Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact - an investigation using mathematical models

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail"of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.</p

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.MethodsWe developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.ResultsOur projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.ConclusionsWhile projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases

Complex interactions in soil-transmitted helminth co-infections from a cross-sectional study in Sri Lanka

Co-infection with multiple soil-transmitted helminth (STH) species is common in communities with a high STH prevalence. The life histories of STH species share important characteristics, particularly in the gut, and there is the potential for interaction, but evidence on whether interactions may be facilitating or antagonistic are limited.Data from a pretreatment cross-sectional survey of STH egg deposition in a tea plantation community in Sri Lanka were analysed to evaluate patterns of co-infection and changes in egg deposition.There were positive associations between Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) and both Necator americanus (hookworm) and Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm), but N. americanus and Ascaris were not associated. N. americanus and Ascaris infections had lower egg depositions when they were in single infections than when they were co-infecting. There was no clear evidence of a similar effect of co-infection in Trichuris egg deposition.Associations in prevalence and egg deposition in STH species may vary, possibly indicating that effects of co-infection are species dependent. We suggest that between-species interactions that differ by species could explain these results, but further research in different populations is needed to support this theory

Host genetic polymorphisms and serological response against malaria in a selected population in Sri Lanka

Abstract Background Antibodies against the merozoite surface protein 1-19 (MSP1-19) and the apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) of the malaria parasite (Plasmodium vivax) are proven to be important in protection against clinical disease. Differences in the production/maintenance of antibodies may be due to many factors including host genetics. This paper discusses the association of 4 anti-malarial antibodies with selected host genetic markers. Methods Blood was collected from individuals (n = 242) with a history of malaria within past 15 years for DNA and serum. ELISA was carried out for serum to determine the concentration of anti-malarial antibodies MSP1-19 and AMA1 for both vivax and falciparum malaria. 170 SNPs related to malaria were genotyped. Associations between seropositivity, antibody levels and genetic, non-genetic factors were determined. Results Age ranged 13–74 years (mean age = 40.21 years). Majority were females. Over 90% individuals possessed either one or more type(s) of anti-malarial antibodies. Five SNPs were significantly associated with seropositivity. One SNP was associated with MSP1-19_Pv(rs739718); 4 SNPs with MSP1-19_Pf (rs6874639, rs2706379, rs2706381 and rs2075820) and1 with AMA1_Pv (rs2075820). Eleven and 7 genotypes (out of 15) were significantly associated with either presence or absence of antibodies. Three SNPs were found to be significantly associated with the antibody levels viz. rs17411697 with MSP1-19_Pv, rs2227491 with AMA1_Pv and rs229587 with AMA1_Pf. Linkage of the markers in the two groups was similar, but lower LOD scores were observed in seropositives compared to seronegatives. Discussion and conclusions The study suggests that several SNPs in the human genome that exist in Sri Lankan populations are significantly associated with anti-malarial antibodies, either with generation and/or maintenance of antibodies for longer periods, which can be due to either individual polymorphisms or most probably a combined effect of the markers

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact - an investigation using mathematical models

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings

Model parameter definitions and values.

<p>Model parameter definitions and values.</p

Seasonal external stage parameters.

<p>Annual parameter values for South Korea (left) and Nigeria (right). From top to bottom: maturation time (days); daily death rate of infective larval stages; proportion of eggs that are viable following maturation. Depicted as best fit model averages with 95% credible intervals.</p