Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955- 2019

We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100km radius of Bermuda between 1955 and 2019. The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in tropical cyclone intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30kts from 33 to 63kts (r=0.94, p=0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October (ASO) sea surface temperature (SST) of 1.1°C (0.17°C per decade) r= 0.4 (p<0.01) and increasing average ocean temperature between 0.5–0.7°C (0.08-0.1°C per decade) r=0.3(p<0.01) in the depth range 0-300m. The strongest correlation is found between TC intensity and ocean temperature averaged through the top 50m ocean layer (T50m ) r=0.37 (p<0.01). We show how tropical cyclone potential intensity estimates are closer to actual intensity by using T50m as opposed to SST using the Bermuda Atlantic Timeseries Hydrostation S dataset. We modify the widely used sea surface temperature potential intensity index by using T50m to provide a closer estimate of the observed minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and associated Vmax than by using SST, creating a T50m potential intensity (T50m_PI) index. The average MSLP difference is reduced by 12mb and proportional (r=0.74, p<0.01) to the SST/(T50m ) temperature difference. We also suggest the index could be used over a wider area of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic where there is a shallow mixed layer depth

The Vital Role of Social Workers in Community Partnerships: The Alliance for Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Questioning Youth

The account of The Alliance for Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender, and Questioning (GLBTQ) Youth formation offers a model for developing com- munity-based partnerships. Based in a major urban area, this university-community collaboration was spearheaded by social workers who were responsible for its original conceptualization, for generating community support, and for eventual staffing, administration, direct service provision, and program evaluation design. This article presents the strategic development and evolution of this community- based service partnership, highlighting the roles of schools of social work, academics, and social work students in concert with community funders, practitioners and youth, in responding to the needs of a vulnerable population

Proyecto de colaboración entre Aemet (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) en España y el Servicio Meteorológico de Bermudas (Bermuda Weather Service)

Seminario del Departamento de Desarrollo y Aplicaciones impartido en la sede central de AEMET el 17 de junio de 201

Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models

There are several different estimates of the observed cyclone damage potential of tropical cyclones based on observations of size, intensity and track. For the analysis of climate model data, previous work identified an index, the cyclone damage potential climate index (CDPClimate), based on relative sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone steering flow to estimate the damage potential in climate models. Using millennia-long climate models, CDPClimate is estimated for the North Atlantic basin and compared against values from reanalyses and the observed damage potential. The peak in SSTs in the cyclone main development region with respect to the tropical mean SSTs is smaller in these models than reanalyses, resulting in smaller variations in CDPClimate. Although the year 1995 had the highest observed cyclone damage potential, the year 2010 is a maximum for CDPClimate in the reanalysis data. The models exceed this 2010 value in less than 1% of model years. Using a model with 100 ensemble members, the variability in CDPClimate is examined further. The interannual variability of the ensemble mean results has a very high correlation (R = 0.95) with reanalyses. The high decadal variability is evident and interannual variability is found to have increased during the 30 years after 1981 relative to those prior. The 2010 ensemble mean value is exceeded in other years by individual ensemble members 1.1% of the time. The results from this study suggest that although it is possible to exceed the observed CDP, this is rare in the current climate. However, this study does not consider changes as we move to future climates

Ішлі, бралі валачэбнічкі

Ішлі, бралі валачэбнічкі, / Ішлі яны ды маліліся, / Добрага мужа пыталіся. / Пыталіся ў Іваначкі, / Падыйшлі да варот, / Стукнулі ботам. / – У доме гаспадар? / – Хоць есць да нема. / Да не здаецца / Ды не кажацца,Не пакажацц

Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models

Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the maximum possible number for the present climate of that basin. By estimating both the mean number of tropical cyclones and their possible year-to-year random variability, we find that the likelihood that the maximum number of storms in the Atlantic could be greater than the number of events observed during the 2005 season is less than 3.5%. Using a less restrictive comparison between simulated and observed climate with the internal variability accounted for, this probability increases to 9%; however, the estimated maximum possible number of tropical cyclones does not greatly exceed the 2005 total. Hence, the 2005 season can be used as a risk management benchmark for the maximum possible number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.This work was funded by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences’ Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI). L.-P.C.’s contract is cofinanced by the Ministerio de Economı́a y Competitividad (MINECO) under Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion postdoctoral fellowship number IJCI-2015-23367. This research was partially supported through funding from the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australia’s National Environmental Science Programme. L.-P.C. acknowledges financial support from MINECO (project CGL2015-70353-R). Author contributions: K.J.E.W. and L.-P.C. designed the research. S.L.L., K.J.E.W., M.K., and S.M. performed the analysis with input from L.-P.C., B.H., and M.G. The CSIRO Mk2 and EC-Earth data were made available by B.H. and Q.Z., respectively. S.L.L. wrote the article with input from all living authors. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: Datasets used in this report can be made available upon request from the lead and second authors. In addition, these data are archived by RPI. The MRI data were available from the database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF), which was produced under the SOUSEI program. EC-Earth simulation was performed on resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Linköping University and ECMWF’s computing and archive facilities.Peer Reviewe

On the Desirability and Feasibility of a Global Reanalysis of Tropical Cyclones

What: Accurate records of historical tropical cyclones are invaluable for scientific research and risk quantification. Yet most tropical cyclone data were collected in aid of operational forecasting with mixed attention to their use as a climate archive. To remedy this, as far as possible, a comprehensive reanalysis of Atlantic tropical cyclones was undertaken and is enjoying widespread use. To explore the feasibility of undertaking a similar effort for the rest of the globe, covering about 88% of all tropical cyclones, a workshop was convened, involving 12 scientists from around the world, including researchers, data analysts, and forecasters. When: 22–23 May 2017 Where: Asheville, North Carolin