768 research outputs found
Detectability of atmospheric features of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs
We investigate the detectability of atmospheric spectral features of
Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) around M dwarfs with the future
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We use a coupled 1D climate-chemistry-model
to simulate the influence of a range of observed and modelled M-dwarf spectra
on Earth-like planets. The simulated atmospheres served as input for the
calculation of the transmission spectra of the hypothetical planets, using a
line-by-line spectral radiative transfer model. To investigate the
spectroscopic detectability of absorption bands with JWST we further developed
a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) model and applied it to our transmission spectra.
High abundances of CH and HO in the atmosphere of Earth-like planets
around mid to late M dwarfs increase the detectability of the corresponding
spectral features compared to early M-dwarf planets. Increased temperatures in
the middle atmosphere of mid- to late-type M-dwarf planets expand the
atmosphere and further increase the detectability of absorption bands. To
detect CH, HO, and CO in the atmosphere of an Earth-like planet
around a mid to late M dwarf observing only one transit with JWST could be
enough up to a distance of 4 pc and less than ten transits up to a distance of
10 pc. As a consequence of saturation limits of JWST and less pronounced
absorption bands, the detection of spectral features of hypothetical Earth-like
planets around most early M dwarfs would require more than ten transits. We
identify 276 existing M dwarfs (including GJ 1132, TRAPPIST-1, GJ 1214, and LHS
1140) around which atmospheric absorption features of hypothetical Earth-like
planets could be detected by co-adding just a few transits. We show that using
transmission spectroscopy, JWST could provide enough precision to be able to
partly characterise the atmosphere of Earth-like TESS planets around mid to
late M dwarfs.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure
Urban Cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for Reactive Vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea Bissau
Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic
The extrasolar planet Gliese 581 d: a potentially habitable planet? (Corrigendum to arXiv:1009.5814)
We report here that the equation for H2O Rayleigh scattering was incorrectly
stated in the original paper [arXiv:1009.5814]. Instead of a quadratic
dependence on refractivity r, we accidentally quoted an r^4 dependence. Since
the correct form of the equation was implemented into the model, scientific
results are not affected.Comment: accepted to Astronomy&Astrophysic
Clouds in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. I. Climatic effects of multi-layered clouds for Earth-like planets and implications for habitable zones
The effects of multi-layered clouds in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets
orbiting different types of stars are studied. The radiative effects of cloud
particles are directly correlated with their wavelength-dependent optical
properties. Therefore the incident stellar spectra may play an important role
for the climatic effect of clouds. We discuss the influence of clouds with mean
properties measured in the Earth's atmosphere on the surface temperatures and
Bond albedos of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of main sequence
dwarf stars.Comment: accepted for publication in A&
'Just another vial…': a qualitative study to explore the acceptability and feasibility of routine blood-borne virus testing in an emergency department setting in the UK.
OBJECTIVES: Increased test uptake for HIV and viral hepatitis is fast becoming a health priority at both national and global levels. Late diagnosis of these infections remains a critical public health concern in the UK. Recommendations have been issued to expand blood-borne virus (BBV) testing in alternative settings. Emergency departments (EDs) offer a potentially important point of testing. This paper presents findings from a qualitative study which aimed to explore the acceptability and feasibility of a routine opt-out combined BBV testing intervention implemented at an inner London ED. METHODS: We conducted 22 semistructured interviews with patients and service providers in the ED over a 4-month period during the intervention pilot. A grounded analytical approach was employed to conduct thematic analysis of qualitative study data. RESULTS: Core interrelating thematic areas, identified and analytically developed in relation to test intervention implementation and experience, included the following: the remaking of routine test procedure; notions of responsibility in relation to status knowledge and test engagement; the opportunity and constraints of the ED as a site for testing; and the renegotiation of testing cultures within and beyond the clinic space. CONCLUSION: Study findings demonstrate how relational and spatial dynamics specific to the ED setting shape test meaning and engagement. We found acceptability of the test practice was articulated through narratives of situated responsibility, with the value of the test offset by perceptions of health need and justification of the test expense. Participant accounts indicate that the nontargeted approach of the test affords a productive disruption to 'at-risk' identities, yet they also reveal limits to the test intervention's 'normalising' effect. Evaluation of the intervention must attend to the situated dynamics of the test practice if opportunities of an opt-out BBV test procedure are to be fully realised. Findings also highlight the critical need to further evaluate post-test intervention practices and experiences
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Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates.
A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall
Noise and Nonlinearity in Measles Epidemics: Combining Mechanistic and Statistical Approaches to Population Modeling
We present and evaluate an approach to analyzing population dynamics data using semimechanistic models. These models incorporate reliable information on population structure and underlying dynamic mechanisms but use nonparametric surface-fitting methods to avoid unsupported assumptions about the precise form of rate equations. Using historical data on measles epidemics as a case study, we show how this approach can lead to better forecasts, better characterizations of the dynamics, and better understanding of the factors causing complex population dynamics relative to either mechanistic models or purely descriptive statistical time-series models. The semimechanistic models are found to have better forecasting accuracy than either of the model types used in previous analyses when tested on data not used to fit the models. The dynamics are characterized as being both nonlinear and noisy, and the global dynamics are clustered very tightly near the border of stability (dominant Lyapunov exponent λ < 0). However, locally in state space the dynamics oscillate between strong short-term stability and strong short-term chaos (i.e., between negative and positive local Lyapunov exponents). There is statistically significant evidence for short-term chaos in all data sets examined. Thus the nonlinearity in these systems is characterized by the variance over state space in local measures of chaos versus stability rather than a single summary measure of the overall dynamics as either chaotic or nonchaotic
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Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.
To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files.
This article is open access.A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction-recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations.US Department of Homeland Security
HSHQDC-12-C-00058
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
5R24HD047879
National Institutes of Health
5T32HD007163
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Healt
Sensitivity and Specificity of Multiple Kato-Katz Thick Smears and a Circulating Cathodic Antigen Test for Schistosoma mansoni Diagnosis Pre- and Post-repeated-Praziquantel Treatment
Two Kato-Katz thick smears (Kato-Katzs) from a single stool are currently recommended for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni infections to map areas for intervention. This ‘gold standard’ has low sensitivity at low infection intensities. The urine point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA) is potentially more sensitive but how accurately they detect S. mansoni after repeated praziquantel treatments, their suitability for measuring drug efficacy and their correlation with egg counts remain to be fully understood. We compared the accuracies of one to six Kato-Katzs and one POC-CCA for the diagnosis of S. mansoni in primary-school children who have received zero to ten praziquantel treatments. We determined the impact each diagnostic approach may have on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and drug-efficacy findings
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