Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities

This paper examines the distribution of Belgian consumer prices and its interaction with aggregate inflation over the period June 1976-September 2000. Given the fat-tailed nature of this distribution, both classical and robust measures of location, scale and skewness are presented. We found a positive short-run impact of the skewness of relative prices on aggregate inflation, irrespective of the average inflation rate. The dispersion of relative prices has also a positive impact on aggregate inflation in the short run and this impact is significantly lower in the sub-sample starting in 1988 than in the pre-1988 sub-sample, suggesting that the prevailing monetary policy regime has a substantial effect on this coefficient. The chronic right skewness of the distribution, revealed by the robust measures, is positively cointegrated with aggregate inflation, suggesting that it is largely dependent on the inflationary process itself and would disappear at zero inflation. These results have three important implications for monetary policy. First, as to the transmission of monetary policy, our results are in line with the predictions of menu cost models and therefore suggest that this type of friction can be an important factor behind the short run non-neutrality of monetary policy. Second, as to the design of robust estimators of core inflation, economic arguments based on menu cost models tend to highlight the importance of the absence of bias. We have proposed an unbiased estimator by taking the time-varying degree of chronic right skewness explicitly into account. Third, as to the optimal rate of inflation, the chronic right skewness found in the data provides no argument against price stability, as it appears as an endogenous response of optimising price setters and would disappear when targeting a zero inflation rate. This conclusion contrasts sharply with the implications of the exogenously assumed downward rigidity of Tobin (1972), which would justify targeting a sufficiently positive inflation rate in order to facilitate the adjustment of relative prices. Our empirical findings contradict the latter type of downward rigidity which implies a negative correlation between skewness and inflation. Therefore, the cross-sectional properties of Belgian inflation data do not provide strong arguments against a price stability-oriented monetary policy, such as the one pursued by the Eurosystem.

Diagnostic and prognostic correlates of preoperative FDG PET for breast cancer

Purpose: To explore the preoperative utility of FDG PET for the diagnosis and prognosis in a retrospective breast cancer case series. Methods: In this retrospective study, 104 patients who had undergone a preoperative FDG PET scan for primary breast cancer at the UZ Brussel during the period 2002-2008 were identified. Selection criteria were: histological confirmation, FDG PET performed prior to therapy, and breast surgery integrated into the primary therapy plan. Patterns of increased metabolism were recorded according to the involved locations: breast, ipsilateral axillary region, internal mammary chain, or distant organs. The end-point for the survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards was disease-free survival. The contribution of prognostic factors was evaluated using the Akaike information criterion and the Nagelkerke index. Results: PET positivity was associated with age, gender, tumour location, tumour size >2 cm, lymphovascular invasion, oestrogen and progesterone receptor status. Among 63 patients with a negative axillary PET status, 56 (88.9%) had three or fewer involved nodes, whereas among 41 patients with a positive axillary PET status, 25 (61.0%) had more than three positive nodes (P < 0.0001). In the survival analysis of preoperative characteristics, PET axillary node positivity was the foremost statistically significant factor associated with decreased disease-free survival (hazard ratio 2.81, 95% CI 1.17-6.74). Conclusion: Preoperative PET axillary node positivity identified patients with a higher burden of nodal involvement, which might be important for treatment decisions in breast cancer patient

Kepler-93b: A Terrestrial World Measured to within 120 km, and a Test Case for a New Spitzer Observing Mode

We present the characterization of the Kepler-93 exoplanetary system, based on three years of photometry gathered by the Kepler spacecraft. The duration and cadence of the Kepler observations, in tandem with the brightness of the star, enable unusually precise constraints on both the planet and its host. We conduct an asteroseismic analysis of the Kepler photometry and conclude that the star has an average density of 1.652+/-0.006 g/cm^3. Its mass of 0.911+/-0.033 M_Sun renders it one of the lowest-mass subjects of asteroseismic study. An analysis of the transit signature produced by the planet Kepler-93b, which appears with a period of 4.72673978+/-9.7x10^-7 days, returns a consistent but less precise measurement of the stellar density, 1.72+0.02-0.28 g/cm^3. The agreement of these two values lends credence to the planetary interpretation of the transit signal. The achromatic transit depth, as compared between Kepler and the Spitzer Space Telescope, supports the same conclusion. We observed seven transits of Kepler-93b with Spitzer, three of which we conducted in a new observing mode. The pointing strategy we employed to gather this subset of observations halved our uncertainty on the transit radius ratio R_p/R_star. We find, after folding together the stellar radius measurement of 0.919+/-0.011 R_Sun with the transit depth, a best-fit value for the planetary radius of 1.481+/-0.019 R_Earth. The uncertainty of 120 km on our measurement of the planet's size currently renders it one of the most precisely measured planetary radii outside of the Solar System. Together with the radius, the planetary mass of 3.8+/-1.5 M_Earth corresponds to a rocky density of 6.3+/-2.6 g/cm^3. After applying a prior on the plausible maximum densities of similarly-sized worlds between 1--1.5 R_Earth, we find that Kepler-93b possesses an average density within this group.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Kepler-432: a red giant interacting with one of its two long period giant planets

We report the discovery of Kepler-432b, a giant planet ($M_b = 5.41^{+0.32}_{-0.18} M_{\rm Jup}, R_b = 1.145^{+0.036}_{-0.039} R_{\rm Jup}$) transiting an evolved star $(M_\star = 1.32^{+0.10}_{-0.07} M_\odot, R_\star = 4.06^{+0.12}_{-0.08} R_\odot)$ with an orbital period of $P_b = 52.501129^{+0.000067}_{-0.000053}$ days. Radial velocities (RVs) reveal that Kepler-432b orbits its parent star with an eccentricity of $e = 0.5134^{+0.0098}_{-0.0089}$, which we also measure independently with asterodensity profiling (AP; $e=0.507^{+0.039}_{-0.114}$), thereby confirming the validity of AP on this particular evolved star. The well-determined planetary properties and unusually large mass also make this planet an important benchmark for theoretical models of super-Jupiter formation. Long-term RV monitoring detected the presence of a non-transiting outer planet (Kepler-432c; $M_c \sin{i_c} = 2.43^{+0.22}_{-0.24} M_{\rm Jup}, P_c = 406.2^{+3.9}_{-2.5}$ days), and adaptive optics imaging revealed a nearby (0\farcs87), faint companion (Kepler-432B) that is a physically bound M dwarf. The host star exhibits high signal-to-noise asteroseismic oscillations, which enable precise measurements of the stellar mass, radius and age. Analysis of the rotational splitting of the oscillation modes additionally reveals the stellar spin axis to be nearly edge-on, which suggests that the stellar spin is likely well-aligned with the orbit of the transiting planet. Despite its long period, the obliquity of the 52.5-day orbit may have been shaped by star-planet interaction in a manner similar to hot Jupiter systems, and we present observational and theoretical evidence to support this scenario. Finally, as a short-period outlier among giant planets orbiting giant stars, study of Kepler-432b may help explain the distribution of massive planets orbiting giant stars interior to 1 AU.Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures, 5 tables. Accepted to ApJ on Jan 24, 2015 (submitted Nov 11, 2014). Updated with minor changes to match published versio

Market-Driven Innovation

A new method for starting the iterative innovation process from the market side based on a sociological trend has been developed. It eliminates the traditional difference between the innovators and the sociological group that carries this trend, which can only be achieved by combining real-world innovation with innovation education. The method for market need discovery is presented as a step-by-step process with detailed reasoning, followed by a real-world example that details the outcomes at every step along the way. The example concludes with a detailed description of the outcome after the first innovation iteration cycle. The richness of the resulting concept demonstrates that an innovation process can be successfully started from the market side via the proposed method

Modeling the effect of age in T1-2 breast cancer using the SEER database

BACKGROUND: Modeling the relationship between age and mortality for breast cancer patients may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. METHODS: Data from 9 registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) of the United States were used. This study employed proportional hazards to model mortality in women with T1-2 breast cancers. The residuals of the model were used to examine the effect of age on mortality. This procedure was applied to node-negative (N0) and node-positive (N+) patients. All causes mortality and breast cancer specific mortality were evaluated. RESULTS: The relationship between age and mortality is biphasic. For both N0 and N+ patients among the T1-2 group, the analysis suggested two age components. One component is linear and corresponds to a natural increase of mortality with each year of age. The other component is quasi-quadratic and is centered around age 50. This component contributes to an increased risk of mortality as age increases beyond 50. It suggests a hormonally related process: the farther from menopause in either direction, the more prognosis is adversely influenced by the quasi-quadratic component. There is a complex relationship between hormone receptor status and other prognostic factors, like age. CONCLUSION: The present analysis confirms the findings of many epidemiological and clinical trials that the relationship between age and mortality is biphasic. Compared with older patients, young women experience an abnormally high risk of death. Among elderly patients, the risk of death from breast cancer does not decrease with increasing age. These facts are important in the discussion of options for adjuvant treatment with breast cancer patients

Temporal bone verrucous carcinoma: outcomes and treatment controversy

Verrucous carcinoma is a rare tumor that presents in the head and neck with the most common sites being the oral cavity and larynx. Fourteen cases of verrucous carcinoma of the temporal bone have been described in literature; this study aims to examine treatment outcomes and discuss the controversy surrounding postoperative radiation. The study design included a literature review along with individual case report in the setting of a tertiary care medical center. Outcome analysis of all cases of verrucous carcinoma of the temporal bone, which are documented in the English literature, and presentation of a single patient report including gross, histologic and radiologic analyses were performed. The longest recorded survival for verrucous carcinoma of the temporal bone occurs in patients treated with surgery alone. Poorer outcomes for patients treated with adjuvant (chemo)radiation may be due to more advanced stage of disease at the time of treatment. Early reports of radiation leading to tumor dedifferentiation or early recurrence are not supported by more recent studies. Whether adjuvant radiation therapy is indicated in verrucous carcinoma of the temporal bone remains controversial