Desarrollo y evaluación de modelos para la toma de decisiones: caracterización de la producción de anguilas (Anguilla anguilla L.) en sistemas intensivos

El objetivo principal de la tesis desarrollada es conseguir una mejora del régimen de explotación en una piscifactoría de anguilas europeas (Anguilla anguilla L.) a través de unas herramientas de predicción y simulación lo suficientemente fiables, que permitan al acuicultor prever a corto y medio plazo los acontecimientos que van a suceder desde un punto de vista patológico, así como a nivel de control de parámetros físicos, químicos y biológicos. De manera global, los principales beneficios que se obtienen de la aplicación del sistema de predicción y simulación son: 1,- Desde el punto de vista patológico, se puede llevar a cabo un diagnóstico precoz de la enfermedad, gracias al cual será posible la aplicación del tratamiento preventivo adecuado, con el consecuente ahorro de productos terapéuticos y disminución de la mortalidad. Para ello, se ha programado un sistema experto en cuyo motor de inferencia se combina el potencial de la lógica borrosa con el método de transmisión de la incertidumbre conocido como teoría de Dempster-Shafer. 2,- La predicción de las condiciones físico-químicas permite al mismo tiempo evaluar el comportamiento de la planta en su totalidad, de tal forma que el gestor puede adecuar las actividades de los operarios para, en el caso de un peligro significativo, establecer un sistema de control que modifique la desviación de los parámetros afectados hasta sus niveles normales. El problema de la predicción de los parámetros físico-químicos se ha resuelto mediante la aplicación conjunta de técnicas estadísticas clásicas (regresión múltiple de series temporales, suavizados lineales, modelos MM, AR, ARMA y ARIMA) y modelos de Redes Neuronales Computacionales (RNCs). 3,- La predicción de la evolución de los parámetros poblacionales facilita el control de la producción, mortalidad, distribución de las raciones diarias de alimento, seguimiento del stock, y puede servir como indicativo de la estabilidad o variabilidad de las condiciones ambientales dentro de la explotación. Permite, por otra parte, la definición de lo que se conoce como estrategia de producción, en la que se define la forma de comercialización del producto y su impacto sobre el stoc

Influence of the electric energy non-regulated market in the intensive aquaculture plants associated to cooling effluents

En este trabajo se analiza el efecto que la liberalización del mercado eléctrico tiene sobre la variación de los regímenes de temperatura del agua en plantas de acuicultura intensiva que aprovechan los efluentes de refrigeración de centrales generadoras de electricidad. Para ello se han utilizado datos de una instalación dedicada al engorde de anguilas europeas, la cual toma el agua caliente del efluente de refrigeración de la Central Térmica de Puente Nuevo (Córdoba). Los resultados indican que la liberalización del mercado del sector eléctrico tiene una influencia significativa sobre la forma y cantidad de energía generada por la Central Térmica, y por consiguiente sobre el régimen termal del efluente de refrigeración. Los niveles de temperatura en el interior de la instalación son dependientes asimismo de la temperatura del agua en el efluente de refrigeración, estimándose la disminución de los índices de crecimiento debidos a este factor en un 5%.In this paper, the effect of the electric energy non-regulated market in the water thermal regimes variation of intensive fishfarms that use the heated water for cooling of power plants is analysed. This way, data of aneel intensive rearing system was used. In this fishfarm the heated water is drawn from the cooling effluent of the Puente Nuevo power plant (Córdoba). The results show that the non-regulated market has a significant effect on the form and amount of generated energy and the thermal regime of the cooling effluent. The temperature levels in the fishfarm depend of the water temperature of cooling effluent, being estimated the decrease of the growth index in 5%

Integrating local environmental data and information from non-driven citizen science to estimate jellyfish abundance in Costa del Sol (southern Spain)

Tourism, fishing and aquaculture are key economic sectors of Costa del Sol (southern Iberian Peninsula). The management of these activities is sometimes disturbed by the onshore arrival and stranding of jellyfish swarms. In the absence data on the occurrence of these organisms, it may be interesting to explore data from non-driven systems, such as social networks. The present study show how data in text format from a mobile app called Infomedusa can be processed and used to model the relationship between estimated abundance of jellyfish on the beaches and local environmental conditions. The data retrieved from this app using artificial intelligence procedures (transition network or TN algorithm), were used as input for GAM models to estimate the abundance of jellyfish based on wind speed and direction. The analysis of data provided by Infomedusa indicated that only 30.39% of messages provided by the users had information about absence/presence of jellyfishes in the beaches. On the other hand, the TN processing capacity showed an accuracy level to discriminate messages with information on absence/presence of jellyfish slightly higher than 80%. GAM models considering the wind direction and speed of previous day explained between 37% and 77% of the variance of jellyfish abundance estimate from Infomedusa data. In conclusion, this approach may contribute to the development of a system for predicting the onshore arrival of jellyfish in the Costa del Sol.Versión del edito

Chapter 19. The Blackspot seabream fishery in the Strait of Gibraltar: lessons and future perspectives of shared marine resource

The Blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo) is one of the most important commercially-exploited fish species for the Spanish and Moroccan fleets which operate in the Strait of Gibraltar. In recent years, landings of Blackspot seabream in the main ports have decreased significantly respect previous periods of maximum catches, which makes it necessary to properly assess the abundance before establishing a management plan to make the fishery sustainable over time. In this chapter, we describe three different approaches to assess the abundance of this species in the Strait of Gibraltar. The results of three approaches tested (LCA/VPA, Gadget model and SimFish model) point out that from the 2010 the stock is kept at very low levels that oscillate between 900 and 1600 t, which supposes that the total biomass is between a 16% and 29% of the potential biomass. Additionally, the reference point values estimated by LCA/VPA and Gadget (F0.1 = 0.12-0.17) imply a clear overexploitation of the resource what is reinforced by the SimFish model results indicating that at least the 64% of abundance variation is a consequence of the fishery component.En prens

Consenso colombiano de atención, diagnóstico y manejo de la infección por SARS-COV-2/COVID-19 en establecimientos de atención de la salud Recomendaciones basadas en consenso de expertos e informadas en la evidencia

The “Asociación Colombiana de Infectología” (ACIN) and the “Instituto de Evaluación de Nuevas Tecnologías de la Salud” (IETS) created a task force to develop recommendations for Covid 19 health care diagnosis, management and treatment informed, and based, on evidence. Theses reccomendations are addressed to the health personnel on the Colombian context of health services. © 2020 Asociacion Colombiana de Infectologia. All rights reserved

Epidemiological trends of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain, 2015-2019

Altres ajuts: Spanish AIDS Research Network; European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER).Objectives: We assessed the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and active HCV infection (HCV-RNA-positive) in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Spain in 2019 and compared the results with those of four similar studies performed during 2015-2018. Methods: The study was performed in 41 centres. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 1%. Patients were selected by random sampling with proportional allocation. Results: The reference population comprised 41 973 PLWH, and the sample size was 1325. HCV serostatus was known in 1316 PLWH (99.3%), of whom 376 (28.6%) were HCV antibody (Ab)-positive (78.7% were prior injection drug users); 29 were HCV-RNA-positive (2.2%). Of the 29 HCV-RNA-positive PLWH, infection was chronic in 24, it was acute/recent in one, and it was of unknown duration in four. Cirrhosis was present in 71 (5.4%) PLWH overall, three (10.3%) HCV-RNA-positive patients and 68 (23.4%) of those who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy (p = 0.04). The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies decreased steadily from 37.7% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2019 (p < 0.001); the prevalence of active HCV infection decreased from 22.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Uptake of anti-HCV treatment increased from 53.9% in 2015 to 95.0% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In Spain, the prevalence of active HCV infection among PLWH at the end of 2019 was 2.2%, i.e. 90.0% lower than in 2015. Increased exposure to DAAs was probably the main reason for this sharp reduction. Despite the high coverage of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents, HCV-related cirrhosis remains significant in this population

Evolution of the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Spain between March and November 2020: SEMI-COVID national registry

Objectives: Since the results of the RECOVERY trial, WHO recommendations about the use of corticosteroids (CTs) in COVID-19 have changed. The aim of the study is to analyse the evolutive use of CTs in Spain during the pandemic to assess the potential influence of new recommendations. Material and methods: A retrospective, descriptive, and observational study was conducted on adults hospitalised due to COVID-19 in Spain who were included in the SEMI-COVID- 19 Registry from March to November 2020. Results: CTs were used in 6053 (36.21%) of the included patients. The patients were older (mean (SD)) (69.6 (14.6) vs. 66.0 (16.8) years; p < 0.001), with hypertension (57.0% vs. 47.7%; p < 0.001), obesity (26.4% vs. 19.3%; p < 0.0001), and multimorbidity prevalence (20.6% vs. 16.1%; p < 0.001). These patients had higher values (mean (95% CI)) of C-reactive protein (CRP) (86 (32.7-160) vs. 49.3 (16-109) mg/dL; p < 0.001), ferritin (791 (393-1534) vs. 470 (236- 996) µg/dL; p < 0.001), D dimer (750 (430-1400) vs. 617 (345-1180) µg/dL; p < 0.001), and lower Sp02/Fi02 (266 (91.1) vs. 301 (101); p < 0.001). Since June 2020, there was an increment in the use of CTs (March vs. September; p < 0.001). Overall, 20% did not receive steroids, and 40% received less than 200 mg accumulated prednisone equivalent dose (APED). Severe patients are treated with higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%. Conclusions: Patients with greater comorbidity, severity, and inflammatory markers were those treated with CTs. In severe patients, there is a trend towards the use of higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%

Morphometric relations for body size and mouth dimensions for four fish species in the Strait of Gibraltar

Background. The deep-water longline fishery of the blackspot seabream, Pagellus bogaraveo, is an economically important fishery in the Strait of Gibraltar, which is a very complex transition ecosystem between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean with an extreme spatial and temporal variability. This paper presents a series of morphometric relations for the four most important species in this fishery. Some ecological considerations about the results are also discussed. Materials and methods. The data were collected during a gear selectivity study, using different sizes of hooks baited with sardine. Relations for weight–length, length–length, and mouth dimensions for blackspot seabream, Pagellus bogaraveo (Brünnich, 1768); Atlantic pomfret, Brama brama (Bonnaterre, 1788); blackbelly rosefish, Helicolenus dactylopterus (Delaroche, 1809); and Mediterranean horse mackerel, Trachurus mediterraneus (Steindachner, 1868) were estimated and compared with the ones reported for the same species from other areas. Results. The sample size varied from 89 for T. mediterraneus to 2180 for P. bogaraveo. The fitted L–W relations explained more than 81% of the variance. For P. bogaraveo and T. mediterraneus, the estimated allometric coefficient was higher than those reported for other areas, showing a faster increase in weight, in contrast to H. dactylopterus and B. brama that showed a slower increase in weight. Moreover, linear and highly significant relations between mouth size and fish length were found for P. bogaraveo, H. dactylopterus, and T. mediterraneus. Conclusion. In this study, the first record for total length–standard length relation for H. dactylopterus is reported based on real measurements. There has been no previous studies on the relation between the different mouth size dimensions for the studied species as well as for mouth size and body length relations for P. bogaraveo and H. dactylopterus. The difference between estimated and reported coefficients might be attributed to different environmental adaptations and to the size ranges used due to the gear-size selectivity

Improving the interpretability of the effects of environmental factors on abundance of fish stocks

Adequately assess the environmental effects on commercially exploited fish stocks is one of the main challenges faced by stock managers in their attempt to achieve ecosystemic management. In this study, we have developed a methodology which allows simulate the evolution of abundance or biomass of a fish population and calculate two indexes (the significant effect of the environmental parameter –EF- and the relative weight index –RW-) that improve the interpretability of the environmental effects on abundance of fish stocks. This methodology is based on the assumption that under the premise of environmental invariability the variation in the abundance of a population is linearly dependent on its abundance in the past. These indexes have been integrated into a decision support system namely SFish SubClass 1.1, specifically designed to disaggregate the effects of different environmental factors on a commercially exploited fish population. We have applied our model to the fishery of Pagellus bogaraveo in a complex environmental area (Strait of Gibraltar). The results show that the developed methodology provides plausible simulations. Finally, the RW and EF indexes indicated that the most influential variables were salinity, sea temperature and salinity flux