A model of human event detection in multiple process monitoring situations

It is proposed that human decision making in many multi-task situations might be modeled in terms of the manner in which the human detects events related to his tasks and the manner in which he allocates his attention among his tasks once he feels events have occurred. A model of human event detection performance in such a situation is presented. An assumption of the model is that, in attempting to detect events, the human generates the probability that events have occurred. Discriminant analysis is used to model the human's generation of these probabilities. An experimental study of human event detection performance in a multiple process monitoring situation is described and the application of the event detection model to this situation is addressed. The experimental study employed a situation in which subjects simulataneously monitored several dynamic processes for the occurrence of events and made yes/no decisions on the presence of events in each process. Input to the event detection model of the information displayed to the experimental subjects allows comparison of the model's performance with the performance of the subjects

PAPERLESS DEBATE: THE WAVE OF THE FUTURE

This paper details a complete program evaluation of a high school debate team’s transition from debating with paper to paperless debate. The study examines if switching to debate without paper has improved the success of the debate team by focusing on the team’s winning percentage, the cost of debate travel and participation, as well as the debaters’ views of the ease of debating before and after the paperless transition. The paper concludes that the transition was indeed a success, because it increased the team’s win percentage (though not by a statistically significant margin), saved the team thousands of dollars, and made debate easier for students

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

An investigation was made of interaction between a human pilot and automated on-board decision making systems. Research was initiated on the topic of pilot problem solving in automated and semi-automated flight management systems and attempts were made to develop a model of human decision making in a multi-task situation. A study was made of allocation of responsibility between human and computer, and discussed were various pilot performance parameters with varying degrees of automation. Optimal allocation of responsibility between human and computer was considered and some theoretical results found in the literature were presented. The pilot as a problem solver was discussed. Finally the design of displays, controls, procedures, and computer aids for problem solving tasks in automated and semi-automated systems was considered

How Much Ecological Information is Preserved in Fossil Coral Reefs and How Reliable is it?

The coral reef fossil record is the exclusive database from which analyses of the response of coral communities to environmental change over geological time scales may be gauged. However, few studies have attempted to ascertain whether the reef fossil record is a reasonably accurate representation of a once living coral community. To address this issue, we have performed a systematic comparison of the taxonomic composition and diversity present in exposure of Pleistocene patch reef and reef tract facies found in the Bahamas to that observed for life and death assemblages currently present in analogous modern reefs of the Florida Keys. Results reveal that both modern death assemblages and fossil assemblages preserve the zonation observed on living reefs. However, the taxonomic composition of living reef communities is more closely matched by the fossil assemblages than by the death assemblages. We conclude that the Quaternary record of Caribbean reefs does preserve a reliable account of the long term responses of coral communities to environmental change

Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982

This research investigates product life cycles in the commercial mainframe computer market. We show that empirical studies conducted at the product level are useful for investigating processes underlying product life cycles. We use hazard models with time-varying covariates to estimate the probability of product exit and Poisson models to estimate the probability of introduction. We measure the importance of different aspects of market structure, such as the degree of competitiveness, cannibalization, vintage, product niche and firm effects. We find some evidence of a relationship between the determinants of product exit and product entry.

Teaching and understanding of quantum interpretations in modern physics courses

Just as expert physicists vary in their personal stances on interpretation in quantum mechanics, instructors vary on whether and how to teach interpretations of quantum phenomena in introductory modern physics courses. In this paper, we document variations in instructional approaches with respect to interpretation in two similar modern physics courses recently taught at the University of Colorado, and examine associated impacts on student perspectives regarding quantum physics. We find students are more likely to prefer realist interpretations of quantum-mechanical systems when instructors are less explicit in addressing student ontologies. We also observe contextual variations in student beliefs about quantum systems, indicating that instructors who choose to address questions of ontology in quantum mechanics should do so explicitly across a range of topics.Comment: 18 pages, references, plus 2 pages supplemental materials. 8 figures. PACS: 01.40.Fk, 03.65.-