Determinism and inevitability

In Freedom Evolves, Dan Dennett embarks on his second book-length attempt to lay to rest the deep metaphysical concerns that many philosophers have expressed about the possibility of human freedom.One of his main objectives in the earlier chapters of the book is to make determinism appear less threatening to our prospects for free agency than it has sometimes seemed, by attempting to show that a deterministic universe would not necessarily be a universe of which it could truly be said that everything that occurs in it is inevitable. In this paper, I want to consider Dennett’s striking argument for this conclusion in some detail. I shall begin by suggesting that on its most natural interpretation, the argument is vulnerable to a serious objection. I shall then develop a second interpretation which is more promising than the first, but will argue that without placing more weight on etymological considerations than they can really bear, it can deliver, at best, only a significantly qualified version of the conclusion that Dennett is seeking. However, although I shall be arguing that his central argument fails, it is also part of the purpose of this paper to build on what I regard as some rather insightful and suggestive material which is developed by Dennett in the course of elaborating his views. His own development of these ideas is hampered, so I shall argue, by a framework for thinking about possibility that is too crude to accommodate the immense subtlety and complexity which is exhibited by the workings of the modal verb ‘can’ and its past tense form, ‘could’; and also, I believe, by the mistaken conviction, on Dennett’s part, that any naturalistically respectable solution to the problem of free will would have to be of a compatibilist stripe. I shall attempt, in the second half of the paper, to explain what seems to me to be wrong with the framework, and to make some points about the functioning of ‘can’ and ‘could’, which I believe any adequate replacement for Dennett’s framework must respect. Ironically, though, I shall argue that it is the rejection of Dennett’s own framework which holds the key to understanding how to defend the spirit (if not the letter) of his thoughts about the invulnerability of our ordinary modal thinking to alleged threats from determinism

Extremely Anisotropic Scintillations

A small number of quasars exhibit interstellar scintillation on time-scales less than an hour; their scintillation patterns are all known to be anisotropic. Here we consider a totally anisotropic model in which the scintillation pattern is effectively one-dimensional. For the persistent rapid scintillators J1819+3845 and PKS1257-326 we show that this model offers a good description of the two-station time-delay measurements and the annual cycle in the scintillation time-scale. Generalising the model to finite anisotropy yields a better match to the data but the improvement is not significant and the two additional parameters which are required to describe this model are not justified by the existing data. The extreme anisotropy we infer for the scintillation patterns must be attributed to the scattering medium rather than a highly elongated source. For J1819+3845 the totally anisotropic model predicts that the particular radio flux variations seen between mid July and late August should repeat between late August and mid November, and then again between mid November and late December as the Earth twice changes its direction of motion across the scintillation pattern. If this effect can be observed then the minor-axis velocity component of the screen and the orientation of that axis can both be precisely determined. In reality the axis ratio is finite, albeit large, and spatial decorrelation of the flux pattern along the major axis may be observable via differences in the pairwise fluxes within this overlap region; in this case we can also constrain both the major-axis velocity component of the screen and the magnitude of the anisotropy.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, MNRAS submitte

Personal and sub-personal: a defence of Dennett's early distinction

Since 1969, when Dennett introduced a distinction between personal and sub‐personal levels of explanation, many philosophers have used ‘sub‐personal’ very loosely, and Dennett himself has abandoned a view of the personal level as genuinely autonomous. I recommend a position in which Dennett's original distinction is crucial, by arguing that the phenomenon called mental causation is on view only at the properly personal level. If one retains the commit‐’ ments incurred by Dennett's early distinction, then one has a satisfactory anti‐physicalistic, anti‐dualist philosophy of mind. It neither interferes with the projects of sub‐personal psychology, nor encourages ; instrumentalism at the personal level. People lose sight of Dennett’s personal/sub-personal distinction because they free it from its philosophical moorings. A distinction that serves a philosophical purpose is typically rooted in doctrine; it cannot be lifted out of context and continue to do its work. So I shall start from Dennett’s distinction as I read it in its original context. And when I speak of ‘the distinction’, I mean to point not only towards the terms that Dennett first used to define it but also towards the philosophical setting within which its work was cut out

The Mod-2 wind turbine development project

A major phase of the Federal Wind Energy Program, the Mod-2 wind turbine, a second-generation machine developed by the Boeing Engineering and Construction Co. for the U.S. Department of Energy and the Lewis Research Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, is described. The Mod-2 is a large (2.5-MW power rating) horizontal-axis wind turbine designed for the generation of electrical power on utility networks. Three machines were built and are located in a cluster at Goodnoe Hills, Washington. All technical aspects of the project are described: design approach, significant innovation features, the mechanical system, the electrical power system, the control system, and the safety system

Asymmetry of jets, lobe size and spectral index in radio galaxies and quasars

We investigate the correlations between spectral index, jet side and extent of the radio lobes for a sample of nearby FRII radio galaxies. In Dennett-Thorpe et al. (1997) we studied a sample of quasars and found that the high surface brightness regions had flatter spectra on the jet side (explicable as a result of Doppler beaming) whilst the extended regions had spectral asymmetries dependent on lobe length. Unified schemes predict that asymmetries due to beaming will be much smaller in narrow-line radio galaxies than in quasars: we therefore investigate in a similar manner, a sample of radio galaxies with detected jets. We find that spectral asymmetries in these objects are uncorrelated with jet sidedness at all brightness levels, but depend on relative lobe volume. Our results are not in conflict with unified schemes, but suggest that the differences between the two samples are due primarily to power or redshift, rather than to orientation. We also show directly that hotspot spectra steepen as a function of radio power or redshift. Whilst a shift in observed frequency due to the redshift may account for some of the steepening, it cannot account for all of it, and a dependence on radio power is required.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRAS, 10 pages; typos/minor correctio

The expressive stance: intentionality, expression, and machine art

This paper proposes a new interpretive stance for interpreting artistic works and performances that is relevant to artificial intelligence research but also has broader implications. Termed the expressive stance, this stance makes intelligible a critical distinction between present-day machine art and human art, but allows for the possibility that future machine art could find a place alongside our own. The expressive stance is elaborated as a response to Daniel Dennett's notion of the intentional stance, which is critically examined with respect to his specialized concept of rationality. The paper also shows that temporal scale implicitly serves to select between different modes of explanation in prominent theories of intentionality. It also considers the implications of the phenomenological background for systems that produce art

Upward nitrate transport by phytoplankton in oceanic waters : balancing nutrient budgets in oligotrophic seas

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PeerJ 2 (2014): e302, doi:10.7717/peerj.302.In oceanic subtropical gyres, primary producers are numerically dominated by small (1–5 µm diameter) pro- and eukaryotic cells that primarily utilize recycled nutrients produced by rapid grazing turnover in a highly efficient microbial loop. Continuous losses of nitrogen (N) to depth by sinking, either as single cells, aggregates or fecal pellets, are balanced by both nitrate inputs at the base of the euphotic zone and N2-fixation. This input of new N to balance export losses (the biological pump) is a fundamental aspect of N cycling and central to understanding carbon fluxes in the ocean. In the Pacific Ocean, detailed N budgets at the time-series station HOT require upward transport of nitrate from the nutricline (80–100 m) into the surface layer (∼0–40 m) to balance productivity and export needs. However, concentration gradients are negligible and cannot support the fluxes. Physical processes can inject nitrate into the base of the euphotic zone, but the mechanisms for transporting this nitrate into the surface layer across many 10s of m in highly stratified systems are unknown. In these seas, vertical migration by the very largest (102–103 µm diameter) phytoplankton is common as a survival strategy to obtain N from sub-euphotic zone depths. This vertical migration is driven by buoyancy changes rather than by flagellated movement and can provide upward N transport as nitrate (mM concentrations) in the cells. However, the contribution of vertical migration to nitrate transport has been difficult to quantify over the required basin scales. In this study, we use towed optical systems and isotopic tracers to show that migrating diatom (Rhizosolenia) mats are widespread in the N. Pacific Ocean from 140°W to 175°E and together with other migrating phytoplankton (Ethmodiscus, Halosphaera, Pyrocystis, and solitary Rhizosolenia) can mediate time-averaged transport of N (235 µmol N m-2 d-1) equivalent to eddy nitrate injections (242 µmol NO3− m-2 d-1). This upward biotic transport can close N budgets in the upper 250 m of the central Pacific Ocean and together with diazotrophy creates a surface zone where biological nutrient inputs rather than physical processes dominate the new N flux. In addition to these numerically rare large migrators, there is evidence in the literature of ascending behavior in small phytoplankton that could contribute to upward flux as well. Although passive downward movement has dominated models of phytoplankton flux, there is now sufficient evidence to require a rethinking of this paradigm. Quantifying these fluxes is a challenge for the future and requires a reexamination of individual phytoplankton sinking rates as well as methods for capturing and enumerating ascending phytoplankton in the sea.This work has been funded by the National Science Foundation: OCE-0726726, OCE-0094591, OCE-9414372, OCE-9100888 and OCE-9415923 to TAV, and OCE-9423471 to CHP

Post-Turing Methodology: Breaking the Wall on the Way to Artificial General Intelligence

This article offers comprehensive criticism of the Turing test and develops quality criteria for new artificial general intelligence (AGI) assessment tests. It is shown that the prerequisites A. Turing drew upon when reducing personality and human consciousness to “suitable branches of thought” re-flected the engineering level of his time. In fact, the Turing “imitation game” employed only symbolic communication and ignored the physical world. This paper suggests that by restricting thinking ability to symbolic systems alone Turing unknowingly constructed “the wall” that excludes any possi-bility of transition from a complex observable phenomenon to an abstract image or concept. It is, therefore, sensible to factor in new requirements for AI (artificial intelligence) maturity assessment when approaching the Tu-ring test. Such AI must support all forms of communication with a human being, and it should be able to comprehend abstract images and specify con-cepts as well as participate in social practices

On the influence of the Sun on the rapid variability of compact extragalactic sources

Starting from December 2004, a program for the monitoring of intraday variable sources at a frequency of 5 GHz was performed at the Urumqi Observatory. The analysis of the variability characteristics of the flat-spectrum radio source AO 0235+164 revealed the existence of an annual cycle in the variability amplitude. This appears to correlate with the solar elongation of the source. A thorough analysis of the results of the MASIV IDV survey --- which provides the variability characteristics of a large sample of compact radio sources --- confirms that there is a small but detectable component of the observed fractional modulation which increases with decreasing solar elongation. We discuss the hypothesis that the phenomenon is related to interplanetary scintillation.Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures and 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic