Qualitative assessment of the role of public health education program on HIV transmission dynamics

© The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.This paper presents a nonlinear deterministic model for assessing the impact of public health education campaign on curtailing the spread of the HIV pandemic in a population. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals that it exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when a certain threshold quantity, known as the 'effective reproduction number' (Reff), is less than unity. The epidemiological implication of BB is that a public health education campaign could fail to effectively control HIV, even when the classical requirement of having the associated reproduction number less than unity is satisfied. Furthermore, an explicit threshold value is derived above which such an education campaign could lead to detrimental outcome (increase disease burden), and below which it would have positive population-level impact (reduce disease burden in the community). It is shown that the BB phenomenon is caused by imperfect efficacy of the public health education program. The model is used to assess the potential impact of some targeted public health education campaigns using data from numerous countries.Kano State Government of Nigeria (N.H.); Natural Science and Engineering Research Council and Mathematics of Information Technology and Complex Systems of Canada (A.B.G.

A two-dimensional mathematical model of percutaneous drug absorption

Background When a drug is applied on the skin surface, the concentration of the drug accumulated in the skin and the amount of the drug eliminated into the blood vessel depend on the value of a parameter, r. The values of r depend on the amount of diffusion and the normalized skin-capillary clearence. It is defined as the ratio of the steady-state drug concentration at the skin-capillary boundary to that at the skin-surface in one-dimensional models. The present paper studies the effect of the parameter values, when the region of contact of the skin with the drug, is a line segment on the skin surface. Methods Though a simple one-dimensional model is often useful to describe percutaneous drug absorption, it may be better represented by multi-dimensional models. A two-dimensional mathematical model is developed for percutaneous absorption of a drug, which may be used when the diffusion of the drug in the direction parallel to the skin surface must be examined, as well as in the direction into the skin, examined in one-dimensional models. This model consists of a linear second-order parabolic equation with appropriate initial conditions and boundary conditions. These boundary conditions are of Dirichlet type, Neumann type or Robin type. A finite-difference method which maintains second-order accuracy in space along the boundary, is developed to solve the parabolic equation. Extrapolation in time is applied to improve the accuracy in time. Solution of the parabolic equation gives the concentration of the drug in the skin at a given time. Results Simulation of the numerical methods described is carried out with various values of the parameter r. The illustrations are given in the form of figures. Conclusion Based on the values of r, conclusions are drawn about (1) the flow rate of the drug, (2) the flux and the cumulative amount of drug eliminated into the receptor cell, (3) the steady-state value of the flux, (4) the time to reach the steady-state value of the flux and (5) the optimal value of r, which gives the maximum absorption of the drug. The paper gives valuable information which can be obtained by this two-dimensional model, that cannot be obtained with one-dimensional models. Thus this model improves upon the much simpler one-dimensional models. Some future directions of the work based on this model and the one-dimensional non-linear models that exist in the literature, are also discussed

Anatomy of the Epidemiological Literature on the 2003 SARS Outbreaks in Hong Kong and Toronto: A Time-Stratified Review

Weijia Xing and colleagues reviewed the published epidemiological literature on SARS and show that less than a quarter of papers were published during the epidemic itself, suggesting that the research published lagged substantially behind the need for it

Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study

Background: The Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus has caused recurrent outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012. Although MERS has low overall human-to-human transmission potential, there is occasional amplification in the healthcare setting, a pattern reminiscent of the dynamics of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreaks in 2003. Here we provide a head-to-head comparison of exposure patterns and transmission dynamics of large hospital clusters of MERS and SARS, including the most recent South Korean outbreak of MERS in 2015. Methods: To assess the unexpected nature of the recent South Korean nosocomial outbreak of MERS and estimate the probability of future large hospital clusters, we compared exposure and transmission patterns for previously reported hospital clusters of MERS and SARS, based on individual-level data and transmission tree information. We carried out simulations of nosocomial outbreaks of MERS and SARS using branching process models rooted in transmission tree data, and inferred the probability and characteristics of large outbreaks. Results: A significant fraction of MERS cases were linked to the healthcare setting, ranging from 43.5 % for the nosocomial outbreak in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 2014 to 100 % for both the outbreak in Al-Hasa, Saudi Arabia, in 2013 and the outbreak in South Korea in 2015. Both MERS and SARS nosocomial outbreaks are characterized by early nosocomial super-spreading events, with the reproduction number dropping below 1 within three to five disease generations. There was a systematic difference in the exposure patterns of MERS and SARS: a majority of MERS cases occurred among patients who sought care in the same facilities as the index case, whereas there was a greater concentration of SARS cases among healthcare workers throughout the outbreak. Exposure patterns differed slightly by disease generation, however, especially for SARS. Moreover, the distributions of secondary cases per single primary case varied highly across individual hospital outbreaks (Kruskal–Wallis test; P \u3c 0.0001), with significantly higher transmission heterogeneity in the distribution of secondary cases for MERS than SARS. Simulations indicate a 2-fold higher probability of occurrence of large outbreaks (\u3e100 cases) for SARS than MERS (2 % versus 1 %); however, owing to higher transmission heterogeneity, the largest outbreaks of MERS are characterized by sharper incidence peaks. The probability of occurrence of MERS outbreaks larger than the South Korean cluster (n = 186) is of the order of 1 %. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the South Korean outbreak followed a similar progression to previously described hospital clusters involving coronaviruses, with early super-spreading events generating a disproportionately large number of secondary infections, and the transmission potential diminishing greatly in subsequent generations. Differences in relative exposure patterns and transmission heterogeneity of MERS and SARS could point to changes in hospital practices since 2003 or differences in transmission mechanisms of these coronaviruses

Reconstructing disease transmission dynamics from animal movements and test data

Disease outbreaks are often accompanied by a wealth of data, usually in the form of movements, locations and tests. This data is a valuable resource in which data scientists and epidemiologists can reconstruct the transmission pathways and parameters and thus devise control strategies. However, the spatiotemporal data gathered can be both vast whilst at the same time incomplete or contain errors frustrating the effort to accurately model the transmission processes. Fortunately, several techniques exist that can be used to infer the relevant information to help explain these processes. The aim of this article is to provide the reader with a user friendly introduction to the techniques used in dealing with the large datasets that exists in epidemiological and ecological science and the common pitfalls that are to be avoided as well as an introduction to inference techniques for estimating parameter values for mathematical models from spatiotemporal datasets

A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several <it>concerns </it>about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these <it>concerns </it>and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility.</p