Urban Cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for Reactive Vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea Bissau

Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic

The habitability of a stagnant-lid Earth

Plate tectonics is a fundamental component for the habitability of the Earth. Yet whether it is a recurrent feature of terrestrial bodies orbiting other stars or unique to the Earth is unknown. The stagnant lid may rather be the most common tectonic expression on such bodies. To understand whether a stagnant-lid planet can be habitable, i.e. host liquid water at its surface, we model the thermal evolution of the mantle, volcanic outgassing of H$_2$O and CO$_2$, and resulting climate of an Earth-like planet lacking plate tectonics. We used a 1D model of parameterized convection to simulate the evolution of melt generation and the build-up of an atmosphere of H$_2$O and CO$_2$ over 4.5 Gyr. We then employed a 1D radiative-convective atmosphere model to calculate the global mean atmospheric temperature and the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). The evolution of the interior is characterized by the initial production of a large amount of partial melt accompanied by a rapid outgassing of H$_2$O and CO$_2$. At 1 au, the obtained temperatures generally allow for liquid water on the surface nearly over the entire evolution. While the outer edge of the HZ is mostly influenced by the amount of outgassed CO$_2$, the inner edge presents a more complex behaviour that is dependent on the partial pressures of both gases. At 1 au, the stagnant-lid planet considered would be regarded as habitable. The width of the HZ at the end of the evolution, albeit influenced by the amount of outgassed CO$_2$, can vary in a non-monotonic way depending on the extent of the outgassed H$_2$O reservoir. Our results suggest that stagnant-lid planets can be habitable over geological timescales and that joint modelling of interior evolution, volcanic outgassing, and accompanying climate is necessary to robustly characterize planetary habitability

Ecosystem engineering by hummock-building earthworms in seasonal wetlands of eastern South Africa: Insights into the mechanics of biomorphodynamic feedbacks in wetland ecosystems

This paper resolves the origin of clay hummock micro-topography in seasonal wetlands of the Drakensberg Foothills, providing a review and appraisal of previously-suggested mechanisms of hummock formation in the context of new field and laboratory data. Field surveys revealed neo-formation of clay hummocks in a river channel that had been abandoned in c.1984. Fresh earthworm castings were located atop hummocks protruding from inundated abandoned channel margins. Earthworm castings, and sediment cores taken in hummocks and adjacent hollows, were analysed for soil-adsorbed carbon and nitrogen using an HCN analyser, and for 210Pb activity using alpha-geochronology. 210Pb activity profiles suggest relative enrichment of the isotope in hummocks, and relative depletion in adjacent hollows. Earthworm castings are characterised by very high 210Pb activity, as well as high C and N contents. Hummocks have significantly higher C and N contents than adjacent hollows. Results suggest that it is the foraging activity of earthworms in litter-rich seasonal wetland hollows, and repeated excretion of castings atop adjacent hummocks, that is responsible for the elemental enrichment observed. The paper presents a conceptual model of hummock formation in wetlands through interactions between hydrogeomorphology and earthworm activity, and illustrates a mechanism of biogeomorphic inheritance through which ordered patterns of preferential flow can emerge in ecosystems. Further implications of hummock formation and nodal accumulation of nutrients are considered in relation to wetland resilience and regulatory ecosystem service provision

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models

The language of intervention: A review of concepts and terminology in wetland ecosystem repair

As programmes and projects aimed at addressing wetland degradation gain momentum in South Africa, it is critical that related ideas are communicated among and between researchers, practitioners, management agencies, land-owners and the general public in a common language. This paper explores the meaning of ‘restoration’ and ‘rehabilitation’; terms that we suggest are key to understanding and advancing South Africa’s efforts to address wetland degradation. In its essence, the paper is a critical review of wetland ecosystem repair concepts and terminology from local and international literature. The major products of the paper are proposed definitions of the terms ‘restoration’ and ‘rehabilitation’ in a South African wetland science and management context. Although the terms are often used interchangeably, we argue that their absolute distinction will allow scientists and practitioners to better understand what it is that ecosystem repair interventions aim to achieve. We suggest that the terms be distinguished on the basis of what could be considered their respective ecological starting points, where ‘restoration’ applies to part of a system or a system in its entirety that has been completely and permanently, but not irreparably altered, and essentially removed from the landscape, and ‘rehabilitation’ applies to part of a system or a system in its entirety that has not been removed from the landscape through complete and permanent alteration, but is in a degraded state. Thus, ‘wetland restoration’ is defined as the process of reinstating natural ecological driving forces within part or the whole of a completely and permanently altered wetland to recover former or desired ecosystem structure, function, biotic composition and ecosystem services, while ‘wetland rehabilitation’ is defined as the process of reinstating natural ecological driving forces within part or the whole of a degraded wetland to recover former or desired ecosystem structure, function, biotic composition and ecosystem services

Reading Videogames as (authorless) Literature

This article presents the outcomes of research, funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council in England and informed by work in the fields of new literacy research, gaming studies and the socio-cultural framing of education, for which the videogame L.A. Noire (Rockstar Games, 2011) was studied within the orthodox framing of the English Literature curriculum at A Level (pre-University) and Undergraduate (degree level). There is a plethora of published research into the kinds of literacy practices evident in videogame play, virtual world engagement and related forms of digital reading and writing (Gee, 2003; Juul, 2005; Merchant, Gillen, Marsh and Davies, 2012; Apperley and Walsh, 2012; Bazalgette and Buckingham, 2012) as well as the implications of such for home / school learning (Dowdall, 2006; Jenkins, 2006; Potter, 2012) and for teachers’ own digital lives (Graham, 2012). Such studies have tended to focus on younger children and this research is also distinct from such work in the field in its exploration of the potential for certain kinds of videogame to be understood as 'digital transformations' of conventional ‘schooled’ literature. The outcomes of this project raise implications of such a conception for a further implementation of a ‘reframed’ literacy (Marsh, 2007) within the contemporary curriculum of a traditional and conservative ‘subject’. A mixed methods approach was adopted. Firstly, students contributing to a gamplay blog requiring them to discuss their in-game experience through the ‘language game’ of English Literature, culminating in answering a question constructed with the idioms of the subject’s set text ‘final examination’. Secondly, students taught their teachers to play L.A. Noire, with free choice over the context for this collaboration. Thirdly, participants returned to traditional roles in order to work through a set of study materials provided, designed to reproduce the conventions of the ‘study guide’ for literature education. Interviews were conducted after each phase and the outcomes informed a redrafting of the study materials which are now available online for teachers – this being the ‘practical’ outcome of the research (Berger and McDougall, 2012). In the act of inserting the study of L.A. Noire into the English Literature curriculum as currently framed, this research moves, through a practical ‘implementation’ beyond longstanding debates around narratology and ludology (Frasca, 2003; Juul, 2005) in the field of game studies (Leaning, 2012) through a direct connection to new literacy studies and raises epistemological questions about ‘subject identity’, informed by Bernstein (1996) and Bourdieu (1986) and the implications for digital transformations of texts for both ideas about cultural value in schooled literacy (Kendall and McDougall, 2011) and the politics of ‘expertise’ in pedagogic relations (Ranciere, 2009, Bennett, Kendall and McDougall, 2012a)

Mantle redox state drives outgassing chemistry and atmospheric composition of rocky planets

Volcanic degassing of planetary interiors has important implications for their corresponding atmospheres. The oxidation state of rocky interiors affects the volatile partitioning during mantle melting and subsequent volatile speciation near the surface. Here we show that the mantle redox state is central to the chemical composition of atmospheres while factors such as planetary mass, thermal state, and age mainly affect the degassing rate. We further demonstrate that mantle oxygen fugacity has an effect on atmospheric thickness and that volcanic degassing is most efficient for planets between 2 and 4 Earth masses. We show that outgassing of reduced systems is dominated by strongly reduced gases such as H2, with only smaller fractions of moderately reduced/oxidised gases (CO, H2O). Overall, a reducing scenario leads to a lower atmospheric pressure at the surface and to a larger atmospheric thickness compared to an oxidised system. Atmosphere predictions based on interior redox scenarios can be compared to observations of atmospheres of rocky exoplanets, potentially broadening our knowledge on the diversity of exoplanetary redox states

Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru

Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella dynamics is how age incidence patterns may be moulded by the spatial dynamics inherent to epidemic metapopulations. Here, we use a uniquely detailed dataset from Peru to explore the implications of this for the burden of CRS. Our results show that the risk of CRS may be particularly severe in small remote regions, a prediction at odds with expectations in the endemic situation, and with implications for the outcome of vaccination. This outcome results directly from the metapopulation context: specifically, extinction–re-colonization dynamics are crucial because they allow for significant leakage of susceptible individuals into the older age classes during inter-epidemic periods with the potential to increase CRS risk by as much as fivefold