hair cells where the </p><p>bundle is approximated as a stiff, cylindrical elastic rod subject to friction and thermal agitation. Our models suggest that the above differences aid SCC hair cells in circumventing the masking effects of Brownian motion noise of about 70 nm, and thereby permit transduction of </p><p>very low frequency (&lt;10 Hz) signals.We observe that very low frequency mechanoreception </p><p>requires increased stimulus amplitude, and argue that this is adaptive to circumvent Brownian motion overload at the hair bundles. We suggest that the selective advantage of detecting such low frequency stimuli may have favoured the evolution of large guiding structures such as semicircular canals and otoliths to overcome Brownian Motion noise at the level of the mechanoreceptors of the SCC.</p