Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database

Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.Published88-916A. Geochimica per l'ambienteJCR Journa

Particle acceleration in three-dimensional tearing configurations

In three-dimensional electromagnetic configurations that result from unstable resistive tearing modes particles can efficiently be accelerated to relativistic energies. To prove this resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations are used as input configurations for successive test particle simulations. The simulations show the capability of three-dimensional non-linearly evolved tearing modes to accelerate particles perpendicular to the plane of the reconnecting magnetic field components. The simulations differ considerably from analytical approaches by involving a realistic three-dimensional electric field with a non-homogenous component parallel to the current direction. The resulting particle spectra exhibit strong pitch-angle anisotropies. Typically, about 5-8 % of an initially Maxwellian distribution is accelerated to the maximum energy levels given by the macroscopic generalized electric potential structure. Results are shown for both, non-relativistic particle acceleration that is of interest, e.g., in the context of auroral arcs and solar flares, and relativistic particle energization that is relevant, e.g., in the context of active galactic nuclei.Comment: Physics of Plasmas, in prin

Particle interactions with single or multiple 3D solar reconnecting current sheets

The acceleration of charged particles (electrons and protons) in flaring solar active regions is analyzed by numerical experiments. The acceleration is modelled as a stochastic process taking place by the interaction of the particles with local magnetic reconnection sites via multiple steps. Two types of local reconnecting topologies are studied: the Harris-type and the X-point. A formula for the maximum kinetic energy gain in a Harris-type current sheet, found in a previous work of ours, fits well the numerical data for a single step of the process. A generalization is then given approximating the kinetic energy gain through an X-point. In the case of the multiple step process, in both topologies the particles' kinetic energy distribution is found to acquire a practically invariant form after a small number of steps. This tendency is interpreted theoretically. Other characteristics of the acceleration process are given, such as the mean acceleration time and the pitch angle distributions of the particles.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, Solar Physics, in pres

Increased impedance near cut-off in plasma-like media leading to emission of high-power, narrow-bandwidth radiation

Ultra-intense, narrow-bandwidth, electromagnetic pulses have become important tools for exploring the characteristics of matter. Modern tuneable high-power light sources, such as free-electron lasers and vacuum tubes, rely on bunching of relativistic or near-relativistic electrons in vacuum. Here we present a fundamentally different method for producing narrow-bandwidth radiation from a broad spectral bandwidth current source, which takes advantage of the inflated radiation impedance close to cut-off in a medium with a plasma-like permittivity. We find that by embedding a current source in this cut-off region, more than an order of magnitude enhancement of the radiation intensity is obtained compared with emission directly into free space. The method suggests a simple and general way to flexibly use broadband current sources to produce broad or narrow bandwidth pulses. As an example, we demonstrate, using particle-in-cell simulations, enhanced monochromatic emission of terahertz radiation using a two-colour pumped current source enclosed by a tapered waveguide.ope

Designing the climate observing system of the future

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 6 (2018): 80–102, doi:10.1002/2017EF000627.Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs

Generation and acceleration of electron bunches from a plasma photocathode

Plasma waves generated in the wake of intense, relativistic laser1,2 or particle beams3,4 can accelerate electron bunches to gigaelectronvolt energies in centimetre-scale distances. This allows the realization of compact accelerators with emerging applications ranging from modern light sources such as the free-electron laser to energy frontier lepton colliders. In a plasma wakefield accelerator, such multi-gigavolt-per-metre wakefields can accelerate witness electron bunches that are either externally injected5,6 or captured from the background plasma7,8. Here we demonstrate optically triggered injection9–11 and acceleration of electron bunches, generated in a multi-component hydrogen and helium plasma employing a spatially aligned and synchronized laser pulse. This ‘plasma photocathode’ decouples injection from wake excitation by liberating tunnel-ionized helium electrons directly inside the plasma cavity, where these cold electrons are then rapidly boosted to relativistic velocities. The injection regime can be accessed via optical11 density down-ramp injection12–16 and is an important step towards the generation of electron beams with unprecedented low transverse emittance, high current and 6D-brightness17. This experimental path opens numerous prospects for transformative plasma wakefield accelerator applications based on ultrahigh-brightness beams

Development of high gradient laser wakefield accelerators towards nuclear detection applications at LBNL

Compact high-energy linacs are important to applications including monochromatic gamma sources for nuclear material security applications. Recent laser wakefield accelerator experiments at LBNL demonstrated narrow energy spread beams, now with energies of up to 1 GeV in 3 cm using a plasma channel at low density. This demonstrates the production of GeV beams from devices much smaller than conventional linacs, and confirms the anticipated scaling of laser driven accelerators to GeV energies. Stable performance at 0.5 GeV was demonstrated. Experiments and simulations are in progress to control injection of particles into the wake and hence to improve beam quality and stability. Using plasma density gradients to control injection, stable beams at 1 MeV over days of operation, and with an order of magnitude lower absolute momentum spread than previously observed, have been demonstrated. New experiments are post-accelerating the beams from controlled injection experiments to increase beam quality and stability. Thomson scattering from such beams is being developed to provide collimated multi-MeV monoenergetic gamma sources for security applications from compact devices. Such sources can reduce dose to target and increase accuracy for applications including photofission and nuclear resonance fluorescence

The global methane budget 2000-2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008-2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr-1 (range 550-594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr-1 or ĝ1/4 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336-376 Tg CH4 yr-1 or 50 %-65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008-2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr-1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000-2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr-1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003-2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 594-881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (ĝ1/4 65 % of the global budget, < 30ĝ  N) compared to mid-latitudes (ĝ1/4 30 %, 30-60ĝ  N) and high northern latitudes (ĝ1/4 4 %, 60-90ĝ  N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr-1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr-1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-CH4-2019 (Saunois et al., 2020) and from the Global Carbon Project

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved