Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO2 impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion

Earthworms do not increase greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O) in an ecotron experiment simulating a three-crop rotation system

International audienceEarthworms are known to stimulate soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but the majority of previous studies have used simplified model systems or lacked continuous high-frequency measurements. To address this, we conducted a 2-year study using large lysimeters (5 m 2 area and 1.5 m soil depth) in an ecotron facility, continuously measuring ecosystem-level CO 2 , N 2 O, and H 2 O fluxes. We investigated the impact of endogeic and anecic earthworms on GHG emissions and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) in a simulated agricultural setting. Although we observed transient stimulations of carbon fluxes in the presence of earthworms, cumulative fluxes over the study indicated no significant increase in CO 2 emissions. Endogeic earthworms reduced N 2 O emissions during the wheat culture (-44.6%), but this effect was not sustained throughout the experiment. No consistent effects on ecosystem evapotranspiration or WUE were found. Our study suggests that earthworms do not significantly contribute to GHG emissions over a two-year period in experimental conditions that mimic an agricultural setting. These findings highlight the need for realistic experiments and continuous GHG measurements