Thermodynamic Formalism of the Harmonic Measure of Diffusion Limited Aggregates: Phase Transition and Converged f(α)f(\alpha)

We study the nature of the phase transition in the multifractal formalism of the harmonic measure of Diffusion Limited Aggregates (DLA). Contrary to previous work that relied on random walk simulations or ad-hoc models to estimate the low probability events of deep fjord penetration, we employ the method of iterated conformal maps to obtain an accurate computation of the probability of the rarest events. We resolve probabilities as small as $10^{-70}$. We show that the generalized dimensions $D_q$ are infinite for $q<q^*$, where $q^*= -0.17\pm 0.02$. In the language of $f(\alpha)$ this means that $\alpha_{max}$ is finite. We present a converged $f(\alpha)$ curve.Comment: accepted for Physical Review Letter

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon

Bi-Laplacian Growth Patterns in Disordered Media

Experiments in quasi 2-dimensional geometry (Hele Shaw cells) in which a fluid is injected into a visco-elastic medium (foam, clay or associating-polymers) show patterns akin to fracture in brittle materials, very different from standard Laplacian growth patterns of viscous fingering. An analytic theory is lacking since a pre-requisite to describing the fracture of elastic material is the solution of the bi-Laplace rather than the Laplace equation. In this Letter we close this gap, offering a theory of bi-Laplacian growth patterns based on the method of iterated conformal maps.Comment: Submitted to PRL. For further information see http://www.weizmann.ac.il/chemphys/ander

Stress field around arbitrarily shaped cracks in two-dimensional elastic materials

The calculation of the stress field around an arbitrarily shaped crack in an infinite two-dimensional elastic medium is a mathematically daunting problem. With the exception of few exactly soluble crack shapes the available results are based on either perturbative approaches or on combinations of analytic and numerical techniques. We present here a general solution of this problem for any arbitrary crack. Along the way we develop a method to compute the conformal map from the exterior of a circle to the exterior of a line of arbitrary shape, offering it as a superior alternative to the classical Schwartz-Cristoffel transformation. Our calculation results in an accurate estimate of the full stress field and in particular of the stress intensity factors K_I and K_{II} and the T-stress which are essential in the theory of fracture.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted for PR

Quasi-Static Fractures in Disordered Media and Iterated Conformal Maps

We study the geometrical characteristic of quasi-static fractures in disordered media, using iterated conformal maps to determine the evolution of the fracture pattern. This method allows an efficient and accurate solution of the Lam\'e equations without resorting to lattice models. Typical fracture patterns exhibit increased ramification due to the increase of the stress at the tips. We find the roughness exponent of the experimentally relevant backbone of the fracture pattern; it crosses over from about 0.5 for small scales to about 0.75 for large scales, in excellent agreement with experiments. We propose that this cross-over reflects the increased ramification of the fracture pattern.Comment: submitted to Physical Review Letter

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Conformal mapping methods for interfacial dynamics

The article provides a pedagogical review aimed at graduate students in materials science, physics, and applied mathematics, focusing on recent developments in the subject. Following a brief summary of concepts from complex analysis, the article begins with an overview of continuous conformal-map dynamics. This includes problems of interfacial motion driven by harmonic fields (such as viscous fingering and void electromigration), bi-harmonic fields (such as viscous sintering and elastic pore evolution), and non-harmonic, conformally invariant fields (such as growth by advection-diffusion and electro-deposition). The second part of the article is devoted to iterated conformal maps for analogous problems in stochastic interfacial dynamics (such as diffusion-limited aggregation, dielectric breakdown, brittle fracture, and advection-diffusion-limited aggregation). The third part notes that all of these models can be extended to curved surfaces by an auxilliary conformal mapping from the complex plane, such as stereographic projection to a sphere. The article concludes with an outlook for further research.Comment: 37 pages, 12 (mostly color) figure

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR