Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. Exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytic approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g. the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E. 15 pages, 7 figure

Universal nonlinear infection kernel from heterogeneous exposure on higher-order networks

The colocation of individuals in different environments is an important prerequisite for exposure to infectious diseases on a social network. Standard epidemic models fail to capture the potential complexity of this scenario by (1) neglecting the higher-order structure of contacts which typically occur through environments like workplaces, restaurants, and households; and by (2) assuming a linear relationship between the exposure to infected contacts and the risk of infection. Here, we leverage a hypergraph model to embrace the heterogeneity of environments and the heterogeneity of individual participation in these environments. We find that combining heterogeneous exposure with the concept of minimal infective dose induces a universal nonlinear relationship between infected contacts and infection risk. Under nonlinear infection kernels, conventional epidemic wisdom breaks down with the emergence of discontinuous transitions, super-exponential spread, and hysteresis

A shadowing problem in the detection of overlapping communities: lifting the resolution limit through a cascading procedure

Community detection is the process of assigning nodes and links in significant communities (e.g. clusters, function modules) and its development has led to a better understanding of complex networks. When applied to sizable networks, we argue that most detection algorithms correctly identify prominent communities, but fail to do so across multiple scales. As a result, a significant fraction of the network is left uncharted. We show that this problem stems from larger or denser communities overshadowing smaller or sparser ones, and that this effect accounts for most of the undetected communities and unassigned links. We propose a generic cascading approach to community detection that circumvents the problem. Using real and artificial network datasets with three widely used community detection algorithms, we show how a simple cascading procedure allows for the detection of the missing communities. This work highlights a new detection limit of community structure, and we hope that our approach can inspire better community detection algorithms.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures + supporting information (5 pages, 6 tables, 3 figures

Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

Bond percolation on a class of correlated and clustered random graphs

We introduce a formalism for computing bond percolation properties of a class of correlated and clustered random graphs. This class of graphs is a generalization of the Configuration Model where nodes of different types are connected via different types of hyperedges, edges that can link more than 2 nodes. We argue that the multitype approach coupled with the use of clustered hyperedges can reproduce a wide spectrum of complex patterns, and thus enhances our capability to model real complex networks. As an illustration of this claim, we use our formalism to highlight unusual behaviors of the size and composition of the components (small and giant) in a synthetic, albeit realistic, social network.Comment: 16 pages and 4 figure

Spreading to localized targets in complex networks.

As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.We thank an anonymous reviewer for helpful suggestions which improve this paper. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos 61603046 and 11547188), Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No. 16L00077) and the Young Scholar Program of Beijing Normal University (No. 2014NT38)

The risk of sustained sexual transmission of Zika is underestimated

Pathogens often follow more than one transmission route during outbreaks—from needle sharing plus sexual transmission of HIV to small droplet aerosol plus fomite transmission of influenza. Thus, controlling an infectious disease outbreak often requires characterizing the risk associated with multiple mechanisms of transmission. For example, during the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, weighing the relative importance of funeral versus health care worker transmission was essential to stopping disease spread. As a result, strategic policy decisions regarding interventions must rely on accurately characterizing risks associated with multiple transmission routes. The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak challenges our conventional methodologies for translating case-counts into route-specific transmission risk. Critically, most approaches will fail to accurately estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission of a pathogen that is primarily vectored by a mosquito—such as the risk of sustained sexual transmission of ZIKV. By computationally investigating a novel mathematical approach for multi-route pathogens, our results suggest that previous epidemic threshold estimates could under-estimate the risk of sustained sexual transmission by at least an order of magnitude. This result, coupled with emerging clinical, epidemiological, and experimental evidence for an increased risk of sexual transmission, would strongly support recent calls to classify ZIKV as a sexually transmitted infection. © 2017 Allard et al