Behind the cube rule: implications of and evidence against a fractal electoral geography

An earlier version of this paper was issued as Discussion Papers in Economics, 01/03. The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Environment and Planning A, August 2003 35(8) p. 1405-1414In 1909 Parker Smith showed that the ratio of seats won by the two major parties in Britain was close to the cube of the ratio of their votes. Taagepera and Shugart argue, wrongly, that a fractal electoral map implies this. In fact their premises imply that the seats’ ratio will be the votes’ ratio to the power of , not 3. However, in the six countries we examine, the figure is between 2 and 3. This implies that the electoral map is nonfractal, political allegiances becoming less ‘clustered’ as you move from a macro to a micro scale. Taking the U.K., we ask if this is due to the geographical pattern of income distribution, and find that this is even further away from fractality than is voting. This fits the well known ‘neighborhood effect’ whereby poor (rich) people in rich (poor) constituencies vote as if richer (poorer) than they really are

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings

Persistence and change in interregional differences in entrepreneurship: England and Wales, 1921–2011

The paper explores time-persistence in interregional differences of self-employment rates in England and Wales in the 1921–2011 period by using census data. The results suggest a strong path-dependence in entrepreneurship as past self-employment rates have strong bearing on future ones. However, there is also some rank mobility reflected in the upward movements of London boroughs and downward movements of primarily coastal areas. Rank mobility relates to structural changes, changes in human capital, regional age structures and immigration

Exploring constituency-level estimates for the 2017 British general election

Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for intensive canvassing; these are where the contest for a majority in the House of Commons is won and lost. There have been some polls covering those constituencies as a whole, but very few of individual constituencies so there was very little reporting of the outcome for each party in those individual constituencies. That changed with the 2017 general election, when three analysts published estimates on the internet of each party’s vote share separately for each constituency and with those data predicted which party would win each seat. This paper explores the veracity of those estimates, finding that although in general terms they accurately represented the relative position of each constituency in the share of each party’s votes, nevertheless their estimates of which marginal seats would be won by each were not as accurate. The implications of such polls, especially as their predictive ability is improved, is discussed

Lanthanide-based time-resolved luminescence immunoassays

The sensitive and specific detection of analytes such as proteins in biological samples is critical for a variety of applications, for example disease diagnosis. In immunoassays a signal in response to the concentration of analyte present is generated by use of antibodies labeled with radioisotopes, luminophores, or enzymes. All immunoassays suffer to some extent from the problem of the background signal observed in the absence of analyte, which limits the sensitivity and dynamic range that can be achieved. This is especially the case for homogeneous immunoassays and surface measurements on tissue sections and membranes, which typically have a high background because of sample autofluorescence. One way of minimizing background in immunoassays involves the use of lanthanide chelate labels. Luminescent lanthanide complexes have exceedingly long-lived luminescence in comparison with conventional fluorophores, enabling the short-lived background interferences to be removed via time-gated acquisition and delivering greater assay sensitivity and a broader dynamic range. This review highlights the potential of using lanthanide luminescence to design sensitive and specific immunoassays. Techniques for labeling biomolecules with lanthanide chelate tags are discussed, with aspects of chelate design. Microtitre plate-based heterogeneous and homogeneous assays are reviewed and compared in terms of sensitivity, dynamic range, and convenience. The great potential of surface-based time-resolved imaging techniques for biomolecules on gels, membranes, and tissue sections using lanthanide tracers in proteomics applications is also emphasized