Work-rate of substitutes in elite soccer: A preliminary study

The aim of this study was to investigate the work-rate of substitutes in professional soccer. A computerised player tracking system was used to assess the work-rates of second-half substitutes (11 midfielders and 14 forwards) in a French Ligue 1 club. Total distance, distance covered in five categories of movement intensity and recovery time between high-intensity efforts were evaluated. First- and second-half work-rates of the replaced players were compared. The performance of substitutes was compared to that of the players they replaced, to team-mates in the same position who remained on the pitch after the substitution and in relation to their habitual performances when starting games. No differences in work-rate between first- and second-halves were observed in all players who were substituted. In the second-half, a non-significant trend was observed in midfield substitutes who covered greater distances than the player they replaced whereas no differences were observed in forwards. Midfield substitutes covered a greater overall distance and distance at high-intensities (p<0.01) and had a lower recovery time between high-intensity efforts (p<0.01) compared to other midfield team-mates who remained on the pitch. Forwards covered less distance (p<0.01) in their first 10-minutes as a substitute compared to their habitual work-rate profile in the opening 10-minutes when starting matches while this finding was not observed in midfielders. These findings suggest that compared to midfield substitutes, forward substitutes did not utilise their full physical potential. Further investigation is warranted into the reasons behind this finding in order to optimise the work-rate contributions of forward substitutes

Development and selection of operational management strategies to achieve policy objectives

Since the reform of the EU Common Fisheries Policy in 2002, effort has been devoted to addressing the governance, scientific, social and economic issues required to introduce an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) in Europe. Fisheries management needs to support the three pillars of sustainability (ecological, social and economic) and Fisheries Ecosystem Plans (FEPs) have been developed as a tool to assist managers considering the ecological, social and economic implications of their decision. Building upon previous studies (e.g. the FP5-funded European Fisheries Ecosystem Plan project), the core concept of the Making the European Fisheries Ecosystem Plan Operational (MEFEPO) project is to deliver operational frameworks (FEPs) for three regional seas. The project focus is on how best to make current institutional frameworks responsive to an EAFM at regional and pan-European levels in accordance with the principles of good governance. The regional seas selected for the project are the North Sea (NS), North Western Waters (NWW) and South Western Waters (SWW) RAC regions. The aim of this work package (WP5) was to develop operational objectives to achieve the ecological objectives identified for the 3 regional seas in WP2. This report describes the development and implementation of a transparent and formal process that should lead to identification of the “best” operational management strategies for an EAFM, based on sound scientific information and stakeholder involvement (e.g. regional industry groups, citizen groups, managers and other interest groups)

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001-2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares >X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares >X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis

This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the period 1900-2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found in two other observational datasets. The long term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with statistically significant negative trend (approximately -6hPa per century) in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious. The spurious long term changes in MSLP and the AO index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern Europe and the NH high latitudes

The impact of climate variability and climate change on the GB power system

Recent trends in global energy systems have seen a rapid uptake in renewable generation, however, few studies have investigated the impacts of inter-annual climate variability and climate change on power system operation. This thesis aims to explore these impacts for the GB power system. Multi-decadal re-analysis and climate model datasets are used to create demand and wind power time-series as inputs for a load duration curve based power system assessment. Using the MERRA reanalysis, it was found that all aspects of the GB power system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, but the impacts are most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of climate variability are amplified by increasing onshore wind power capacity, and decreased by increasing offshore wind power capacity. The GB power system model is most sensitive to winter weather. A system with no installed wind power capacity is driven by inter-annual variability in temperatures. As the amount of installed wind power capacity is increased, the power system becomes increasingly sensitive to variability in winds. It was found that more than 10 years of climate data are required to adequately sample the impacts of inter-annual variability of climate on the power system. In the HiGEM 4XCO2 climate scenario, mean winter demand reduces (-6%) while mean summer demand increases (+5%) primarily due to warmer temperatures. These changes result in a reduction in the use of conventional generation (-30%) and peak load (-6%). Furthermore, suggesting that climate change may somewhat counteract the increases in inter-annual power system variability which would otherwise be associated with increasing installed wind power capacity

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

The increasing use of intermittent renewable generation (such as wind) is increasing the exposure of national power systems to meteorological variability. This study identifies how the integration of wind power in one particular country (Great Britain, GB) is affecting the overall sensitivity of the power system to weather using three key metrics: total annual energy requirement and peak residual load (from sources other than wind) and wind power curtailment. The present-day level of wind power capacity (approximately 15GW) is shown to have already changed the power system's overall sensitivity to weather in terms of the total annual energy requirement, from a temperature- to a wind-dominated regime (which occurred with 6GW of installed wind power capacity). Peak residual load from sources other than wind also shows a similar shift. The associated changes in the synoptic- and large-scale meteorological drivers associated with each metric are identified and discussed. In a period where power systems are changing rapidly, it is therefore argued that past experience of the weather impacts on the GB power system may not be a good guide for the impact on the present or near-future power system

Polyelectrolyte Bundles

Using extensive Molecular Dynamics simulations we study the behavior of polyelectrolytes with hydrophobic side chains, which are known to form cylindrical micelles in aqueous solution. We investigate the stability of such bundles with respect to hydrophobicity, the strength of the electrostatic interaction, and the bundle size. We show that for the parameter range relevant for sulfonated poly-para-phenylenes (PPP) one finds a stable finite bundle size. In a more generic model we also show the influence of the length of the precursor oligomer on the stability of the bundles. We also point out that our model has close similarities to DNA solutions with added condensing agents, hinting to the possibility that the size of DNA aggregates is under certain circumstances thermodynamically limited.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488)

Renminbi Internationalisation: Precedents and Implications

While it is commonly assumed that there are no known precedents against which to benchmark the internationalisation of the Renminbi (RMB), this paper argues that the PRCs own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. In particular it indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s developed financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise receipts from foreign trade as well as minimise the risks of undue swings in capital flows. The paper shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions and as such Hong Kong’s role in mitigating the risk of undue capital swings remains

Cognitive fusion as a candidate psychological vulnerability factor for psychosis: An experimental study of acute ∆9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intoxication

Heavy cannabis use is associated with an increased risk of psychosis. However, the psychological mechanisms involved, and interactions with established risk factors for cannabis-related psychosis, remain unclear. This study examined the role of cognitive fusion, a candidate vulnerability factor for psychosis, during acute THC intoxication, and the interaction with key risk factors – developmental trauma and schizotypy. Twenty general population cannabis-using participants were administered THC or placebo in a within-participants, double-blinded randomised study. Developmental trauma, schizotypy and cognitive fusion were all associated with psychotic experiences during intoxication. Cognitive fusion accounted for increased psychotic experiences in those with developmental trauma and high schizotypy. Cognitive fusion may be a key mechanism by which developmental trauma and schizotypy increase risk of psychosis from cannabis use. This initial study is limited by a small sample and correlational design; a larger scale mediation study is now needed to support a causal argument. The findings have implications for psychological treatments and identifying those at risk of cannabis-related psychosis. Psychological interventions that target cognitive fusion may be more effective than generic approaches. People prone to cognitive fusion, particularly those with a history of developmental trauma and high in schizotypy, may be at higher risk for cannabis-related psychosis