The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modeling assessment

Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners

Difficulties in estimating the human burden of canine rabies

Current passive surveillance data for canine rabies, particularly for the regions where the burden is highest, are inadequate for appropriate decision making on control efforts. Poor enforcement of existing legislation and poor implementation of international guidance reduce the effectiveness of surveillance systems, but another set of problems relates to the fact that canine rabies is an untreatable condition which affects very poor sectors of society. This results in an unknown, but potentially large proportion of rabies victims dying outside the health system, deaths that are unlikely to be recorded by surveillance systems based on health center records. This article critically evaluates the potential sources of information on the number of human deaths attributable to canine rabies, and how we might improve the estimates required to move towards the goal of global canine rabies elimination

Changes in the McGurk Effect Across Phonetic Contexts

To investigate the process underlying audiovisual speech perception, the McGurk illusion was examined across a range of phonetic contexts. Two major changes were found. First, the frequency of illusory /g/ fusion percepts increased relative to the frequency of illusory /d/ fusion percepts as vowel context was shifted from /i/ to /a/ to /u/. This trend could not be explained by biases present in perception of the unimodal visual stimuli. However, the change found in the McGurk fusion effect across vowel environments did correspond systematically with changes in second format frequency patterns across contexts. Second, the order of consonants in illusory combination percepts was found to depend on syllable type. This may be due to differences occuring across syllable contexts in the timecourses of inputs from the two modalities as delaying the auditory track of a vowel-consonant stimulus resulted in a change in the order of consonants perceived. Taken together, these results suggest that the speech perception system either fuses audiovisual inputs into a visually compatible percept with a similar second formant pattern to that of the acoustic stimulus or interleaves the information from different modalities, at a phonemic or subphonemic level, based on their relative arrival times.National Institutes of Health (R01 DC02852

Response to a rabies epidemic in Bali, Indonesia

Emergency vaccinations and culling failed to contain an outbreak of rabies in Bali, Indonesia, during 2008–2009. Subsequent island-wide mass vaccination (reaching 70% coverage, >200,000 dogs) led to substantial declines in rabies incidence and spread. However, the incidence of dog bites remains high, and repeat campaigns are necessary to eliminate rabies in Bali

A Bayesian approach for inferring the dynamics of partially observed endemic infectious diseases from space-time-genetic data

We describe a statistical framework for reconstructing the sequence of transmission events between observed cases of an endemic infectious disease using genetic, temporal and spatial information. Previous approaches to reconstructing transmission trees have assumed all infections in the study area originated from a single introduction and that a large fraction of cases were observed. There are as yet no approaches appropriate for endemic situations in which a disease is already well established in a host population and in which there may be multiple origins of infection, or that can enumerate unobserved infections missing from the sample. Our proposed framework addresses these shortcomings, enabling reconstruction of partially observed transmission trees and estimating the number of cases missing from the sample. Analyses of simulated datasets show the method to be accurate in identifying direct transmissions, while introductions and transmissions via one or more unsampled intermediate cases could be identified at high to moderate levels of case detection. When applied to partial genome sequences of rabies virus sampled from an endemic region of South Africa, our method reveals several distinct transmission cycles with little contact between them, and direct transmission over long distances suggesting significant anthropogenic influence in the movement of infected dogs

Multifractal nature of ocular aberration dynamics of the human eye

Ocular monochromatic aberrations display dynamic behavior even when the eye is fixating on a stationary stimulus. The fluctuations are commonly characterized in the frequency domain using the power spectrum obtained via the Fourier transform. In this paper we used a wavelet-based multifractal analytical approach to provide a more in depth analysis of the nature of the aberration fluctuations. The aberrations of five subjects were measured at 21 Hz using an open-view Shack-Hartmann sensor. We show that the aberration dynamics are multifractal. The most frequently occurring Hölder exponent for the rms wavefront error, averaged across the five subjects, was 0.31 ± 0.10. This suggests that the time course of the aberration fluctuations is antipersistant. Future applications of multifractal analysis are discussed

To assess and be assessed: Upper secondary school students’ narratives of credibility judgements

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how students construct narratives of themselves as information seekers in a school context where their descriptions of their information activities are assessed and graded. Design/methodology/approach – Blog posts on credibility judgements written by 28 students at a Swedish upper secondary school were analysed through a bottom-up coding process based in the sociocultural concept of narratives of selves. Findings – Two tensions in the students’ accounts are identified. The first tension is that between the description of the individual, independent student and the description of the good group member. The second tension is between describing oneself as an independent information seeker and at the same time as someone who seeks information in ways that are sanctioned within the school setting. Research limitations/implications – The study focuses on a specific social practice and on situated activities, but also illustrates some aspects of information activities that pertain to educational contexts in general. It explores how social norms related to credibility judgements are expressed and negotiated in discursive interaction. Practical implications – The study highlights that when information activities become objects of assessment, careful consideration of what aspects are meant to be assessed is necessary. Originality/value – The study is based on the idea of information activities as socially and discursively shaped, and it illustrates some of the consequences when information activities become objects of teaching, learning, and grading

Mortality of fish subjected to explosive shock as applied to oil well severance on Georges Bank

A very extensive bibliography of papers on underwater explosions and their effects on marine life has been collected and summarized. When exposed to blast effects, vertebrates with swim bladders or lungs that contain gas are at least an order of magnitude more sensitive than other life. Regression analysis of several different experiments on explosive damage to fish has been combined with reports of fish concentrations and explosives used in oil well severance in order to estimate the probable extent of damage to fish populations from a limited number of severance explosions. Damage per explosion should not be significant and is probably considerably less than that caused by a one hour tow of a bottom trawl net.Prepared for the Technology Assessment and Research Program of the Minerals Management Service, Department of the Interior, under Contract 14-08-0001-18920

An overview of early investigational drugs for the treatment of human papilloma virus infection and associated dysplasia

Introduction: High-risk HPV (HR-HPV) related invasive cervical cancer (ICC) causes >270,000 deaths per annum world-wide with over 85% of these occurring in low-resource countries. Ablative and excisional treatment modalities are restricted for use with high-grade pre-cancerous cervical disease with HPV infection and low-grade dysplasia mostly managed by a watch-and-wait policy.Areas Covered: Various pharmacological approaches have been investigated as non-destructive alternatives for the treatment of HR-HPV infection and associated dysplasia. These are discussed dealing with efficacy, ease-of-use (physician or self-applied), systemic or locally applied, side-effects, cost and risks. The main focus is the perceived impact on current clinical practice of a self-applied, effective and safe pharmacological anti-HPV treatment.Expert opinion: Current prophylactic HPV vaccines are expensive, HPV type restricted and have little effect in already infected women. Therapeutic vaccines are under development but are also HPV type-restricted. At present, the developed nations use national cytology screening and surgical procedures to treat only women identified with HPV-related high-grade dysplastic disease. However, since HPV testing is rapidly replacing cytology as the test-of-choice, a suitable topically-applied and low-cost antiviral treatment could be an ideal solution for treatment of HPV infection per se with test-of-cure carried out by repeat HPV testing. Cytology would only then be necessary for women who remained HPV positive. Although of significant benefit in the developed countries, combining such a treatment with self-sampled HPV testing could revolutionise the management of this disease in the developing world which lack both the infrastructure and resources to establish national cytology screening programs