The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition

An Ontological Analysis of Justice

IT systems design and architecture have many similarities with the design of organisations and institutions. Both pay attention to social concepts such as rules, norms, and values. Justice is one of the key concepts that can be relevant for any institutional design from a systems perspective. This paper outlines an ontology of justice based on the Unified Foundational Ontology (UFO). We envisage that it can support designers in recognising and addressing the issues of justice during systems design and analysis, including elicitation of requirements, rules analysis, systems evaluation, and policy analysis

Pulmonary Arterial Morphometry from Microfocal X-Ray Computed Tomography

The objective of this study was to develop an X-ray computed tomographic method for pulmonary arterial morphometry. The lungs were removed from a rat, and the pulmonary arterial tree was filled with perfluorooctyl bromide to enhance X-ray absorbance. At each of four pulmonary arterial pressures (30, 21, 12, and 5.4 mmHg), the lungs were rotated within the cone of the X-ray beam that was projected from a microfocal X-ray source onto an image intensifier, and 360 images were obtained at 1° increments. The three-dimensional image volumes were reconstructed with isotropic resolution with the use of a cone beam reconstruction algorithm. The luminal diameter and distance from the inlet artery were measured for the main trunk, its immediate branches, and several minor trunks. These data revealed a self-consistent tree structure wherein the portion of the tree downstream from any vessel of a given diameter has a similar structure. Self-consistency allows the entire tree structure to be characterized by measuring the dimensions of only the vessels comprising the main trunk of the tree and its immediate branches. An approach for taking advantage of this property to parameterize the morphometry and distensibility of the pulmonary arterial tree is developed

Operationalizing Resilience Against Natural Disaster Risk: Opportunities, Barriers, and a Way Forward

The risks from floods have been rising globally due to increasing population, urbanization and economic development in hazard prone areas. The number of flood disasters throughout the world nearly doubled in the decade from 2000-2009 compared to the previous decade. There have been more flood disasters in the last four years (2010-2013) than in the whole decade of the 1980's. Evidence indicates that climate change-induced sea level rise, storm surge and more intense flooding will reinforce this trend unless risk management measures are undertaken immediately to well manage future losses and make communities more resilient to flooding. It is widely recognized that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between disaster risk and development: disasters impact development and development impacts disasters. Evidence shows that repeated disasters undermine long-term socio-economic objectives. This is particularly evident in low income countries where disasters can impede the development process. The extensive time required to recover from damage, loss of capacity with which to rebuild and systemic risk negatively affect livelihoods in these countries, in the extreme case trapping people in poverty. In developed countries, recent floods triggered massive economic losses and undermined long-term competitiveness. The impact of disasters is felt most acutely by households and communities. In both developing and developed countries alike, local level studies strongly indicate that the poor suffer disproportionately due to the lack of financial and social safety nets, and institutional representation. Development can affect disaster risk via three main channels: by (1) increasing the physical assets and people exposed to the risk, (2) increasing the capacity to reduce the risk, respond to the risk and recover from the risk and (3) increasing or decreasing the vulnerability based on specific development strategies chosen. We identify this interaction as a key research gap; taking account of and balancing development opportunities with disaster risk will require a paradigm shift in the way we think about and do both development and disaster risk management

Written education materials for stroke patients and their carers: perspectives and practices of health professionals

Inadequacies in the provision of written education materials to stroke patients and their carers have been reported. In this study, 20 stroke team health professionals were surveyed regarding their use of and perspectives on written education materials. Seventy percent of participants provided materials to 25% or fewer stroke patients and 90% believed that patients and carers are only occasionally or rarely provided with sufficient written information. Health professionals were uncertain which team members provided written information and identified the need to improve the quality of materials used. Stroke teams should implement a system that facilitates the routine provision of quality written materials to patients and carers, communication among team members, and documentation and verbal reinforcement of the information provided

Gestaltung von Anpassungspfaden im Klimarisikomanagement. Leitfaden für Entscheidungsträgerinnen und Entscheidungsträger

Entscheidungen im lokalen Management von klimabedingten Risiken, wie z.B. im Hochwasserrisikomanagement, erfolgen regelmäßig sehr rasch nach einem Ereignis, u.a. auch aufgrund massiven Drucks der lokalen Bevölkerung. Dabei werden meist Maßnahmen umgesetzt, die allgemein bekannt sind und dem Stand der Technik entsprechen. Diese singulären und sich an der Vergangenheit orientierenden Entscheidungen führen aber dazu, dass sich das Schadenspotential in den Gemeinden und Regionen meist weiterentwickelt und den zukünftigen Herausforderungen im Risikomanagement aufgrund des Klimawandels nur unzureichend genügt. Deshalb ist es wichtig, aktuelle Pfadabhängigkeiten frühzeitig zu erkennen und eine Entkoppelung davon zu erzielen. Nur so kann ein antizipatives Klimarisikomanagement umgesetzt und verstetigt werden, welches auch über einzelne klimabedingte Risiken hinweg agiert. Der Leitfaden „Gestaltung von Anpassungspfaden im Klimarisikomanagement“ dient als mögliche Erweiterung des „Vorsorgechecks Naturgefahren im Klimawandel“, welcher den Status Quo aller in einer Gemeinde möglichen Naturgefahren abhandelt. Dieser Leitfaden richtet sich somit vorrangig an jene österreichischen Gemeinden, die entweder bereits einen solchen „Naturgefahrencheck“ absolviert haben oder dies in Zukunft noch vorhaben. Der Leitfaden schlägt fünf konkrete Schritte vor, um im Anschluss an die Methodik des Naturgefahrenchecks (1) das Bewusstsein für die Zusammenhänge zwischen einzelnen klimabedingten Risiken zu schärfen, (2) aus den bisher gemachten Erfahrungen im Naturgefahrenmanagement für die „neuen“ Risiken zu lernen und (3) gemeinsam konkrete Maßnahmen zu entwerfen und nächste Umsetzungsschritte zu definieren, wie diese Risiken in Zukunft zusammen gedacht und proaktiv angegangen werden können. Der Leitfaden ist so aufgebaut, dass bei Bedarf auch jeder Schritt als einzelnes gesondertes Erweiterungsmodul für den „Vorsorgechecks Naturgefahren im Klimawandel“ dienen kann

Mislocalization of neuronal tau in the absence of tangle pathology in phosphomutant tau knockin mice.

Hyperphosphorylation and fibrillar aggregation of the microtubule-associated protein tau are key features of Alzheimer's disease and other tauopathies. To investigate the involvement of tau phosphorylation in the pathological process, we generated a pair of complementary phosphomutant tau knockin mouse lines. One exclusively expresses phosphomimetic tau with 18 glutamate substitutions at serine and/or threonine residues in the proline-rich and first microtubule-binding domains to model hyperphosphorylation, whereas its phosphodefective counterpart has matched alanine substitutions. Consistent with expected effects of genuine phosphorylation, association of the phosphomimetic tau with microtubules and neuronal membranes is severely disrupted in vivo, whereas the phosphodefective mutations have more limited or no effect. Surprisingly, however, age-related mislocalization of tau is evident in both lines, although redistribution appears more widespread and more pronounced in the phosphomimetic tau knockin. Despite these changes, we found no biochemical or immunohistological evidence of pathological tau aggregation in mice of either line up to at least 2 years of age. These findings raise important questions about the role of tau phosphorylation in driving pathology in human tauopathies

To sit or stand? A preliminary, cross sectional study to investigate if there is a difference in glenohumeral subluxation in sitting or standing in people following stroke

Background: Glenohumeral subluxation (GHS) is a common symptom following stroke. Many therapists postulate that GHS may be reduced if the base of support (BOS) is reduced and the centre of mass (COM) is raised as this requires greater postural muscle activity. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this practice. Objective: The aim of this preliminary study was to investigate if the amount of GHS alters from sitting to standing. Study design: A cross sectional, within-subject design in a convenience sample of 15 stroke patients with GHS was utilised. Methods: A prospective design was used with a single blinded tester who assessed GHS using the calliper method in sitting, standing and on return to sitting. Friedman and post hoc Wilcoxon tests showed that GHS was significantly reduced in standing compared to sitting (p <0.05) but this reduction was not maintained on return to sitting (p = 0.25). Conclusions: The results of this study are limited by its small size. However, these results indicate that reducing BOS during rehabilitation may improve GHS after stroke. Whilst the maintenance of benefit is not established, these findings suggest that reducing BOS as part of treatment may help patients with GHS. Further research is now required to replicate these results in a larger sample and to directly examine shoulder muscle activity to investigate which muscles may influence GHS in response to changing BOS. Future work could also aim to determine whether the reduction in GHS was directly attributable to a reduced BOS or the effort associated with moving from sitting to standing

Bioenergy production and sustainable development: science base for policymaking remains limited

The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policymaking. Our results indicate that knowledge on the sustainable development impacts of bioenergy production is concentrated in a few well-studied countries, focuses on environmental and economic impacts, and mostly relates to dedicated agricultural biomass plantations. The scope and methodological approaches in studies differ widely and only a small share of the studies sufficiently reports on context and/or baseline conditions, which makes it difficult to get a general understanding of the attribution of impacts. Nevertheless, we identified regional patterns of positive or negative impacts for all categories – environmental, economic, institutional, social and technological. In general, economic and technological impacts were more frequently reported as positive, while social and environmental impacts were more frequently reported as negative (with the exception of impacts on direct substitution of GHG emission from fossil fuel). More focused and transparent research is needed to validate these patterns and develop a strong science underpinning for establishing policies and governance agreements that prevent/mitigate negative and promote positive impacts from bioenergy production