Применение метода аналитических сетей для оптимизации процесса выбора стратегии развития пассажирского автотранспортного предприятия

В статье обозначена проблема снижения рентабельности пассажирских автотранспортных предприятий и связанные с этим сложности по реализации процедуры стратегического прогнозирования и управления предприятием. Обосновано использование метода аналитических сетей в модели поддержки принятия решений при управлении стратегией автотранспортного предприятия, представленной в работе [1], в качестве инструмента, позволяющего формализовать экспертные знания на основных этапах оценки и выбора проектов стратегического развития. Описаны основные шаги и приведены результаты расчета алгоритма метода аналитических сетей в рамках данной модели.The article outlines the problem of reducing the profitability of passenger motor transport enterprises and the associated difficulties in implementing the procedure of strategic forecasting and enterprise management. The use of the method of analytical networks in the model of decision support in managing the strategy of a trucking enterprise presented in [1] is substantiated as a tool that allows to formalize expert knowledge at the main stages of evaluation and selection of projects for strategic development. The main steps and calculations of the algorithm algorithm for analytical networks within the framework of this model are described

Monthly microclimate models in a managed boreal forest landscape

The majority of microclimate studies have been done in topographically complex landscapes to quantify and predict how near-ground temperatures vary as a function of terrain properties. However, in forests understory temperatures can be strongly influenced also by vegetation. We quantified the relative influence of vegetation features and physiography (topography and moisture-related variables) on understory temperatures in managed boreal forests in central Sweden. We used a multivariate regression approach to relate near-ground temperature of 203 loggers over the snow-free seasons in an area of ∼16,000 km2 to remotely sensed and on-site measured variables of forest structure and physiography. We produced climate grids of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures at 25m resolution by using only remotely sensed and mapped predictors. The quality and predictions of the models containing only remotely sensed predictors (MAP models) were compared with the models containing also on-site measured predictors (OS models). Our data suggest that during the warm season, where landscape microclimate variability is largest, canopy cover and basal area were the most important microclimatic drivers for both minimum and maximum temperatures, while physiographic drivers (mainly elevation) dominated maximum temperatures during autumn and early winter. The MAP models were able to reproduce findings from the OS models but tended to underestimate high and overestimate low temperatures. Including important microclimatic drivers, particularly soil moisture, that are yet lacking in a mapped form should improve the microclimate maps. Because of the dynamic nature of managed forests, continuous updates of mapped forest structure parameters are needed to accurately predict temperatures. Our results suggest that forest management (e.g. stand size, structure and composition) and conservation may play a key role in amplifying or impeding the effects of climate-forcing factors on near-ground temperature and may locally modify the impact of global warming.Peer reviewe

prevalence and lack of association with selected cardiovascular and metabolic disorders—findings of a multicenter population-based study

Background We determined the prevalence of anti-nuclear autoantibodies (ANAs) in the German adult population and examined the association between ANAs and cardiovascular and metabolic disorders. Methods We used data and blood samples from the pretest phases of the German National Cohort, obtained from six of the 18 study centers (n = 1199). All centers applied standardized instruments including face-to-face interviews, anthropometric measurements and collection of blood samples. Self-reported histories of diabetes mellitus, heart attack and elevated blood cholesterol and/or lipids were recorded. Height, weight and blood pressure were measured. ANAs were detected using a semi-automated system (AKLIDES®; Medipan GmbH, Dahlewitz, Germany). A positive ANA was defined as a titer ≥ 1:80. ANA were classified as weakly (1:80 or 1:160), moderately (1:320 or 1:640) or strongly (≥1:1280) positive. Specific autoantibodies against nuclear antigens were detected with second-step assays according to the ANA staining pattern. Associations between the assessed disorders and ANA positivity and pattern were examined using sex and age-adjusted mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results Thirty-three percent (95% confidence interval; 31–36%) of the 1196 participants (measurements could not be obtained from three samples) were ANA positive (titer ≥ 1:80). The proportions of weakly, moderately and strongly positive ANA were 29%, 3.3% and 1.3%, respectively. ANA positivity was more common among women than men across all titers (χ2, p = 0.03). ANA positivity, even when stratified according to height of titer or immunofluorescent pattern, was not associated with diabetes, elevated blood cholesterol and/or lipids, obesity or hypertension. Second-step autoantibody assays were positive in 41 of the 83 samples (49%) tested, with anti-DFS70 (n = 13) and anti-dsDNA (n = 7) being most frequent. These subgroups were too small to test for associations with the disorders assessed. Conclusions The prevalence of ANA positivity in the German general population was similar to values reported from other countries. Contrary to other studies, there was no association with selected self-reported and objectively measured cardiovascular and metabolic variables

Сложность алгоритмов криптографической системы Эль–Гамаля и ихэффективность

Objective. - Electrical remodeling as well as atrial contractile dysfunction after the conversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) to sinus rhythm (SR) are mainly caused by a reduction of the inward L-type Ca2+ current (ICaL). We investigated whether the expression of L-type Ca2+-channel subunits was reduced in atrial myocardium of AF patients. Methods. - Right atrial appendages were obtained from patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CAD, n = 35) or mitral valve surgery (MVD, n = 37). Seventeen of the CAD patients and 18 of the MVD patients were in chronic (>3 months) AF, whereas the others were in SR. The protein expression of the L-type Ca2+-channel subunits {alpha}1C and {beta}2 was quantified by western blot analysis. Furthermore, we measured the density of dihydropyridine (DHP)-binding sites of the L-type Ca2+ channel using 3H-PN220-100 as radioligand. Results. - Surprisingly, the {alpha}1C and the {beta}2-subunit expression was not altered in atrial myocardium of AF patients. Also, the DHP-binding site density was unchanged. Conclusion. - The protein expression of the L-type Ca2+-channel subunits {alpha}1C or {beta}2 is not reduced in atrial myocardium of AF patients. Therefore, the reduced ICaL might be due to downregulation of other accessory subunits ({alpha}2{delta}), expression of aberrant subunits, changes in channel trafficking or alterations in channel function