Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

The Ursinus Weekly, April 16, 1951

May Day cast chosen; Practices begin this week • Arsenic and Old Lace is underway • Methods discussed by archaeologist • John Billman named head of IRC for coming year • McClure urges students to take army tests • French Club to present pianist, vocalists in recital • 35 Weekly workers honored at banquet • Varsity Club plans big weekend; Variety show, dance listed April 27, 28 • Ursinus to be honored by Newcomen Society May 24 • Self-help jobs available; Letters must be written • Many jobs available to Spring graduates • \u2751ers forced to break up as Fisher must leave for U.S. Navy service • Editorials: Opinions sought; Honor comes to Ursinus • Letters to the editor • Advice to book buyers • Truman decision upheld • Junior Prom traditions seen through years; Theme varies • Poll reveals students\u27 views on MacArthur ouster • Local character, Little Mink, writes parents about college • Preparing catalogue is year-round job, Dr. Phillips says • Moravian beats Ursinus in first home game, 7-3 • Mrs. Whiting stars as player, coach • Bruin team loses fourth straight to Temple nine • Bears defeated in trial meet • Movie to be shown • Two fireside chats planned for separate meetings April 18https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/weekly/1565/thumbnail.jp

Carcinogenic Effects in a Phenylketonuria Mouse Model

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is a metabolic disorder caused by impaired phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH). This condition results in hyperphenylalaninemia and elevated levels of abnormal phenylalanine metabolites, among which is phenylacetic acid/phenylacetate (PA). In recent years, PA and its analogs were found to have anticancer activity against a variety of malignancies suggesting the possibility that PKU may offer protection against cancer through chronically elevated levels of PA. We tested this hypothesis in a genetic mouse model of PKU (PAHenu2) which has a biochemical profile that closely resembles that of human PKU. Plasma levels of phenylalanine in homozygous (HMZ) PAHenu2 mice were >12-fold those of heterozygous (HTZ) littermates while tyrosine levels were reduced. Phenylketones, including PA, were also markedly elevated to the range seen in the human disease. Mice were subjected to 7,12 dimethylbenz[a]anthracene (DMBA) carcinogenesis, a model which is sensitive to the anticancer effects of the PA derivative 4-chlorophenylacetate (4-CPA). Tumor induction by DMBA was not significantly different between the HTZ and HMZ mice, either in total tumor development or in the type of cancers that arose. HMZ mice were then treated with 4-CPA as positive controls for the anticancer effects of PA and to evaluate its possible effects on phenylalanine metabolism in PKU mice. 4-CPA had no effect on the plasma concentrations of phenylalanine, phenylketones, or tyrosine. Surprisingly, the HMZ mice treated with 4-CPA developed an unexplained neuromuscular syndrome which precluded its use in these animals as an anticancer agent. Together, these studies support the use of PAHenu2 mice as a model for studying human PKU. Chronically elevated levels of PA in the PAHenu2 mice were not protective against cancer

Addressing Cervical Cancer Disparities in Texas: Expansion of a Community-Based Prevention initiative For Medically Underserved Populations

Although cervical cancer is preventable, significant disparities exist in access to screening and prevention services. In medically underserved areas (MUAs) of Texas, these rates are 55% higher compared to the remainder of the US. In 2019, we expanded a multicomponent, comprehensive program to improve cervical cancer prevention in partnership with 13 clinics and mobile vans in MUAs of Texas. Our multicomponent intervention program consists of community education and patient navigation coupled with a training/mentoring program for local medical providers to perform diagnostic procedures and treatment for patients with abnormal screening results. Hands-on training courses to learn these skills are coupled with biweekly telementoring conferences using Project ECHO® (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes). This program was implemented in 2015 and expanded to other MUAs in Texas in 2019. From March 2019 to August 2022, 75,842 individuals were educated about cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccination. A total of 44,781 women underwent screening for cervical cancer, and 2,216 underwent colposcopy and 264 underwent LEEP. High-grade cervical dysplasia was diagnosed in 658 individuals and invasive cervical cancer in 33 individuals. We trained 22 providers to perform colposcopy and/or LEEP. In addition, 78 Project ECHO telementoring sessions were held with an average of 42 attendees per session, with 72 individual patient cases discussed. Our comprehensive community-based prevention initiative for medically underserved populations has led to a significant number of individuals undergoing cervical cancer screening in MUAs, as well as improved access to colposcopy and LEEP services

Precipitation control over inorganic nitrogen import-export budgets across watersheds: a synthesis of long-term ecological research

ABSTRACT We investigated long-term and seasonal patterns of N imports and exports, as well as patterns following climate perturbations, across biomes using data from 15 watersheds from nine Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in North America. Mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) import-export budgets (N import via precipitation-N export via stream flow) for common years across all watersheds was highly variable, ranging from a net loss of 0Ð17 š 0Ð09 kg N ha 1 mo 1 to net retention of 0Ð68 š 0Ð08 kg N ha 1 mo 1 . The net retention of DIN decreased (smaller import-export budget) with increasing precipitation, as well as with increasing variation in precipitation during the winter, spring, and fall. Averaged across all seasons, net DIN retention decreased as the coefficient of variation (CV) in precipitation increased across all sites (r 2 D 0Ð48, p D 0Ð005). This trend was made stronger when the disturbed watersheds were withheld from the analysis (r 2 D 0Ð80, p < 0Ð001, n D 11). Thus, DIN exports were either similar to or exceeded imports in the tropical, boreal, and wet coniferous watersheds, whereas imports exceeded exports in temperate deciduous watersheds. In general, forest harvesting, hurricanes, or floods corresponded with periods of increased DIN exports relative to imports. Periods when water throughput within a watershed was likely to be lower (i.e. low snow pack or El Niño years) corresponded with decreased DIN exports relative to imports. These data provide a basis for ranking diverse sites in terms of their ability to retain DIN in the context of changing precipitation regimes likely to occur in the future

Antenatal allopurinol for reduction of birth asphyxia induced brain damage (ALLO-Trial); a randomized double blind placebo controlled multicenter study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy is associated with development of cerebral palsy and cognitive disability later in life and is therefore one of the fundamental problems in perinatal medicine. The xanthine-oxidase inhibitor allopurinol reduces the formation of free radicals, thereby limiting the amount of hypoxia-reperfusion damage. In case of suspected intra-uterine hypoxia, both animal and human studies suggest that maternal administration of allopurinol immediately prior to delivery reduces hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The proposed trial is a randomized double blind placebo controlled multicenter study in pregnant women at term in whom the foetus is suspected of intra-uterine hypoxia.</p> <p>Allopurinol 500 mg IV or placebo will be administered antenatally to the pregnant woman when foetal hypoxia is suspected. Foetal distress is being diagnosed by the clinician as an abnormal or non-reassuring foetal heart rate trace, preferably accompanied by either significant ST-wave abnormalities (as detected by the STAN-monitor) or an abnormal foetal blood scalp sampling (pH < 7.20).</p> <p>Primary outcome measures are the amount of S100B (a marker for brain tissue damage) and the severity of oxidative stress (measured by isoprostane, neuroprostane, non protein bound iron and hypoxanthine), both measured in umbilical cord blood. Secondary outcome measures are neonatal mortality, serious composite neonatal morbidity and long-term neurological outcome. Furthermore pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics will be investigated.</p> <p>We expect an inclusion of 220 patients (110 per group) to be feasible in an inclusion period of two years. Given a suspected mean value of S100B of 1.05 ug/L (SD 0.37 ug/L) in the placebo group this trial has a power of 90% (alpha 0.05) to detect a mean value of S100B of 0.89 ug/L (SD 0.37 ug/L) in the 'allopurinol-treated' group (z-test_2-sided). Analysis will be by intention to treat and it allows for one interim analysis.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In this trial we aim to answer the question whether antenatal allopurinol administration reduces hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy in neonates exposed to foetal hypoxia.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>Clinical Trials, protocol registration system: NCT00189007</p

Persistence of dissolved organic matter explained by molecular changes during its passage through soil

Dissolved organic matter affects fundamental biogeochemical processes in the soil such as nutrient cycling and organic matter storage. The current paradigm is that processing of dissolved organic matter converges to recalcitrant molecules (those that resist degradation) of low molecular mass and high molecular diversity through biotic and abiotic processes. Here we demonstrate that the molecular composition and properties of dissolved organic matter continuously change during soil passage and propose that this reflects a continual shifting of its sources. Using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we studied the molecular changes of dissolved organic matter from the soil surface to 60 cm depth in 20 temperate grassland communities in soil type Eutric Fluvisol. Applying a semi-quantitative approach, we observed that plant-derived molecules were first broken down into molecules containing a large proportion of low-molecular-mass compounds. These low-molecular-mass compounds became less abundant during soil passage, whereas larger molecules, depleted in plant-related ligno-cellulosic structures, became more abundant. These findings indicate that the small plant-derived molecules were preferentially consumed by microorganisms and transformed into larger microbial-derived molecules. This suggests that dissolved organic matter is not intrinsically recalcitrant but instead persists in soil as a result of simultaneous consumption, transformation and formation

Two Types of Planning in Neighborhoods

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68338/2/10.1177_0739456X8400300209.pd