グンキモノガタリ ニオケル オンリョウ

担当教員: 久保勇(人文社会科学研究科)平成21年度(2009)教養コア科目授業C(芸術と文化)授業コード:G14C1510

Epidemic Network Modeling for the Prediction of the Transmission of Gonorrhea in Norway

The number of gonorrhea infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Norway continues to rise, and in 2017 the number of infections increased with more than 50 % relative to 2016. This has resulted in various campaigns to encourage people to always use prophylactics and to get tested more frequently. The use of stochastic epidemic modeling on networks to understand and predict present and future epidemics is increasingly important. The world is becoming smaller and more connected with easy and cheap travel, thus making infections spread faster on the global scale. This further exacerbated by the emerging global issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), spurred by the mis- and overuse of antibiotics. The growing AMR problem is also increasing the risk of prevention and treatment of infections, medical procedures and cancer treatment and increases costs of health care. The use of network epidemic models for the transmission of infections is getting more advanced and useful as spatial and geolocation data now is the norm. The aim of this thesis was to create epidemic network models with specific parameters that were able to capture the temporal dynamics of the spread of gonorrhea in Norway in a sequence of years, using reports and statistics from Folkehelseinstituttet (FHI). Altogether the following ten SIS/SIR/SIERS epidemic network models were built: Four models using FHI reports, one model to predict the gonorrhea spread in 2018, two for the initial spread only seeded from Oslo and three models for the AMR transmission. Of the ten models built, the four SIS epidemic network models using FHI reports and the 2018 model proved to yield the most interesting results, by capturing some key characteristics of the transmission of gonorrhea. With parameter combinations of the recovery rate (alpha) and the transmission rate (\beta) in the models, the total cumulative number of infected MSM in Norway was retrieved with an average discrepancy of 3.7 % from the reports for the respective years. The parameters were constant for all the models, with the exception of the probability of exposure to infection (beta_2,G5). The parameter beta_2,G5 was increased with an average of 1.2 % every year. The 2018 model was generated using the increase of beta_2,G5 and predicted an increase of 14.7 % in the number of gonorrhea cases among MSM in Norway compared to 2017

Efficiency of IllustrisTNG in modeling galaxy properties

Kosmologiske hydrodynamiske simuleringer er kraftige verktøy i studier av galakseformasjon og utvikling. De nyeste moderne simuleringene som IllustrisTNG endrer grensene for hva som er mulig i moderne astrofysikk. Samtidig har store observasjonsundersøkelser av det nærliggende universet utvidet vår forståelse for hvilke egenskaper og relasjoner galakser forventes å følge. Å sammenligne observasjoner og simuleringer er ikke alltid enkelt, og literaturen inneholder en mengde metoder og varierende resultater. I dette arbeidet er flere forskjellige metoder brukt for å regne ut og sammenligne stjerne- og halomassen, den karakteristiske størrelsen, hastigheter og farger i IllustrisTNG-galakser. Forholdene mellom disse egenskapene er også sammenlignet mot observasjoner av det nærliggende universet fra SAMI-undersøkelsen. Forskjellige metoder for klassifisering av galakser basert på morfologi og effekten av dette på sammenhengene mellom egenskapene er også studert. Resultatene viser at stjernemassen og halvmasse-radiusen er veldig avhengig av den bestemte grensen på galaksens størrelse, mens hastighet- og fargeestimater ikke er det. Stellar-to-halo-mass relasjonen til IllustrisTNG galakser er lignende den funnet i observasjoner opp til en halomasse på $10^{12.3} \, {\rm M_\odot}$, men for større haloer er stigningstallet høyere og avhenger veldig av definisjonen på stjernemasse. Størrelse-masse relasjonen er i godt samsvar med observasjoner for hele galaksepopulasjonen, men har større avvik dersom man ser på elliptiske og spiralgalakser separat. Tully-Fisher relasjonen til IllustrisTNG har et lavere stigningstall enn observasjonene, mens verdiene faller innenfor usikkerhetene. Faber-Jackson relasjonen til IllustrisTNG og observasjoner har lignende stigningstall, men IllustrisTNG har et lavere nullpunkt. Til slutt er fargebimodaliteten i IllustrisTNG i godt samsvar med observasjoner, men farge-masse relasjonen i IllustrisTNG er flatere og mer binær enn SAMI-dataen indikerer. Alt i alt reproduserer IllustrisTNG observasjonene av det nærliggende universet godt. Det er likevel viktig å vurdere metoden for galakseklassifikasjon og måten egenskapene til galaksene regnes ut på, spesielt med tanke på stjernemasse og karakteristisk størrelse, da estimatene av disse kan variere mye.Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations are powerful tools in the study of galaxy formation and evolution. The newest suite of state-of-the-art simulations like IllustrisTNG are pushing the boundaries of modern astrophysics. At the same time, large observational surveys of galaxies in the nearby Universe have increased our understanding of what properties and scaling relations galaxies are expected to follow. Comparing observations and simulations is not always straightforward, and the literature contains a multitude of methods and varying results. In this work, various methods used to calculate stellar and halo mass, characteristic size, velocities and color of IllustrisTNG galaxies are studied and compared against each other. The scaling relations related to these properties were also compared against observational data of the local Universe from the SAMI galaxy survey. Different methods of morphological classifications and their impacts upon the scaling relations were also explored. It was found that the stellar mass and half-mass radius are sensitively dependent upon galaxy size limit definitions, while velocity and color estimates are not affected. The stellar-to-halo-mass relation of IllustrisTNG galaxies was found to be similar to observations for halo masses up to $10^{12.3} \, {\rm M_\odot}$, but for larger halos the slope is steeper and depends heavily on the stellar mass definition used. The size-mass relation shows excellent agreement for the entire galaxy population, but has larger discrepancies when separated into early and late type galaxies. The Tully-Fisher relation of IllustrisTNG has a shallower slope than observations, while the values fall within the observational uncertainties. The Faber-Jackson relation of IllustrisTNG and observations have similar slopes, but IllustrisTNG has a lower zero-point. Finally, the color bimodality in IllustrisTNG is in good agreement with observations, but the color-mass slope in IllustrisTNG is flatter and more distinctly bimodal than the SAMI data indicates. Overall IllustrisTNG reproduces the observations of the local Universe well. It is however very important to consider the method of galaxy morphology classification and the way the properties are calculated, especially stellar mass and characteristic size, because differences in estimates may vary significantly

Oral Interview of Raymond Grefsrud

https://red.mnstate.edu/oral_interviews/1297/thumbnail.jp

Sensitivity towards elevated pCO2 in great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck) embryos and fed larvae

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Risk understanding and risk acknowledgement: a new approach to environmental risk assessment in marine aquaculture

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Metoder og erfaringer i 1970-årene

Denne rapporten presenterer en del hovedresultater fra prosjektet ''Analyser og prognoser vedrørende tilbud av og etterspørsel etter arbeidskraft i de nordiske land"

Adding fish waste to the diet of Iceland scallop Chlamys islandica: effects on feeding and reproductive ability

Organic enrichment from fish farming may impact benthic species and habitats in adjacent areas. Norwegian salmon farming is continuously growing, but, due to area conflicts and severe sea-lice problems in the western areas, growth of the industry is focused in the northern areas. Knowledge is scarce on how an increase in fish farming will impact Arctic and subarctic species and habitats. One such species is the Iceland scallop Chlamys islandica, distributed from the Lofoten Islands in Nordland County to the Varangerfjord in Troms and Finnmark County. To study the impact of fine-particle fish faeces on feeding and reproductive ability in adult Iceland scallop, particles <41 µm of finfish waste were added to the diet. Effects were tested via short-term (weeks) feeding studies using 2 diets, 100% cultured algal species and a 50% mix of algae and fish waste. In addition, a 100% fish waste diet was used to study longer-term effects on reproductive ability (months). Feeding (% particle clearance and feeding rate) on the microalgae diet tended to be higher than that on the diet containing fish waste, but the difference was significant only in 2 out of 4 cases. We did not find any effect of diets on reproductive ability (gonad development and fatty acid profiles) of scallops. Lack of knowledge on sufficient food levels for gonad maturation in this species may have affected the results. We suggest that future work includes the transplant of scallops from a reference site to fish production sites and that investigations begin immediately after spawning early in scallop gonad development.publishedVersio

Deformities in larvae and juvenile European lobster (Homarus gammarus) exposed to lower pH at two different temperatures

The ongoing warming and acidification of the world's oceans are expected to influence the marine ecosystems, including benthic marine resources. Ocean acidification may especially have an impact on calcifying organisms, and the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) is among those species at risk. A project was initiated in 2011 aiming to investigate long-term effects of ocean acidification on the early life-cycle of lobster under two temperatures. Larvae were exposed to pCO2 levels of ambient water (water intake at 90 m depth), medium 750 (pH = 7.79) and high 1200 μatm pCO2 (pH = 7.62) at temperatures 10 and 18 °C. The water parameters in ambient water did not stay stable and were very low towards the end of the experiment in the larval phase at 10 °C,with pH between 7.83 and 7.90. At 18°, pH in ambient treatment was even lower, between 7.76 and 7.83, i.e. close to medium pCO2 treatment. Long-term exposure lasted 5 months. At 18 °C the development from stage 1 to 4 lasted 14 to 16 days, as predicted under optimal water conditions. Growth was very slow at 10 °C and resulted in three larvae reaching stage 4 in high pCO2 treatment only. There were no clear effects of pCO2 treatment, on either carapace length or dry weight. However, deformities were observed in both larvae and juveniles. The proportion of larvae with deformities increased with increasing pCO2 exposure, independent of temperature. In the medium treatment about 23% were deformed, and in the high treatment about 43% were deformed. None of the larvae exposed to water of pH >7.9 developed deformities. Curled carapace was the most common deformity found in larvae raised in medium pCO2 treatment, irrespective of temperature, but damages in the tail fan occurred in addition to a bent rostrum. Curled carapace was the only deformity found in high pCO2 treatment at both temperatures. Occurrence of deformities after five months of exposure was 33 and 44% in juveniles raised in ambient and low pCO2 levels, respectively, and 21% in juveniles exposed to high pCO2. Deformed claws were most often found in ambient and medium treatment (56%, followed by stiff/twisted walking legs (39%) and puffy carapace (39%). In comparison, at high pCO2 levels 71% of the deformed juveniles had developed a puffy carapace. Overall, about half of the deformed juveniles from the ambient and medium pCO2 treatment displayed two or three different abnormalities; 70% had multiple deformities in the high pCO2 treatment. Some of the deformities in the juveniles may affect respiration (carapace), the ability to find food, or sexual partners (walking legs, claw and antenna), and ability to swim (tail-fan damages)

Risikorapport norsk fiskeoppdrett 2020 : Risiko knyttet til dødelighet hos utvandrende postsmolt laks som følge av utslipp av lakselus fra fiskeoppdrett

Havforskningsinstituttet har siden 2011 gitt ut en årlig risikorapport for norsk fiskeoppdrett med fokus på miljøeffekter og dyrevelferd. Arbeidet med rapporten har vist at akvakultur har et svært komplekst risikobilde, og det er varierende kunnskapsnivå og grad av tilgjengelige overvåkningsdata knyttet til de ulike miljøpåvirkningene. Lakselus og rømt oppdrettslaks regnes per i dag som de største truslene for villaksen og i 2017 ble det innført en handlingsregel basert på lakselus som miljøindikator som regulerer kapasitetsendringer i oppdrettsnæringen (Trafikklyssystemet). Der ekspertgruppen i Trafikklyssystemet beskriver nåværende status i produksjonsområdene basert på de siste to årene, ønsker vi med denne risikovurderingen å skape økt forståelse og innsikt rundt de antatt viktigste risikofaktorene knyttet til effekten av lakselus på utvandrende postsmolt laks, hvordan disse samspiller, og konsekvensen av disse. Argumentasjonen og vurderingene våre bygger på data og annen tilgjengelig kunnskap fra perioden 2012-2019.publishedVersio