Economically optimal timing for crop disease control under uncertainty: an options approach

Severe large-scale disease and pest infestations in agricultural regions can cause significant economic damage. Understanding if and when disease control measures should be taken in the presence of risk and uncertainty is a key issue. We develop a framework to examine the economically optimal timing of treatment. The decision to treat should only be undertaken when the benefits exceed the costs by a certain amount and not if they are merely equal to or greater than the costs as standard net-present-value (NPV) analysis suggests. This criterion leads to a reduction in fungicide use. We investigate the effect of the model for disease progress on the value required for immediate treatment by comparing two standard models for disease increase (exponential and logistic growth). Analyses show that the threshold value of benefits required for immediate release of treatment varies significantly with the relative duration of the agricultural season, the intrinsic rate of increase of the disease and the level of uncertainty in disease progression. In comparing the performance of the delay strategy introduced here with the conventional NPV approach, we show how the degree of uncertainty affects the benefits of delaying control

Effects of Livelihood Sustenance Activities on Off-Farm Income of Poultry Farmers in IMO State, Nigeria

The study analysed the off farm income and its effect on livelihood sustenance of poultry farmers in Imo state.Multistage sampling technique was used to select 120 respondents. Data for the study were obtained with the aid of structured questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics and ordinary least square bivariate regression model. Results showed that: the mean off-farm income of poultry farmers was N410223 per annum. Livelihood sustenance activities of poultry farmers positively and significantly affected their off-farm income. It is recommend that government should come up policies that will center on establishment of more livelihood sustenance activities for poultry farmers that will generate increased off-farm income and promote agricultural development simultaneously

Balancing Detection and Eradication for Control of Epidemics: Sudden Oak Death in Mixed-Species Stands

Culling of infected individuals is a widely used measure for the control of several plant and animal pathogens but culling first requires detection of often cryptically-infected hosts. In this paper, we address the problem of how to allocate resources between detection and culling when the budget for disease management is limited. The results are generic but we motivate the problem for the control of a botanical epidemic in a natural ecosystem: sudden oak death in mixed evergreen forests in coastal California, in which species composition is generally dominated by a spreader species (bay laurel) and a second host species (coast live oak) that is an epidemiological dead-end in that it does not transmit infection but which is frequently a target for preservation. Using a combination of an epidemiological model for two host species with a common pathogen together with optimal control theory we address the problem of how to balance the allocation of resources for detection and epidemic control in order to preserve both host species in the ecosystem. Contrary to simple expectations our results show that an intermediate level of detection is optimal. Low levels of detection, characteristic of low effort expended on searching and detection of diseased trees, and high detection levels, exemplified by the deployment of large amounts of resources to identify diseased trees, fail to bring the epidemic under control. Importantly, we show that a slight change in the balance between the resources allocated to detection and those allocated to control may lead to drastic inefficiencies in control strategies. The results hold when quarantine is introduced to reduce the ingress of infected material into the region of interest

Performance evaluation of turbulence-accentuated interchannel crosstalk for hybrid fibre and free-space optical wavelength-division-multiplexing systems using digital pulse-position modulation

A hybrid fibre and free-space optical communication link using digital pulse-position modulation (DPPM) in a wavelength-division-multiplexing system is proposed. Such a system, which could provide a power efficient, robust and flexible solution to high-speed access networks, is a contender for a passive optical network solution and could readily be deployed in areas with restrictions in optical fibre installation, or alternatively as a disaster recovery network. Interchannel crosstalk and atmospheric turbulence are major impairments in such a system and could combine in some cases to degrade the system. Both impairments are investigated here and the results are presented in the form of bit error probability, required optical transmission power and power penalties. Depending on the position of the interferer relative to the desired user, power penalties of about 0.2–3.0 dB for weak turbulence and above 20 dB for strong turbulence regimes are reported for bit error rate of 10−6. DPPM scheme with a coding level of 2 show about 2 dB improvements over on–off-keying scheme

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Developmental Regulation of Genes Encoding Universal Stress Proteins in Schistosoma mansoni

The draft nuclear genome sequence of the snail-transmitted, dimorphic, parasitic, platyhelminth Schistosoma mansoni revealed eight genes encoding proteins that contain the Universal Stress Protein (USP) domain. Schistosoma mansoni is a causative agent of human schistosomiasis, a severe and debilitating Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) of poverty, which is endemic in at least 76 countries. The availability of the genome sequences of Schistosoma species presents opportunities for bioinformatics and genomics analyses of associated gene families that could be targets for understanding schistosomiasis ecology, intervention, prevention and control. Proteins with the USP domain are known to provide bacteria, archaea, fungi, protists and plants with the ability to respond to diverse environmental stresses. In this research investigation, the functional annotations of the USP genes and predicted nucleotide and protein sequences were initially verified. Subsequently, sequence clusters and distinctive features of the sequences were determined. A total of twelve ligand binding sites were predicted based on alignment to the ATP-binding universal stress protein from Methanocaldococcus jannaschii. In addition, six USP sequences showed the presence of ATP-binding motif residues indicating that they may be regulated by ATP. Public domain gene expression data and RT-PCR assays confirmed that all the S. mansoni USP genes were transcribed in at least one of the developmental life cycle stages of the helminth. Six of these genes were up-regulated in the miracidium, a free-swimming stage that is critical for transmission to the snail intermediate host. It is possible that during the intra-snail stages, S. mansoni gene transcripts for universal stress proteins are low abundant and are induced to perform specialized functions triggered by environmental stressors such as oxidative stress due to hydrogen peroxide that is present in the snail hemocytes. This report serves to catalyze the formation of a network of researchers to understand the function and regulation of the universal stress proteins encoded in genomes of schistosomes and their snail intermediate hosts

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Continuity of midwifery care and gestational weight gain in obese women: a randomised controlled trial

Background: The increased prevalence of obesity in pregnant women in Australia and other developed countries is a significant public health concern. Obese women are at increased risk of serious perinatal complications and guidelines recommend weight gain restriction and additional care. There is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of dietary and physical activity lifestyle interventions in preventing adverse perinatal outcomes and new strategies need to be evaluated. The primary aim of this project is to evaluate the effect of continuity of midwifery care on restricting gestational weight gain in obese women to the recommended range. The secondary aims of the study are to assess the impact of continuity of midwifery care on: women&rsquo;s experience of pregnancy care; women&rsquo;s satisfaction with care and a range of psychological factors.Methods/Design: A two arm randomised controlled trial (RCT) will be conducted with primigravid women recruited from maternity services in Victoria, Australia. Participants will be primigravid women, with a BMI&ge;30 who are less than 17 weeks gestation. Women allocated to the intervention arm will be cared for in a midwifery continuity of care model and receive an informational leaflet on managing weight gain in pregnancy. Women allocated to the control group will receive routine care in addition to the same informational leaflet. Weight gain during pregnancy, standards of care, medical and obstetric information will be extracted from medical records. Data collected at recruitment (self administered survey) and at 36 weeks by postal survey will include sociodemographic information and the use of validated scales to measure secondary outcomes.Discussion: Continuity of midwifery care models are well aligned with current Victorian, Australian and many international government policies on maternity care. Increasingly, midwifery continuity models of care are being introduced in low risk maternity care, and information on their application in high risk populations is required. There is an identified need to trial alternative antenatal interventions to reduce perinatal risk factors for women who are obese and the findings from this project may have application in other maternity services. In addition this study will inform a larger trial that will focus on birth and postnatal outcomes.<br /