Partner choice correlates with fine scale kin structuring in the paper wasp Polistes dominula

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.Cooperation among kin is common in animal societies. Kin groups may form by individuals directly discriminating relatives based on kin recognition cues, or form passively through natal philopatry and limited dispersal. We describe the genetic landscape for a primitively eusocial wasp, Polistes dominula, and ask whether individuals choose cooperative partners that are nearby and/or that are genetic relatives. Firstly, we genotyped an entire sub-population of 1361 wasps and found genetic structuring on an extremely fine scale: the probability of finding genetic relatives decreases exponentially within just a few meters of an individual’s nest. At the same time, however, we found a lack of genetic structuring between natural nest aggregations within the population. Secondly, in a separate dataset where ~2000 wasps were genotyped, we show that wasps forced experimentally to make a new nest choice tended to choose new nests near to their original nests, and that these nests tended to contain some full sisters. However, a significant fraction of wasps chose nests that did not contain sisters, despite sisters being present in nearby nests. Although we cannot rule out a role for direct kin recognition or natal nest-mate recognition, our data suggest that kin groups may form via a philopatric rule-of-thumb, whereby wasps simply select groups and nesting sites that are nearby. The result is that most subordinate helpers obtain indirect fitness benefits by breeding cooperatively.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)European Union Horizon 2020Leverhulme Trus

Evolution of kinklike fluctuations associated with ion pickup within reconnection outflows in the Earth's magnetotail

Magnetic reconnection (MR) in Earth's magnetotail is usually followed by a systemwide redistribution of explosively released kinetic and thermal energy. Recently, multispacecraft observations from the THEMIS mission were used to study localized explosions associated with MR in the magnetotail so as to understand subsequent Earthward propagation of MR outbursts during substorms. Here we investigate plasma and magnetic field fluctuations/structures associated with MR exhaust and ion-ion kink mode instability during a well documented MR event. Generation, evolution and fading of kinklike oscillations are followed over a distance of 70 000 km from the reconnection site in the midmagnetotail to the more dipolar region near the Earth. We have found that the kink oscillations driven by different ion populations within the outflow region can be at least 25 000 km from the reconnection site.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Animal behaviour: task differentiation by personality in spider groups

Dispatch: In social animals, group efficiency is often assumed to increase with task differentiation, but this requires that individuals are better than generalists at the task they specialize in. A new study finds that individual Anelosimus studiosus spiders do predominantly perform the task they excel at, in line with their individual personality type, when they are placed in groups

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2°C

Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age

Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

We estimate a median global sea level rise up to 52 cm (25–87 cm, 5th–95th percentile) and up to 63 cm (27−112 cm, 5th—95th percentile) for a temperature rise of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C by 2100 respectively. We also estimate global annual flood costs under these scenarios and find the difference of 11 cm global sea level rise in 2100 could result in additional losses of US$1.4 trillion per year (0.25$ 14 trillion per year and US$ 27 trillion per year for global sea level rise of 86 cm (median) and 180 cm (95th percentile), reaching 2.8% of global GDP in 2100. Upper middle income countries are projected to experience the largest increase in annual flood costs (up to 8% GDP) with a large proportion attributed to China. High income countries have lower projected flood costs, in part due to their high present-day protection standards. Adaptation could potentially reduce sea level induced flood costs by a factor of 10. Failing to achieve the global mean temperature targets of 1.5 °C or 2 °C will lead to greater damage and higher levels of coastal flood risk worldwide

Surface velocity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS): assessment of interior velocities derived from satellite data by GPS

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography of interior Greenland exist, but their accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep-drilling site. A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers an area of 35 km by 40 km, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a^−1 within a central flow band with longitudinal and transverse strain rates on the order of 10−4 a^−1 and increasing by an order of magnitude in the shear margins. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model and a list of satellite-derived surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias in and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and a precision of ∼0.5 m a^−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-derived products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in NEGIS when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography

Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China

The association between solar activity and Asian monsoon (AM) remains unclear. Here we evaluate the possible connection between them based on a precisely-dated, high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southwest China during the past 4.2 thousand years (ka). Without being adjusted chronologically to the solar signal, our record shows a distinct peak-to-peak correlation with cosmogenic nuclide 14C, total solar irradiance (TSI) and sunspot number (SN) at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Further cross-wavelet analyses between our calcite δ18O and atmospheric 14C show statistically strong coherence at three typical periodicities of ~80, 200 and 340 years, suggesting important roles of solar activities in modulating AM changes at those timescales. Our result has further indicated a better correlation between our calcite δ18O record and atmospheric 14C than between our record and TSI. This better correlation may imply that the Sun–monsoon connection is dominated most likely by cosmic rays and oceanic circulation (both associated to atmospheric 14C), instead of the direct solar heating (TSI)

Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A

Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest (north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m (alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Highly temporally resolved response to seasonal surface melt of the Zachariae and 79N outlet glaciers in northeast Greenland

The seasonal response to surface melting of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream outlets, Zachariae and 79N, is investigated using new highly temporally resolved surface velocity maps for 2016 combined with numerical modeling. The seasonal speedup at 79N of 0.15 km/yr is suggested to be driven by a decrease in effective basal pressure induced by surface melting, whereas for Zachariae its 0.11 km/yr seasonal speedup correlates equally well with the breakup of its large ice mélange. We investigate the influence 76 km long floating tongue at 79N, finding it provides little resistance and that most of it could be lost without impacting the dynamics of the area. Furthermore, we show that reducing the slipperiness along the tongue-wall interfaces produces a velocity change spatially inconsistent with the observed seasonal speedup. Finally, we find that subglacial sticky spots such as bedrock bumps play a negligible role in the large-scale response to a seasonally enhanced basal slipperiness of the region