Self-starting cumulative sum harvest control rule (SS-CUSUM-HCR) for status-quo management of data-limited fisheries

We demonstrate a harvest control rule based on the self-starting cumulative sum (SS-CUSUM) control chart that can maintain a fish stock at its starting (status-quo) level. The SS-CUSUM is an indicator monitoring tool commonly used in quality control engineering and does not require a long time series or predefined reference point for detecting temporal trends. The reference points in SS-CUSUM are calibrated in the form of running means that are updated on an ongoing basis when new observations become available. The SS-CUSUM can be initiated with as few as two observations in the time series and can be applied long before many other methods, soon after initial data become available. A wide range of stock indicators can be monitored, but in this study, we demonstrate the method using an equally weighted sum of two indicators: a recruitment indicator and a large fish indicator from a simulated fishery. We assume that no life history data are available other than 2 years of both indicator data and current harvest levels when the SS-CUSUM initiates. The signals generated from SS-CUSUM trigger a harvest control rule (SS-CUSUM-HCR), where the shift that occurs in the indicator time series is computed and is used as an adjustment factor for updating the total allowable catch. Our study shows that the SS-CUSUM-HCR can maintain the fish stock at its starting status-quo level (even for overfished initial states) but has limited scope if the fishery is already in an undesirable state such as a stock collapse. We discuss how the SS-CUSUM approach could be adapted to move beyond a status-quo management strategy, if additional information on the desirable state of the fishery is available. </jats:p

Combining support vector machines and segmentation algorithms for efficient anomaly detection: a petroleum industry application

Proceedings of: International Joint Conference SOCO’14-CISIS’14-ICEUTE’14, Bilbao, Spain, June 25th–27th, 2014, ProceedingsAnomaly detection is the problem of finding patterns in data that do not conform to expected behavior. Similarly, when patterns are numerically distant from the rest of sample, anomalies are indicated as outliers. Anomaly detection had recently attracted the attention of the research community for real-world applications. The petroleum industry is one of the application contexts where these problems are present. The correct detection of such types of unusual information empowers the decision maker with the capacity to act on the system in order to correctly avoid, correct, or react to the situations associated with them. In that sense, heavy extraction machines for pumping and generation operations like turbomachines are intensively monitored by hundreds of sensors each that send measurements with a high frequency for damage prevention. For dealing with this and with the lack of labeled data, in this paper we propose a combination of a fast and high quality segmentation algorithm with a one-class support vector machine approach for efficient anomaly detection in turbomachines. As result we perform empirical studies comparing our approach to other methods applied to benchmark problems and a real-life application related to oil platform turbomachinery anomaly detection.This work was partially funded by CNPq BJT Project 407851/2012-7 and CNPq PVE Project 314017/2013-

Detection of inconsistencies in geospatial data with geostatistics

Almost every researcher has come through observations that “drift” from the rest of the sample, suggesting some inconsistency. The aim of this paper is to propose a new inconsistent data detection method for continuous geospatial data based in Geostatistics, independently from the generative cause (measuring and execution errors and inherent variability data). The choice of Geostatistics is based in its ideal characteristics, as avoiding systematic errors, for example. The importance of a new inconsistent detection method proposal is in the fact that some existing methods used in geospatial data consider theoretical assumptions hardly attended. Equally, the choice of the data set is related to the importance of the LiDAR technology (Light Detection and Ranging) in the production of Digital Elevation Models (DEM). Thus, with the new methodology it was possible to detect and map discrepant data. Comparing it to a much utilized detections method, BoxPlot, the importance and functionality of the new method was verified, since the BoxPlot did not detect any data classified as discrepant. The proposed method pointed that, in average, 1,2% of the data of possible regionalized inferior outliers and, in average, 1,4% of possible regionalized superior outliers, in relation to the set of data used in the study

Statistical Outliers and Dragon-Kings as Bose-Condensed Droplets

A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns, city-size distributions (e.g., Paris in France and London in the UK), in material failure, epileptic seizure intensities, and other systems. Within our theory, the large outliers are interpreted as droplets of Bose-Einstein condensate: the appearance of outliers is a natural consequence of the occurrence of Bose-Einstein condensation controlled by the relative degree of attraction, or utility, of the largest entities. For large populations, Zipf's law is recovered (except for the dragon-king outliers). The theory thus provides a parsimonious description of the possible coexistence of a power law distribution of event sizes (Zipf's law) and dragon-king outliers.Comment: Latex file, 16 pages, 1 figur

Comparison of measuring devices

Accuracy, Measurement, Affine transformation, Regression,