An open multi-physics framework for modelling wildland-urban interface fire evacuations

Fire evacuations at wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to the emergency services, and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. This paper presents a multi-physics framework for the simulation of evacuation in WUI wildfire incidents, including three main modelling layers: wildfire, pedestrians, and traffic. Currently, these layers have been mostly modelled in isolation and there is no comprehensive model which accounts for their integration. The key features needed for system integration are identified, namely: consistent level of refinement of each layer (i.e. spatial and temporal scales) and their application (e.g. evacuation planning or emergency response), and complete data exchange. Timelines of WUI fire events are analysed using an approach similar to building fire engineering (available vs. required safe egress times for WUI fires, i.e. WASET/WRSET). The proposed framework allows for a paradigm shift from current wildfire risk assessment and mapping tools towards dynamic fire vulnerability mapping. This is the assessment of spatial and temporal vulnerabilities based on the wildfire threat evolution along with variables related to the infrastructure, population and network characteristics. This framework allows for the integration of the three main modelling layers affecting WUI fire evacuation and aims at improving the safety of WUI communities by minimising the consequences of wildfire evacuations

“No One Manages It; We Just Sign Them Up and Do It”: A Whole System Analysis of Access to Healthcare in One Remote Australian Community

Objective: To assess the accessibility, availability and utilisation of a comprehensive range of community-based healthcare services for Aboriginal people and describe contributing factors to providing effective healthcare services from the provider perspective. Setting: A remote community in New South Wales, Australia. Participants: Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal health and education professionals performing various roles in healthcare provision in the community. Design: Case study. Methodology: The study was co-designed with the community. A mixed-methods methodology was utilised. Data were gathered through structured interviews. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the availability of 40 health services in the community, whilst quotations from the qualitative research were used to provide context for the quantitative findings. Results: Service availability was mapped for 40 primary, specialised, and allied health services. Three key themes emerged from the analysis: (1) there are instances of both underservicing and overservicing which give insight into systemic barriers to interagency cooperation; (2) nurses, community health workers, Aboriginal health workers, teachers, and administration staff have an invaluable role in healthcare and improving patient access to health services and could be better supported through further funding and opportunities for specialised training; and (3) visiting and telehealth services are critical components of the system that must be linked to existing community-led primary care services. Conclusion: The study identified factors influencing service availability, accessibility and interagency cooperation in remote healthcare services and systems that can be used to guide future service and system planning and resourcing

Prognostic value of gross tumor volume delineated by FDG-PET-CT based radiotherapy treatment planning in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We aimed to assess whether gross tumor volume (GTV) determined by fusion of contrast-enhanced computerized tomography (CT) and 18F-fluoro-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography-CT (FDG-PET-CT) based radiotherapy planning could predict outcomes, namely overall survival (OS), local-regional progression-free survival (LRPFS), and progression-free survival (PFS) in cases with locally advanced pancreas cancer (LAPC) treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 30 patients with histological proof of LAPC underwent 50.4 Gy (1.8 Gy/28 fractions) of radiotherapy concurrent with continuously infused 5-FU followed by 4 to 6 courses of maintenance gemcitabine. Target volume delineations were performed on FDG-PET-CT-based RTP. Patients were stratified into 2 groups: GTV lesser (GTV_L) versus greater (GTV_G) than cut off value determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and compared in terms of OS, LRPFS and PFS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Median GTV delineated according to the FDG-PET-CT data was 100.0 cm³. Cut off GTV value determined from ROC curves was 91.1 cm³. At a median follow up of 11.2 months, median OS, LRPFS and PFS for the entire population were 10.3, 7.8 and 5.7 months, respectively. Median OS, LRPFS and PFS for GTV_Land GTV_Gcohorts were 16.3 vs. 9.5 (<it>p </it>= 0.005), 11.0 vs. 6.0 (<it>p </it>= 0.013), and 9.0 vs. 4.8 months (<it>p </it>= 0.008), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The superior OS, LRPFS and PFS observed in GTV_Lpatients over GTV_Gones suggests a potential for FDG-PET-CT-defined GTV size in predicting outcomes of LAPC patients treated with definitive C-CRT, which needs to be validated by further studies with larger cohorts.</p

Identification of the CRE-1 Cellulolytic Regulon in Neurospora crassa

Background: In filamentous ascomycete fungi, the utilization of alternate carbon sources is influenced by the zinc finger transcription factor CreA/CRE-1, which encodes a carbon catabolite repressor protein homologous to Mig1 from Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In Neurospora crassa, deletion of cre-1 results in increased secretion of amylase and b-galactosidase. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we show that a strain carrying a deletion of cre-1 has increased cellulolytic activity and increased expression of cellulolytic genes during growth on crystalline cellulose (Avicel). Constitutive expression of cre-1 complements the phenotype of a N. crassa Dcre-1 strain grown on Avicel, and also results in stronger repression of cellulolytic protein secretion and enzyme activity. We determined the CRE-1 regulon by investigating the secretome and transcriptome of a Dcre-1 strain as compared to wild type when grown on Avicel versus minimal medium. Chromatin immunoprecipitation-PCR of putative target genes showed that CRE-1 binds to only some adjacent 59-SYGGRG-39 motifs, consistent with previous findings in other fungi, and suggests that unidentified additional regulatory factors affect CRE-1 binding to promoter regions. Characterization of 30 mutants containing deletions in genes whose expression level increased in a Dcre-1 strain under cellulolytic conditions identified novel genes that affect cellulase activity and protein secretion

Do serum biomarkers really measure breast cancer?

Background Because screening mammography for breast cancer is less effective for premenopausal women, we investigated the feasibility of a diagnostic blood test using serum proteins. Methods This study used a set of 98 serum proteins and chose diagnostically relevant subsets via various feature-selection techniques. Because of significant noise in the data set, we applied iterated Bayesian model averaging to account for model selection uncertainty and to improve generalization performance. We assessed generalization performance using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results The classifiers were able to distinguish normal tissue from breast cancer with a classification performance of AUC = 0.82 ± 0.04 with the proteins MIF, MMP-9, and MPO. The classifiers distinguished normal tissue from benign lesions similarly at AUC = 0.80 ± 0.05. However, the serum proteins of benign and malignant lesions were indistinguishable (AUC = 0.55 ± 0.06). The classification tasks of normal vs. cancer and normal vs. benign selected the same top feature: MIF, which suggests that the biomarkers indicated inflammatory response rather than cancer. Conclusion Overall, the selected serum proteins showed moderate ability for detecting lesions. However, they are probably more indicative of secondary effects such as inflammation rather than specific for malignancy.United States. Dept. of Defense. Breast Cancer Research Program (Grant No. W81XWH-05-1-0292)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (R01 CA-112437-01)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH CA 84955

NEOSCOPE: A randomised Phase II study of induction chemotherapy followed by either oxaliplatin/capecitabine or paclitaxel/carboplatin based chemoradiation as pre-operative regimen for resectable oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Background: Both oxaliplatin/capecitabine-based chemoradiation (OXCAP-RT) and carboplatin-paclitaxel based radiation (CarPac-RT) are active regimens in oesophageal adenocarcinoma, but no randomised study has compared their efficacy and toxicity. This randomised phase II "pick a winner" trial will identify the optimum regimen to take forward to a future phase III trial against neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, the current standard in the UK. Methods/Design: Patients with resectable adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus or Siewert Type 1-2 gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ), ≥T3 and/or ≥ N1 are eligible for the study. Following two cycles of induction OXCAP chemotherapy (oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 D1, Cape 625 mg/m2 D1-21, q 3 wk), patients are randomised 1:1 to OXCAP-RT (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 Day 1,15,29; capecitabine 625 mg/m2 twice daily on days of RT; RT-45 Gy/25 fractions/5 weeks) or CarPac-RT (Carboplatin AUC2 and paclitaxel 50 mg/m2 Day 1,8,15,22,29; RT-45 Gy/25 fractions/5 weeks). Restaging CT/PET-CT is performed 4-6 weeks after CRT, and a two-phase oesophagectomy with two-field lymphadenectomy is performed six to eight weeks after CRT. The primary end-point is pathological complete response rate (pCR) at resection and will include central review. Secondary endpoints include: recruitment rate, toxicity, 30-day surgical morbidity/mortality, resection margin positivity rate and overall survival (median, 3- and 5-yr OS. 76 patients (38/arm) gives 90% power and one-sided type 1 error of 10% if patients on one novel treatment have a response rate of 35% while the second treatment has a response rate of 15%. A detailed RT Quality Assurance (RTQA) programme includes a detailed RT protocol and guidance document, pre-accrual RT workshop, outlining exercise, and central evaluation of contouring and planning. This trial has been funded by Cancer Research UK (C44694/A14614), sponsored by Velindre NHS Trust and conducted through the Wales Cancer Trials Unit at Cardiff University on behalf of the NCRI Upper GI CSG. Discussion: Following encouraging results from previous trials, there is an interest in neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and CRT containing regimens for treatment of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. NEOSCOPE will first establish the efficacy, safety and feasibility of two different neo-adjuvant CRT regimens prior to a potential phase III trial

Trading or coercion? Variation in male mating strategies between two communities of East African chimpanzees

Across taxa, males employ a variety of mating strategies, including sexual coercion and the provision, or trading, of resources. Biological Market theory (BMT) predicts that trading of commodities for mating opportunities should exist only when males cannot monopolise access to females and/or obtain mating by force, in situations where power differentials between males are low; both coercion and trading have been reported for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Here, we investigate whether the choice of strategy depends on the variation in male power differentials, using data from two wild communities of East African chimpanzees (P.t. schweinfurthii): the structurally despotic Sonso community (Budongo, Uganda) and the structurally egalitarian M-group (Mahale, Tanzania). We found evidence of sexual coercion by male Sonso chimpanzees, and of trading—of grooming for mating—by M-group males; females traded sex for neither meat nor protection from male aggression. Our results suggest that the despotism–egalitarian axis influences strategy choice: male chimpanzees appear to pursue sexual coercion when power differentials are large and trading when power differentials are small and coercion consequently ineffective. Our findings demonstrate that trading and coercive strategies are not restricted to particular chimpanzee subspecies; instead, their occurrence is consistent with BMT predictions. Our study raises interesting, and as yet unanswered, questions regarding female chimpanzees’ willingness to trade sex for grooming, if doing so represents a compromise to their fundamentally promiscuous mating strategy. It highlights the importance of within-species cross-group comparisons and the need for further study of the relationship between mating strategy and dominance steepness

Effect of a 2-week interruption in methotrexate treatment on COVID-19 vaccine response in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (VROOM study): a randomised, open label, superiority trial

Background: Methotrexate is the first-line treatment for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and reduces vaccine-induced immunity. We evaluated if a 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination improved antibody response against the S1 receptor binding domain (S1-RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and live SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation compared with uninterrupted treatment in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. Method: We did a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised, superiority trial in secondary-care rheumatology and dermatology clinics in 26 hospitals in the UK. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases taking methotrexate (≤25 mg per week) for at least 3 months, who had received two primary vaccine doses from the UK COVID-19 vaccination programme were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) using a centralised validated computer program, to temporarily suspend methotrexate treatment for 2 weeks immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination or continue treatment as usual. The primary outcome was S1-RBD antibody titres 4 weeks after COVID-19 booster vaccination and was assessed masked to group assignment. All randomly assigned patients were included in primary and safety analyses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN11442263; following a pre-planned interim analysis, recruitment was stopped early. Finding: Between Sept 30, 2021, and March 7, 2022, we screened 685 individuals, of whom 383 were randomly assigned: to either suspend methotrexate (n=191; mean age 58·8 years [SD 12·5], 118 [62%] women and 73 [38%] men) or to continue methotrexate (n=192; mean age 59·3 years [11·9], 117 [61%] women and 75 [39%] men). At 4 weeks, the geometric mean S1-RBD antibody titre was 25 413 U/mL (95% CI 22 227–29 056) in the suspend methotrexate group and 12 326 U/mL (10 538–14 418) in the continue methotrexate group with a geometric mean ratio (GMR) of 2·08 (95% CI 1·59–2·70; p<0·0001). No intervention-related serious adverse events occurred. Interpretation: 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases enhanced antibody responses after COVID-19 booster vaccination that were sustained at 12 weeks and 26 weeks. There was a temporary increase in inflammatory disease flares, mostly self-managed. The choice to suspend methotrexate should be individualised based on disease status and vulnerability to severe outcomes from COVID-19. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research