Assessing the invasive potential of the Mediterranean fruit fly in California and Italy

The polyphagous tropical Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata Weid. (medfly)) was detected in California in 1975, and a large-scale detection/eradication campaign was begun in the absence of sound knowledge of the fly's potential invasiveness and geographic distribution. Persistent measurable populations of the fly have not been found in California, but a scientific explanation for this has not developed. A physiologically based demographic system model (CASAS) was developed to examine the effects of temperature on medfly's potential distribution across the ecological zones of Arizona–California (AZ–CA), and in Italy where the fly is established. The system model simulates the daily age-mass structured dynamics of a tree host composed of sub-unit populations of leaves, stem, roots and fruit, as well as the age-structured dynamics of medfly life stages. Total pupae tree−1 year−1 was used as the metric of favorability for medfly at 151 locations in AZ–CA during 1995–2006, and at 84 locations in Italy during 1999–2005. The results were mapped using GRASS GIS. AZ and the southern desert areas of CA are unfavorable for medfly because of high summer temperatures, while much of CA, including many frost-free areas, is too cold. Only the area of south coastal CA (San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles Counties) is potentially favorable for medfly, but in the absence of measurable populations, we cannot say whether it is established there. The majority of medfly discoveries over the past 35 years have occurred in south coastal CA, but discoveries also occurred in Santa Clara County in northern CA, mostly during 1975 and 1980–1981. Santa Clara County, just south of San Francisco Bay, is generally marginal for medfly, but favorability increased approximately 10% during the period 1979–1981. Medfly has been established in Italy for decades, and our model predicts its wide distribution in the southern and western regions of the country. The fly is restricted in northern areas and at higher elevations of Italy by winter temperatures. Temperature is expected to increase in CA and the Mediterranean Basin. We used two scenarios consisting of increasing observed daily temperatures +2 and +3°C to examine the effects on the potential distribution of the fly in CA and Italy. Increasing temperatures expand the favorable range for medfly northward along the coast of CA, but decrease it in the southern reaches of current favorability. A similar but greater increase in geographic range is predicted for Italy. We examine critically some ongoing eradication programs in CA, and question the scientific basis for them. We also review some climate matching approaches used to assess the potential geographic distribution of invasive species

Eradication of invasive species: why the biology matters.

Published bi- and tri-trophic physiologically based demographic system models having similar sub components are used to assess prospectively the geographic distributions and relative abundance (a measure of invasiveness) of six invasive herbivorous insect species across the United States and Mexico. The plant hosts and insect species included in the study are: 1) cotton/pink bollworm, 2) a fruit tree host/Mediterranean fruit fly, 3) olive/olive fly, 4) a perennial host/light brown apple moth, 5) grapevine/glassy-winged sharpshooter and its two egg parasitoids, and 6) grapevine/European grapevine moth. All of these species are currently or have been targets for eradication. The goal of the analyses is to predict and explain prospectively the disparate distributions of the six species as a basis for examining eradication or containment efforts against them. The eradication of the new world screwworm is also reviewed in the discussion section because of its pivotal role in the development of the eradication paradigm. The models used are mechanistic descriptions of the weather driven biology of the species. Observed daily weather data (i.e., max-min temperatures, solar radiation) from 1,221 locations across the United States and Mexico for the period 1983-2003 were used to drive the models. Soil moisture and nutrition were assumed nonlimiting. The simulation results were mapped using GRASS GIS. The mathematical underpinnings of the modeling approach are reviewed in the appendix and in the supplemental materials. © 2013 Entomological Society of America

Prospective Analysis of the Geographic Distribution and Relative Abundance of Asian Citrus Psyllid (Hemiptera: Liviidae) and Citrus Greening Disease in North America and the Mediterranean Basin

The invasive Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) is the vector of the bacterial pathogen ('Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus') that is the putative causal agent of citrus greening disease (Huanglongbing disease) in citrus in many areas of the world. The capacity to predict the potential geographic distribution, phenology and relative abundance of the pest and disease is pivotal to developing sound policy for their management. A weather-driven physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) system was developed to summarize the available data in the literature, and used to assess prospectively the geographic distribution and relative yield of citrus, the relative densities of the psyllid, its parasitoid (Tamarixia radiata Waterston), and the potential severity of citrus greening disease in North America and the Mediterranean Basin. The potential for natural and biological control of citrus psyllid was examined prospectively

Comments on the concept of ultra-low, cryptic tropical fruit fly populations

Desde sus primeras pinturas como la ‘Plaza de Italia’ en 1913, Giorgio De Chirico ha sido uno de los pintores más influyentes del pasado siglo. La Casa Malaparte construida en 1937 y diseñada por el arquitecto Adalberto Libera ha sido una de las aclamadas obras del Movimiento Moderno pero con un reconocimiento tardío. No hay ninguna documentación de que la Casa Malaparte haya estado influenciada por la pintura Chiriquiana pero ambas obras están estrechamente relacionadas. La manera de entender y representar el espacio, la cercana relación entre paisaje y arquitectura, la utilización de un mismo lenguaje, el tratamiento del suelo, la importancia del horizonte, el juego de color y de luces, el dinamismo de su composiciones dentro de una profunda atemporalidad o la descontextualización son puntos tangentes en ambas obras. Propiedades y recursos que construyen unas atmósferas únicas. A partir de una comparación teórica y gráfica se investigan estos aspectos en común. Se llevan a cabo transformaciones en el lenguaje visual, basadas en métodos surrealistas, sobre las pinturas y la documentación de la casa. Esta serie de transformaciones modifican el propio proyecto y se revelan de una manera diferente. Asimismo los dos ambientes se comparan con el fin de ver si la casa podría haber estado influenciada por su pintura

A model for the overwintering process of European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller) (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) populations

The paper deals with the development, parametrization and validation of a phenology model of the overwintering process of European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller) populations in northern latitudes. The model is built on diapause and poikilothermic population development theories and represents the phenological events of entries into and emergence from pre-diapause, diapause and post-diapause phases. The rate sum models for pre-diapause and post-diapause development are based on published non-linear temperature dependent rate functions. The rate sum model for diapause, however, is negatively affected by the photoperiod during diapause and positively influenced by the photoperiod at the time of diapause entry. The diapause model is parametrized with 3-year data from 25 locations in Europe and Cyprus, and validated with 1-3 year observations from 18 locations in Europe and California. Despite restrictive assumptions and limitations imposed by weather data recorded at variable distances from the observation sites, and the variable qualities of observation data, the model’s predictive and explanatory capabilities are useful for adaptive pest management and assessments of the invasive potential. The need for controlled experiments is recognized and suggestions are made for improving the model

Climate warming effects on grape and grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) in the Palearctic region

The grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the principal native pest of grape in the Palearctic region. In the present study, we assessed prospectively the relative abundance of the moth in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using linked physiologically-based demographic models for grape and L. botrana. The model includes the effects of temperature, day-length and fruit stage on moth development rates, survival and fecundity. Daily weather data for 1980-2010 were used to simulate the dynamics of grapevine and L. botrana in 4506 lattice cells across the region. Average grape yield and pupae per vine were used as metrics of favourability. The results were mapped using the grass Geographic Information System (http://grass.osgeo.org). The model predicts a wide distribution for L. botrana with highest populations in warmer regions in a wide band along latitude 40°N. The effects of climate warming on grapevine and L. botrana were explored using regional climate model projections based on the A1B scenario of an average +1.8°C warming during the period 2040-2050 compared with the base period (1960-1970). Under climate change, grape yields increase northwards and with a higher elevation but decrease in hotter areas. Similarly, L. botrana levels increase in northern areas but decrease in the hot areas where summer temperatures approach its upper thermal limit. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society

Regras de decisão na amostragem presença-ausência do dano causado pelo bicho-mineiro (Leucoptera coffeella Guérin-Menéville, 1842)

An accurate but simple presence-absence sampling method is proposed for estimating densities of lesions on leaves, caused by the coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella (Guérin - Menéville, 1842). This sampling method enables IPM Scouts to quickly determine whether the infestation has reached the action threshold of one leaf miner lesion per leaf. The accuracy of the sample size can also be determined.Um método preciso e simples de amostragem da presença-ausência de lesões causadas pelo bicho-mineiro (Leucoptera coffeella (Guérin-Menéville, 1842) é proposto para estimar a densidade destas lesões. Este método de monitoração permite aos especialistas do MIP determinar rapidamente se a infestação alcançou o limiar de ação de uma lesão por tolha. A precisão do tamanho da amostra pode também ser determinada