EASY-APP : An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed.The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/).The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model

Hypoalbuminemia affects one third of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with severity and mortality

The incidence and medical costs of acute pancreatitis (AP) are on the rise, and severe cases still have a 30% mortality rate. We aimed to evaluate hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor and the prognostic value of human serum albumin in AP. Data from 2461 patients were extracted from the international, prospective, multicentre AP registry operated by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data from patients with albumin measurement in the first 48 h (n = 1149) and anytime during hospitalization (n = 1272) were analysed. Multivariate binary logistic regression and Receiver Operator Characteristic curve analysis were used. The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (< 35 g/L) was 19% on admission and 35.7% during hospitalization. Hypoalbuminemia dose-dependently increased the risk of severity, mortality, local complications and organ failure and is associated with longer hospital stay. The predictive value of hypoalbuminemia on admission was poor for severity and mortality. Severe hypoalbuminemia (< 25 g/L) represented an independent risk factor for severity (OR 48.761; CI 25.276-98.908) and mortality (OR 16.83; CI 8.32-35.13). Albumin loss during AP was strongly associated with severity (p < 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.002). Hypoalbuminemia represents an independent risk factor for severity and mortality in AP, and it shows a dose-dependent relationship with local complications, organ failure and length of stay.Peer reviewe

Development of disturbance of consciousness is associated with increased severity in acute pancreatitis

Background Disturbance of consciousness (DOC) may develop in acute pancreatitis (AP). In clinical practice, it is known that DOC may worsen the patient's condition, but we have no exact data on how DOC affects the outcome of AP. Methods From the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Groups' AP registry, 1220 prospectively collected cases were analysed, which contained exact data on DOC, included patients with confusion, delirium, convulsion, and alcohol withdrawal, answering a post hoc defined research question. Patients were separated to Non-DOC and DOC, whereas DOC was further divided into non-alcohol related DOC (Non-ALC DOC) and ALC DOC groups. For statistical analysis, independent sample t-test, Mann-Whitney, Chi-squared, or Fisher exact test were used. Results From the 1220 patients, 47 (3.9%) developed DOC, 23 (48.9%) cases were ALC DOC vs. 24 (51.1%) Non-ALC DOC. Analysis between the DOC and Non-DOC groups showed a higher incidence of severe AP (19.2% vs. 5.3%, p<0.001), higher mortality (14.9% vs. 1.7%, p<0.001), and a longer length of hospitalization (LOH) (Me=11; IQR: 8-17 days vs. Me=9; IQR: 6-13 days, p=0.049) respectively. Patients with ALC DOC developed more frequently moderate AP vs. Non-ALC DOC (43.5% vs. 12.5%), while the incidence of severe AP was higher in Non-ALC vs. ALC DOC group (33.3% vs. 4.4%) (p<0.001). LOH showed a tendency to be longer in Non-ALC DOC compared to ALC DOC, respectively (Me:13; IQR:7-20 days vs. Me:9.5; IQR:8-15.5 days, p=0.119). Conclusion DOC during AP is associated with a higher rate of moderate and severe AP and increases the risk of mortality

High versus low energy administration in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (GOULASH trial): protocol of a multicentre randomised double-blind clinical trial

Introduction Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease with no specific treatment. Mitochondrial injury followed by ATP depletion in both acinar and ductal cells is a recently discovered early event in its pathogenesis. Importantly, preclinical research has shown that intracellular ATP delivery restores the physiological function of the cells and protects from cell injury, suggesting that restoration of energy levels in the pancreas is therapeutically beneficial. Despite several high quality experimental observations in this area, no randomised trials have been conducted to date to address the requirements for energy intake in the early phase of AP. Methods/design This is a randomised controlled two-arm double-blind multicentre trial. Patients with AP will be randomly assigned to groups A (30 kcal/kg/day energy administration starting within 24 hours of hospital admission) or B (low energy administration during the first 72 hours of hospital admission). Energy will be delivered by nasoenteric tube feeding with additional intravenous glucose supplementation or total parenteral nutrition if necessary. A combination of multiorgan failure for more than 48 hours and mortality is defined as the primary endpoint, whereas several secondary endpoints such as length of hospitalisation or pain will be determined to elucidate more detailed differences between the groups. The general feasibility, safety and quality checks required for high quality evidence will be adhered to. Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the relevant organisation, the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (55961-2/2016/EKU). This study will provide evidence as to whether early high energy nutritional support is beneficial in the clinical management of AP. The results of this trial will be published in an open access way and disseminated among medical doctors

Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral ferrous sulfate replacement in elderly patients after acute non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding (FIERCE): protocol of a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial

Introduction Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a life-threatening emergency with a critical economic burden. As a result of bleeding, anaemia often requires intravenous or oral iron supplementation. Elderly patients are even more prone to untoward outcomes after hospital discharge if iron supplementation is inefficient. There is a gap in current guidelines on which supplementation route clinicians should choose. We aim to investigate the effect of one dose of intravenous iron therapy versus 3-month oral iron administration on anaemia in an elderly population.Methods and analysis The FIERCE study is an open-label, randomised controlled, two-armed trial. At least 48 hours after the acute non-variceal GIB treatment, patients will be recruited in participating centres. A random sequence generator will allocate the participants to group A (intravenous ferric carboxymaltose, 1000 mg) or group B (oral ferrous sulfate (FS), ca. 200 mg every day) with an allocation ratio of 1:1 on the day of the planned discharge from the hospital. Randomisation will be stratified for participating centres and the need for transfusion within the same hospitalisation before recruitment to the trial. Quality of life assessment, functional measurement and laboratory tests will be performed at baseline, 1 and 3 months±7 days after enrolment to the trial. The primary endpoint is a composite endpoint, including all-cause mortality, anaemia-associated unplanned emergency visit and anaemia-associated unplanned hospital admission within 3 months of enrolment in the trial.Ethics and dissemination The study has been approved by the relevant organisation, the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Hungarian Medical Research Council (46395-5/2021/EÜIG). We will disseminate our results to the medical community and will publish our results in peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration The trial has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05060731)