How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendations depend sensitively on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. In some circumstances the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than the skeptic, but in others the appropriate recommendation is to be looser. Our results highlight the stringent informational requirements inherent in an activist policy approach to handling asset-price bubbles.

Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?

The output gap – the difference between actual and potential output – is widely regarded as a useful guide to future inflationary pressures, as well as an important indicator of the state of the economy in its own right. Since the output gap is unobservable, however, its estimation is prone to error, particularly in real time. Errors result both from revisions to the underlying data, as well as from end-point problems that are endemic to econometric procedures used to estimate output gaps. These problems reduce the reliability of output gaps estimated in real time, and lead to questions about their usefulness. We examine 121 vintages of Australian GDP data to assess the seriousness of these problems. Our study, which is the first to address these issues using Australian data, is of interest for the method we use to obtain real-time output-gap estimates. Over the past 28 years, our real-time output-gap estimates show no apparent bias, when compared with final output-gap estimates derived with the benefit of hindsight using the latest available data. Furthermore, the root-mean-square difference between the real-time and final output-gap series is less than 2 percentage points, and the correlation between them is over 0.8. Our general conclusion is that quite good estimates of the output gap can be generated in real time, provided a sufficiently flexible and robust approach is used to obtain them.monetary policy; output gaps; real-time data

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?

We present a simple model of the macroeconomy that includes a role for an asset-price bubble, and derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policy-makers. The first policy-maker, a sceptic, does not attempt to forecast the future possible paths for the asset-price bubble when setting policy. The second policy-maker, an activist, takes into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble when setting policy. We examine the optimal policy recommendations of these two policy-makers across a range of plausible assumptions about the bubble. We show that the optimal monetary policy recommendations of the activist depend on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. There are some circumstances in which the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than that of the sceptic, while in other cases, the appropriate recommendation is to be looser than the sceptic. Other things equal, the case for ‘leaning against’ a bubble with monetary policy is stronger the lower the probability of the bubble bursting of its own accord, the larger the efficiency losses associated with big bubbles, and the higher the assumed impact of monetary policy on the bubble process.optimal monetary policy; asset-price bubble

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendations depend sensitively on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. In some circumstances the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than the skeptic, but in others the appropriate recommendation is to be looser. Our results highlight the stringent informational requirements inherent in an activist policy approach to handling asset-price bubbles

A New Approach to Evidence Synthesis in Traumatic Brain Injury: A Living Systematic Review.

Living systematic reviews (LSRs) are online summaries of health care research that are updated as new research becomes available. This new development in evidence synthesis is being trialled as part of the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) project. We will develop and sustain an international TBI knowledge community that maintains up-to-date, high quality LSRs of the current state of knowledge in the most important questions in TBI. Automatic search updates will be run three-monthly, and newly identified studies incorporated into the review. Review teams will seek to publish journal updates at regular intervals, with abridged updates available more frequently online. Future project stages include the integration of LSR and other study findings into "living" clinical practice guidance. It is hoped these efforts will go some way to bridging current temporal disconnects between evidence, guidelines, and practice in TBI

Coral Reef Monitoring by Scuba Divers Using Underwater Photogrammetry and Geodetic Surveying

Underwater photogrammetry is increasingly being used by marine ecologists because of its ability to produce accurate, spatially detailed, non-destructive measurements of benthic communities, coupled with affordability and ease of use. However, independent quality control, rigorous imaging system set-up, optimal geometry design and a strict modeling of the imaging process are essential to achieving a high degree of measurable accuracy and resolution. If a proper photogrammetric approach that enables the formal description of the propagation of measurement error and modeling uncertainties is not undertaken, statements regarding the statistical significance of the results are limited. In this paper, we tackle these critical topics, based on the experience gained in the Moorea Island Digital Ecosystem Avatar (IDEA) project, where we have developed a rigorous underwater photogrammetric pipeline for coral reef monitoring and change detection. Here, we discuss the need for a permanent, underwater geodetic network, which serves to define a temporally stable reference datum and a check for the time series of photogrammetrically derived three-dimensional (3D) models of the reef structure. We present a methodology to evaluate the suitability of several underwater camera systems for photogrammetric and multi-temporal monitoring purposes and stress the importance of camera network geometry to minimize the deformations of photogrammetrically derived 3D reef models. Finally, we incorporate the measurement and modeling uncertainties of the full photogrammetric process into a simple and flexible framework for detecting statistically significant changes among a time series of models

Apolipoprotein E4 Polymorphism and Outcomes from Traumatic Brain Injury : A Living Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The mortality of traumatic brain injury (TBI) has been largely static despite advances in monitoring and imaging techniques. Substantial variance exists in outcome, not fully accounted for by baseline characteristics or injury severity, and genetic factors likely play a role in this variance. The aims of this systematic review were to examine the evidence for a link between the apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) polymorphism and TBI outcomes and where possible, to quantify the effect size via meta-analysis. We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, and gray literature in December 2017. We included studies of APOE genotype in relation to functional adult TBI outcomes. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies Risk of Bias Assessment Instrument and the prognostic studies adaptation of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool. In addition, we contacted investigators and included an additional 160 patients whose data had not been made available for previous analyses, giving a total sample size of 2593 patients. Meta-analysis demonstrated higher odds of a favorable outcome following TBI in those not possessing an ApoE e4 allele compared with e4 carriers and homozygotes (odds ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.84; p = 0.02). The influence of APOE4 on neuropsychological functioning following TBI remained uncertain, with multiple conflicting studies. We conclude that the ApoE e4 allele confers a small risk of poor outcome following TBI, with analysis by TBI severity not possible based on the currently available published data. Further research into the long-term neuropsychological impact and risk of dementia is warranted.Peer reviewe

Exploring attitudes to edgy urban destinations: the case of Deptford, London

The role of tourists and tourism in urban development is not fully understood. Research has focused on tourism districts within city centres, but less is known about tourism in peripheral, less affluent urban districts. These areas can appeal to visitors as edgy alternatives to mainstream destinations. This study establishes who is interested in visiting and why, and it explores the underlying rationale for negative attitudes. The aims are addressed by an in-depth analysis of Deptford in South East London. This area is a relatively deprived part of a world city, albeit one that has long been earmarked as London's next cool district. The study uses a mix of different sources to analyse the case. Responses to a New York Times article on Deptford are analysed and the attitudes of actual visitors and key stakeholders are explored. The discussion includes an examination of different interpretations and attitudes towards the notion of edginess. Edginess is deemed attractive by certain audiences; something linked to a reverence for working-class life in the arts. The study concludes that, whilst edginess is a noted characteristic, what people appreciate about Deptford is its ‘distinctive ordinariness’ – its contrast with more polished and contrived urban districts

Genetic Influences on Patient-Oriented Outcomes in Traumatic Brain Injury : A Living Systematic Review of Non-Apolipoprotein E Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms

There is a growing literature on the impact of genetic variation on outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Whereas a substantial proportion of these publications have focused on the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene, several have explored the influence of other polymorphisms. We undertook a systematic review of the impact of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in non-apolipoprotein E (non-APOE) genes associated with patient outcomes in adult TBI). We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, and gray literature from inception to the beginning of August 2017 for studies of genetic variance in relation to patient outcomes in adult TBI. Sixty-eight articles were deemed eligible for inclusion into the systematic review. The SNPs described were in the following categories: neurotransmitter (NT) in 23, cytokine in nine, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in 12, mitochondrial genes in three, and miscellaneous SNPs in 21. All studies were based on small patient cohorts and suffered from potential bias. A range of SNPs associated with genes coding for monoamine NTs, BDNF, cytokines, and mitochondrial proteins have been reported to be associated with variation in global, neuropsychiatric, and behavioral outcomes. An analysis of the tissue, cellular, and subcellular location of the genes that harbored the SNPs studied showed that they could be clustered into blood-brain barrier associated, neuroprotective/regulatory, and neuropsychiatric/degenerative groups. Several small studies report that various NT, cytokine, and BDNF-related SNPs are associated with variations in global outcome at 6-12 months post-TBI. The association of these SNPs with neuropsychiatric and behavioral outcomes is less clear. A definitive assessment of role and effect size of genetic variation in these genes on outcome remains uncertain, but could be clarified by an adequately powered genome-wide association study with appropriate recording of outcomes.Peer reviewe

Contemporary geomorphological activity throughout the proglacial area of an alpine catchment

Quantification of contemporary geomorphological activity is a fundamental prerequisite for predicting the effects of future earth surface process and landscape development changes. However, there is a lack of high-resolution spatial and temporal data on geomorphological activity within alpine catchments, which are especially sensitive to climate change, human impacts and which are amongst the most dynamic landscapes on Earth. This study used data from repeated laser scanning to identify and quantify the distribution of contemporary sediment sources and the intensity of geomorphological activity within the lower part of a glaciated alpine catchment; Ödenwinkelkees, central Austria. Spatially, geomorphological activity was discriminated by substrate class. Activity decreased in both areal extent and intensity with distance from the glacier, becoming progressively more restricted to the fluvially-dominated valley floor. Temporally, geomorphological activity was identified on annual, seasonal, weekly and daily timescales. Activity became more extensive with increasing study duration but more intense over shorter timescales, thereby demonstrating the importance of temporary storage of sediment within the catchment. The mean volume of material moved within the proglacial zone was 4400m.yr, which suggests a net surface lowering of 34mm.yr in this part of the catchment. We extrapolate a minimum of 4.8mm.yr net surface lowering across the whole catchment. These surface lowering values are approximately twice those calculated elsewhere from contemporary measurements of suspended sediment flux, and of rates calculated from the geological record, perhaps because we measure total geomorphological activity within the catchment rather than overall efflux of material. Repeated geomorphological surveying therefore appears to mitigate the problems of hydrological studies underestimating sediment fluxes on decadal-annual time-scales. Further development of the approach outlined in this study will enable the quantification of geomorphological activity, alpine terrain stability and persistence of landforms