9 research outputs found
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Challenges and ways forward for sustainable weather and climate services in Africa
Sustainability of African weather and climate information can only be ensured by investing in improved scientific understanding, observational data, and model capability. These requirements must be underpinned by capacity development, knowledge management and partnerships of co-production, communication and coordination
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Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa
Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions
Customization and Validation of a Regional Climate Model Using Satellite Data Over East Africa
This study focused on the customization of the fourth generation International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4.4 and its ability to reproduce the mean climate and most dominant modes of variability over East Africa. The simulations were performed at a spatial resolution of 25 km for the period 1998–2013. The model was driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The customization focus was on cumulus and microphysics schemes during the Short Rains for the year 2000. The best physics combinations were then utilized for the validation studies. The East Africa region and Lake Victoria Basin region are adapted to carry out empirical orthogonal function analysis, during the Short and Long Rains. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data was utilized in the validation of the model. The first mode of variability from the model and observational data during the Short Rains was associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean and the sea surface temperature gradients over the Indian Ocean. During the Long rains, the inter-annual rainfall variability over the Lake Victoria region was associated with the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Indian Ocean and for the East Africa region the associations were weak. The drivers during the Long Rains over East Africa region were then further investigated by splitting the season to the March–April and May periods. The March–April period was positively correlated to the West Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole index, while May was associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. In conclusion, although the model can reproduce the dominant modes of variability as in the observational data sets during the Short Rains, skill was lower during the Long Rains
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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for eastern Africa short rains
Timing of the rainy season is essential for a number of climate sensitive sectors over Eastern Africa. This is particularly true for the agricultural sector, where most activities depend on both the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall throughout the season. Using a combination of observational and reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains season (October to December). Our results indicate enhanced rainfall in October and November during years with early onset and rainfall deficit in years with late onset for the same months. Early onset years are found to be associated with warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian Ocean, and an enhanced moisture flux and anomalous low-level flow into Eastern Africa from as early as the first dekad of September. The late onset years are characterised by cooler SSTs in the western Indian Ocean, anomalous westerly moisture flux and zonal flow limiting moisture supply to the region. The variability in onset date is separated into the interannual and decadal components, and the links with SSTs and low-level circulation over the Indian Ocean basin are examined separately for both timescales. Significant correlations are found between the interannual variability of the onset and the Indian Ocean dipole mode index. On decadal timescales the onset is shown to be partly driven by the variability of the SSTs over the Indian Ocean. Understanding the influence of these potentially predictable SST and moisture patterns on onset variability has huge potential to improve forecasts of the East African short rains. Improved prediction of the variability of the rainy season onset has huge implications for improving key strategic decisions and preparedness action in many sectors, including agriculture
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Exploiting sub-seasonal forecast predictability in Africa: a key to sustainable development
New real-time sub-seasonal forecast information is aiding preparedness and disaster risk reduction decisions in key flood- and drought-vulnerable sectors across Africa and enabling significant progress in sub-Saharan Africa towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. These services are demonstrating the potential for wider development of sub-seasonal user-focussed services at scale across Africa. We make key recommendations to achieve this vision