The Potential For UK Portfolio Investors To Finance Sustainable Tropical Forestry

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Refining real-time predictions of Vibrio vulnificus concentrations in a tropical urban estuary by incorporating dissolved organic matter dynamics

The south shore of Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi is one of the most visited coastal tourism areas in the United States with some of the highest instances of recreational waterborne disease. A population of the pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus lives in the estuarine Ala Wai Canal in Honolulu which surrounds the heavily populated tourism center of Waikīkī. We developed a statistical model to predict V. vulnificus dynamics in this system using environmental measurements from moored oceanographic and atmospheric sensors in real time. During a year-long investigation, we analyzed water from 9 sampling events at 3 depths and 8 sites along the canal (n = 213) for 36 biogeochemical variables and V. vulnificus concentration using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of the hemolysin A gene (vvhA). The best multiple linear regression model of V. vulnificus concentration, explaining 80% of variation, included only six predictors: 5-day average rainfall preceding water sampling, daily maximum air temperature, water temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and two metrics of humic dissolved organic matter (DOM). We show how real-time predictions of V. vulnificus concentration can be made using these models applied to the time series of water quality measurements from the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) as well as the PacIOOS plume model based on the Waikīkī Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) products. These applications highlight the importance of including DOM variables in predictive modeling of V. vulnificus and the influence of rain events in elevating nearshore concentrations of V. vulnificus. Long-term climate model projections of locally downscaled monthly rainfall and air temperature were used to predict an overall increase in V. vulnificus concentration of approximately 2- to 3-fold by 2100. Improving these predictive models of microbial populations is critical for management of waterborne pathogen risk exposure, particularly in the wake of a changing global climate

A review of implant provision for hypodontia patients within a Scottish referral centre

Background: Implant treatment to replace congenitally missing teeth often involves multidisciplinary input in a secondary care environment. High quality patient care requires an in-depth knowledge of treatment requirements. Aim: This service review aimed to determine treatment needs, efficiency of service and outcomes achieved in hypodontia patients. It also aimed to determine any specific difficulties encountered in service provision, and suggest methods to overcome these. Methods: Hypodontia patients in the Unit of Periodontics of the Scottish referral centre under consideration, who had implant placement and fixed restoration, or review completed over a 31 month period, were included. A standardised data collection form was developed and completed with reference to the patient's clinical record. Information was collected with regard to: the indication for implant treatment and its extent; the need for, complexity and duration of orthodontic treatment; the need for bone grafting and the techniques employed and indicators of implant success. Conclusion: Implant survival and success rates were high for those patients reviewed. Incidence of biological complications compared very favourably with the literature

Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice

The world is rapidly changing and the future is uncertain, yet until recently the dominant assumption of the local passenger transport community has been that the existing modal landscape of cars, buses and taxis will remain much as it is now. Such a view is now shifting however, with decision makers now appreciating the need to understand the implications of potentially radical changes in the technological, political, economic, social and environmental spheres. Accordingly, in August 2015 the Public Transport 2045 study was commissioned to consider how different local public transport futures might affect society over the next 30-years, and at how governments might best respond. The multi-phase study was based on individual in-depth interviews with 50 senior local passenger transport operators, government officials, lobbyists and experts from New Zealand and around the world; and four validation workshops with 28 sector stakeholders. The data was analysed using mostly pre-determined themes from which four scenarios were constructed and then validated. The implications are that the transport system is about to transition to a system of ‘shared mobility’; public transport will need to evolve to stay relevant but will remain important in any scenario; and the role of Government will be vital in overseeing the transition to the shared mobility era. These lessons are now being used to inform transport and broader policy decisions across New Zealand. Overall, the study is the first to apply such a global and qualitatively rich dataset to view the long-term future passenger transport system as a whole

Effect of chronotype on emotional processing and risk taking

This is an original manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Chronobiology International on 30 March 2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.3109/07420528.2016.1146739© 2016 Taylor & Francis. There is increasing evidence to suggest that late chronotypes are at increased risk for depression. The putative psychological mechanisms underpinning this risk, however, have not been fully explored. The aim of the present study was to examine whether, similar to acutely depressed patients and other "at risk" groups, late chronotype individuals display biases in tasks assaying emotional face recognition, emotional categorisation, recognition and recall and attention. Late chronotype was associated with increased recognition of sad facial expressions, greater recall and reduced latency to correctly recognise previously presented negative personality trait words and reduced allocation of attentional resources to happy faces. The current results indicate that certain negative biases in emotional processing are present in late chronotypes and may, in part, mediate the vulnerability of these individuals to depression. Prospective studies are needed to establish whether the cognitive vulnerabilities reported here predict subsequent depression

Mineralization, alteration assemblages, geochemistry and stable isotopes of the intermediate-sulfidation epithermal Kylo Deposit, Drake Goldfield, North-Eastern NSW, Australia: evidence for a significant magmatic fluid component

The intermediate-sulfidation epithermal Kylo deposit is part of the Drake Goldfield of north-eastern NSW. The mineralization is gold-dominant with minor silver and significant levels of zinc, copper and lead. Kylo has a resource of 2.298 Mt @ 1.23 g/T Au and 1.35 g/T Ag. Mineralization mainly occurs in the form of vein stockworks. Petrographic and SEM analysis shows that there are at least three mineralization events, with Au mineralization strongly associated with at least a deposit-scale alteration event. Quantitative XRD analysis shows a positive correlation between Au-mineralization and argillic-phyllic alteration. Electrum was found as an inclusion in massive sphalerite in the main mineralization stage. Correlation analysis for the assay data indicates that Au has a strong relation with Ag and Pb. Petrographic and geochemical analysis has identified three lithologies: rhyolite, rhyodacite/dacite and andesite, with Au mineralization more associated with the rhyodacites, while at deeper levels some of the andesites also show a relatively strong correlation with Au. Strontium shows a significant strong depletion, due to the intense and pervasive alteration at Kylo. The andesitic volcanics show moderate LREE enrichment with small negative Eu anomalies, and relative depletion in Nb, Ta and Ti, indicating an island arc tectonic setting. The carbon and oxygen isotopes of late-stage vein carbonates suggest that the late-stage fluid was mostly derived from a magmatic source, but with a minor contribution from low-temperature fluids intimately associated with alteration processes. The sulfur isotopes indicate that the sulfide mineralization had a magmatic sulfur source

A data support infrastructure for Clean Development Mechanism forestry implementation: an inventory perspective from Cameroon

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry project development requires highly multi-disciplinary and multiple-source information that can be complex, cumbersome and costly to acquire. Yet developing countries in which CDM projects are created and implemented are often data poor environments and unable to meet such complex information requirements. Using Cameroon as an example, the present paper explores the structure of an enabling host country data support infrastructure for CDM forestry implementation, and also assesses the supply potential of current forestry information. Results include a conceptual data model of CDM project data needs; the list of meso- and macro-level data and information requirements (Demand analysis); and an inventory of relevant data available in Cameroon (Supply analysis). From a comparison of demand and supply, we confirm that data availability and the relevant infrastructure for data or information generation is inadequate for supporting carbon forestry at the micro, meso and macro-levels in Cameroon. The results suggest that current CDM afforestation and reforestation information demands are almost impenetrable for local communities in host countries and pose a number of cross-scale barriers to project adoption. More importantly, we identify proactive regulatory, institutional and capacity building policy strategies for forest data management improvements that could enhance biosphere carbon management uptake in poor countries. CDM forestry information research needs are also highlighted

Global variation in the cost of increasing ecosystem carbon

Slowing the reduction, or increasing the accumulation, of organic carbon stored in biomass and soils has been suggested as a potentially rapid and cost-effective method to reduce the rate of atmospheric carbon increase(1). The costs of mitigating climate change by increasing ecosystem carbon relative to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario has been quantified in numerous studies, but results have been contradictory, as both methodological issues and substance differences cause variability(2). Here we show, based on 77 standardized face-to-face interviews of local experts with the best possible knowledge of local land-use economics and sociopolitical context in ten landscapes around the globe, that the estimated cost of increasing ecosystem carbon varied vastly and was perceived to be 16-27 times cheaper in two Indonesian landscapes dominated by peatlands compared with the average of the eight other landscapes. Hence, if reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and other land-use mitigation efforts are to be distributed evenly across forested countries, for example, for the sake of international equity, their overall effectiveness would be dramatically lower than for a cost-minimizing distribution.Peer reviewe

Assessing the role of economic instruments in a policy mix for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision: a review of some methodological challenges

In this paper we review a number of methodological challenges of evaluating and designing economic instruments aimed at biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision in the context of an existing policy mix. In the context of the EU 2010 goal of halting biodiversity loss, researchers have been called upon to evaluate the role of economic instruments for cost-effective decision-making, as well as non-market methods to assess their benefits. We argue that cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and non-market valuation (NMV) methods are necessary, but not sufficient, approaches to assessing the role of economic instruments in a policy mix. We review the principles of “social-ecological-systems”(SES) (Ostrom et al. 2007) and discuss how SES can complement economic cost and benefit assessment methods, in particular in policy design research. To illustrate our conceptual comparison of assessment methodologies, we look at two examples of economic instruments at different government levels – payments for ecosystem services (PES) at farm level and ecological fiscal transfers to municipal /county government. What conceptual problems are introduced when evaluating policies in an instrument mix? How can the SES framework complement CEA and NMV in policy assessment and design? We draw on experiences from Brazil and Costa Rica to exemplify these questions. We conclude with some research questions