Winners and losers from Johne’s disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd: a Markov-Chain simulation

In this paper, we evaluated the welfare effects of a hypothetical programme of Johne's disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd on different stakeholders in the domestic milk market. We undertook the evaluation using a Markov-Chain simulation and applying an economic welfare analysis which takes into consideration the effects of an eradication programme on product price, on output quantity, on cost and on milk yield for given levels of supply and demand elasticities. We found that, following the eradication of the disease, milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas price and unit cost of milk production fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around £14.3 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds around £13.4 million whereas producers with uninfected herds lost around £10.7 million in discounted surplus. The gain in surplus made by consumers and owners of infected herds, however, more than made up for the loss in surplus made by owners of un-infected herds. Therefore, on balance, Scotland gained a net economic surplus of £17 million from the programme.Johne's, eradication programme, economic welfare effects, economic surplus, I180,

Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks

An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact of this disease on the industry by providing a source of clean replacementsLivestock Production/Industries, Maedi-Visna, Model, Markov Chain, Sheep, Control,

Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland

This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis, comparing six alternative control strategies for the eradication of Bluetongue virus 8 against five incursion scenarios in cattle and sheep populations. The economic analysis assumes a common baseline unavoidable cost of public and private measures that together contribute to prevention of incursion of BTV8 into Scotland. These costs continue over the five year horizon of this analysis regardless of whether a BTV8 epidemic ensues in Scotland and their total present value was found to be approximately £141m over the 5year period. The benefit of this investment is the costs of a BTV8 outbreak avoided; which depends on the time, location and nature of the incursion, on the control strategies adopted to counter each incursion, on the persistence of the incursion and on the opportunities to mitigate the damage. Specific variations in all these aspects were explored. The benefit-cost ratios were ranked within each incursion scenario to evaluate the efficiency of control outlays. Although the economic model found that benefit-cost ratios were greater than 1 for all interventions strategies examined, the control strategy option with 100% vaccination and protection zone set at Scottish Borders were economically preferable. This implies that if avoided this control option would deliver the greatest benefit from investment in baseline prevention costs. However, in terms of outbreak losses, this vaccination strategy was always most costly. On the other hand, the control strategy with 50% vaccination and all Scotland as a protection zone often provides the lowest benefits in all control options examinedbluetongue virus, epidemiology, direct and indirect costs, benefit analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

E. coli O157 on Scottish cattle farms: evidence of local spread and persistence using repeat cross-sectional data

<b>Background</b><p></p> Escherichia coli (E. coli) O157 is a virulent zoonotic strain of enterohaemorrhagic E. coli. In Scotland (1998-2008) the annual reported rate of human infection is 4.4 per 100,000 population which is consistently higher than other regions of the UK and abroad. Cattle are the primary reservoir. Thus understanding infection dynamics in cattle is paramount to reducing human infections.<p></p> A large database was created for farms sampled in two cross-sectional surveys carried out in Scotland (1998 - 2004). A statistical model was generated to identify risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Specific hypotheses were tested regarding the presence of E. coli O157 on local farms and the farms previous status. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles were further examined to ascertain whether local spread or persistence of strains could be inferred.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> The presence of an E. coli O157 positive local farm (average distance: 5.96km) in the Highlands, North East and South West, farm size and the number of cattle moved onto the farm 8 weeks prior to sampling were significant risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Previous status of a farm was not a significant predictor of current status (p = 0.398). Farms within the same sampling cluster were significantly more likely to be the same PFGE type (p < 0.001), implicating spread of strains between local farms. Isolates with identical PFGE types were observed to persist across the two surveys, including 3 that were identified on the same farm, suggesting an environmental reservoir. PFGE types that were persistent were more likely to have been observed in human clinical infections in Scotland (p < 0.001) from the same time frame.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> The results of this study demonstrate the spread of E. coli O157 between local farms and highlight the potential link between persistent cattle strains and human clinical infections in Scotland. This novel insight into the epidemiology of Scottish E. coli O157 paves the way for future research into the mechanisms of transmission which should help with the design of control measures to reduce E. coli O157 from livestock-related sources

The small subunit of Rubisco and its potential as an engineering target

Rubisco catalyses the first rate-limiting step in CO2 fixation and is responsible for the vast majority of organic carbon present in the biosphere. The function and regulation of Rubisco remain an important research topic and a longstanding engineering target to enhance the efficiency of photosynthesis for agriculture and green biotechnology. The most abundant form of Rubisco (Form I) consists of eight large and eight small subunits, and is found in all plants, algae, cyanobacteria, and most phototrophic and chemolithoautotrophic proteobacteria. Although the active sites of Rubisco are located on the large subunits, expression of the small subunit regulates the size of the Rubisco pool in plants and can influence the overall catalytic efficiency of the Rubisco complex. The small subunit is now receiving increasing attention as a potential engineering target to improve the performance of Rubisco. Here we review our current understanding of the role of the small subunit and our growing capacity to explore its potential to modulate Rubisco catalysis using engineering biology approaches

A framework for estimating society’s economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: the case of Johne’s disease

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties

Applying phylogenomics to understand the emergence of Shiga Toxin producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 strains causing severe human disease in the United Kingdom

Shiga Toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7 is a recently emerged zoonotic pathogen with considerable morbidity. Since the serotype emerged in the 1980s, research has focussed on unravelling the evolutionary events from the E. coli O55:H7 ancestor to the contemporaneous globally dispersed strains. In this study the genomes of over 1000 isolates from human clinical cases and cattle, spanning the history of STEC O157:H7 in the United Kingdom were sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the ancestry, key acquisition events and global context of the strains. Dated phylogenies estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor of the current circulating global clone to 175 years ago, followed by rapid diversification. We show the acquisition of specific virulence determinates occurred relatively recently and coincides with its recent detection in the human population. Using clinical outcome data from 493 cases of STEC O157:H7 we assess the relative risk of severe disease including HUS from each of the defined clades in the population and show the dramatic effect Shiga toxin complement has on virulence. We describe two strain replacement events that have occurred in the cattle population in the UK over the last 30 years; one resulting in a highly virulent strain that has accounted for the majority of clinical cases in the UK over the last decade. This work highlights the need to understand the selection pressures maintaining Shiga-toxin encoding bacteriophages in the ruminant reservoir and the study affirms the requirement for close surveillance of this pathogen in both ruminant and human populations

Combining Slaughterhouse Surveillance Data with Cattle Tracing Scheme and Environmental Data to Quantify Environmental Risk Factors for Liver Fluke in Cattle.

Liver fluke infection causes serious disease (fasciolosis) in cattle and sheep in many regions of the world, resulting in production losses and additional economic consequences due to condemnation of the liver at slaughter. Liver fluke depends on mud snails as an intermediate host and infect livestock when ingested through grazing. Therefore, environmental factors play important roles in infection risk and climate change is likely to modify this. Here, we demonstrate how slaughterhouse data can be integrated with other data, including animal movement and climate variables to identify environmental risk factors for liver fluke in cattle in Scotland. We fitted a generalized linear mixed model to the data, with exposure-weighted random and fixed effects, an approach which takes into account the amount of time cattle spent at different locations, exposed to different levels of risk. This enabled us to identify an increased risk of liver fluke with increased animal age, rainfall, and temperature and for farms located further to the West, in excess of the risk associated with a warmer, wetter climate. This model explained 45% of the variability in liver fluke between farms, suggesting that the unexplained 55% was due to factors not included in the model, such as differences in on-farm management and presence of wet habitats. This approach demonstrates the value of statistically integrating routinely recorded slaughterhouse data with other pre-existing data, creating a powerful approach to quantify disease risks in production animals. Furthermore, this approach can be used to better quantify the impact of projected climate change on liver fluke risk for future studies