Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Can a Species Keep Pace with a Shifting Climate?

Consider a patch of favorable habitat surrounded by unfavorable habitat and assume that due to a shifting climate, the patch moves with a fixed speed in a one-dimensional universe. Let the patch be inhabited by a population of individuals that reproduce, disperse, and die. Will the population persist? How does the answer depend on the length of the patch, the speed of movement of the patch, the net population growth rate under constant conditions, and the mobility of the individuals? We will answer these questions in the context of a simple dynamic profile model that incorporates climate shift, population dynamics, and migration. The model takes the form of a growth-diffusion equation. We first consider a special case and derive an explicit condition by glueing phase portraits. Then we establish a strict qualitative dichotomy for a large class of models by way of rigorous PDE methods, in particular the maximum principle. The results show that mobility can both reduce and enhance the ability to track climate change that a narrow range can severely reduce this ability and that population range and total population size can both increase and decrease under a moving climate. It is also shown that range shift may be easier to detect at the expanding front, simply because it is considerably steeper than the retreating back

The impacts of environmental warming on Odonata: a review

Climate change brings with it unprecedented rates of increase in environmental temperature, which will have major consequences for the earth's flora and fauna. The Odonata represent a taxon that has many strong links to this abiotic factor due to its tropical evolutionary history and adaptations to temperate climates. Temperature is known to affect odonate physiology including life-history traits such as developmental rate, phenology and seasonal regulation as well as immune function and the production of pigment for thermoregulation. A range of behaviours are likely to be affected which will, in turn, influence other parts of the aquatic ecosystem, primarily through trophic interactions. Temperature may influence changes in geographical distributions, through a shifting of species' fundamental niches, changes in the distribution of suitable habitat and variation in the dispersal ability of species. Finally, such a rapid change in the environment results in a strong selective pressure towards adaptation to cope and the inevitable loss of some populations and, potentially, species. Where data are lacking for odonates, studies on other invertebrate groups will be considered. Finally, directions for research are suggested, particularly laboratory studies that investigate underlying causes of climate-driven macroecological patterns

The role of war in deep transitions: exploring mechanisms, imprints and rules in sociotechnical systems

This paper explores in what ways the two world wars influenced the development of sociotechnical systems underpinning the culmination of the first deep transition. The role of war is an underexplored aspect in both the Techno-Economic Paradigms (TEP) approach and the Multi-level perspective (MLP) which form the two key conceptual building blocks of the Deep Transitions (DT) framework. Thus, we develop a conceptual approach tailored to this particular topic which integrates accounts of total war and mechanisms of war from historical studies and imprinting from organisational studies with the DT framework’s attention towards rules and meta-rules. We explore in what ways the three sociotechnical systems of energy, food, and transport were affected by the emergence of new demand pressures and logistical challenges during conditions of total war; how war impacted the directionality of sociotechnical systems; the extent to which new national and international policy capacities emerged during wartime in the energy, food, and transport systems; and the extent to which these systems were influenced by cooperation and shared sacrifice under wartime conditions. We then explore what lasting changes were influenced by the two wars in the energy, food, and transport systems across the transatlantic zone. This paper seeks to open up a hitherto neglected area in analysis on sociotechnical transitions and we discuss the importance of further research that is attentive towards entanglements of warfare and the military particularly in the field of sustainability transitions

Projecting impacts of anthropogenic climatic change on the bird communities of southern Swedish spruce monocultures : will the species poor get poorer?

The potential impact of climatic change on bird species’ distributions in Europe was recently modeled for several scenarios of projected late 21st century climate. The results indicate mean range shifts of hundreds of kilometres north for many of European bird species. Here we consider the implications from such distributional shifts for the bird communities of Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures in southern Sweden, a forest type likely to remain prevalent due to forestry, despite climate change. Our assessment led us to three key findings. First, the monocultures offer suitable habitat to only two bird species projected to extend their breeding distribution northwards into southern Sweden this century. Second, species richness was projected to decline overall, which would accentuate the depauperate nature of these stands. Third, all conifer-associated arboreal granivores and three of four conifer-associated arboreal insectivores were projected not to occur, reducing both the functional richness and functional redundancy. We discuss caveats related to our approach, including the potential for bioclimatic projections – used in this study – to be hampered by the artificial retention of dominant vegetation. We also discuss the implications of our results for avian biodiversity in what is today the most prevalent forest type in southern Sweden and in many other regions of Europe