Speculation beyond technology: building scenarios through storytelling

‘Modern methods of construction’ is a term largely synonymous with the prefabrication of product components in factories. Emerging technologies, e.g. robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), are redefining the concept of modern methods of construction and destabilising the structure of the sector to meet the conditions of their implementation. Robotics and machine-based automation, for example, are expected to transform construction manufacturing techniques in rapid and significant ways, but the extent of change and the associated impacts on organisations, supply chains and business models that constitute the sector remains unknown. Existing foresight is dominated by trajectorial perspectives that overemphasise technological predictions and underemphasise the contextual stories of implementation most helpful in understanding technology adoption. An alternative approach presented here focuses on storytelling, the design of the scenarios and the visual images used to help convey these scenarios. These allow practitioners to explore how robotics and machine-based automation may play out in different characterisations of the industry. The research involved the analysis of an existing dataset to create four scenarios, before adapting and extending these scenarios through participatory workshops and interviews. Project participants were comprised of seven small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing and architectural fabrication, one tier 1 contractor, and two acclaimed industry experts from an industry advisory board and education centre

On the wall jet from the ring crevice of an internal combustion engine

Numerical simulations and experiments of the jetting of gases from the ring crevices of a laboratory engine shortly after exhaust valve opening showed an unanticipated radial flow of the crevice gases into the main combustion chamber. We report well-resolved numerical simulations of a wall jet that show that this radial motion is driven by vorticity generation in the wall boundary layer and at the corner of the piston crown

Probing Broad Absorption Line Quasar Outflows: X-ray Insights

Energetic outflows appear to occur in conjunction with active mass accretion onto supermassive black holes. These outflows are most readily observed in the approximately 10% of quasars with broad absorption lines, where the observer's line of sight passes through the wind. Until fairly recently, the paucity of X-ray data from these objects was notable, but now sensitive hard-band missions such as Chandra and XMM-Newton are routinely detecting broad absorption line quasars. The X-ray regime offers qualitatively new information for the understanding of these objects, and these new results must be taken into account in theoretical modeling of quasar winds.Comment: Submitted to Advances in Space Research for New X-ray Results from Clusters of Galaxies and Black Holes (Oct 2002; Houston, TX), eds. C. Done, E.M. Puchnarewicz, M.J. Ward. Requires cospar.sty (6 pgs, 5 figs

Combining observations with acoustic swath bathymetry and backscatter to map seabed sediment texture classes: the empirical best linear unbiased predictor

Seabed sediment texture can be mapped by geostatistical prediction from limited direct observations such as grab-samples. A geostatistical model can provide local estimates of the probability of each texture class so the most probable sediment class can be identified at any unsampled location, and the uncertainty of this prediction can be quantified. In this paper we show, in a case study off the northeast coast of England, how swath bathymetry and backscatter can be incorporated into a geostatistical linear mixed model (LMM) as fixed effects (covariates). Parameters of the LMM were estimated by maximum likelihood which allowed us to show that both covariates provided useful information. In a cross-validation, each observation was predicted from the rest using the LMMs with (i) no covariates, or (ii) bathymetry and backscatter as covariates. The proportion of cases in which the most probable class according to the prediction corresponded to the observed class was increased (from 58% to 65% of cases) by including the covariates which also increased the information content of the predictions, measured by the entropy of the class probabilities. A qualitative assessment of the geostatistical results shows that the model correctly predicts, for example, the occurrence of coarser sediment over discrete glacial sediment landforms, and muddier sediment in relatively quiescent, localized deep water environments. This demonstrates the potential for assimilating geophysical data with direct observations by the LMM, and could offer a basis for a routine mapping procedure which incorporates these and other ancillary information such as manually-interpreted geological and geomorphological maps

Benefiting from past wrongdoing, human embryonic stem cell lines, and the fragility of the German legal position

This paper examines the logic and morality of the German Stem Cell Act of 2002. After a brief description of the law’s scope and intent, its ethical dimensions are analysed in terms of symbolic threats, indirect consequences, and the encouragement of immorality. The conclusions are twofold. For those who want to accept the law, the arguments for its rationality and morality can be sound. For others, the emphasis on the uniqueness of the German experience, the combination of absolute and qualified value judgments, and the lingering questions of indirect encouragement of immoral activities will probably be too much.Peer reviewe

Palatini Variational Principle for an Extended Einstein-Hilbert Action

We consider a Palatini variation on a generalized Einstein-Hilbert action. We find that the Hilbert constraint, that the connection equals the Christoffel symbol, arises only as a special case of this general action, while for particular values of the coefficients of this generalized action, the connection is completely unconstrained. We discuss the relationship between this situation and that usually encountered in the Palatini formulation.Comment: 14 pages, LaTe

Mask formulas for cograssmannian Kazhdan-Lusztig polynomials

We give two contructions of sets of masks on cograssmannian permutations that can be used in Deodhar's formula for Kazhdan-Lusztig basis elements of the Iwahori-Hecke algebra. The constructions are respectively based on a formula of Lascoux-Schutzenberger and its geometric interpretation by Zelevinsky. The first construction relies on a basis of the Hecke algebra constructed from principal lower order ideals in Bruhat order and a translation of this basis into sets of masks. The second construction relies on an interpretation of masks as cells of the Bott-Samelson resolution. These constructions give distinct answers to a question of Deodhar.Comment: 43 page

Gauges and Cosmological Backreaction

We present a formalism for spatial averaging in cosmology applicable to general spacetimes and coordinates, and allowing the easy incorporation of a wide variety of matter sources. We apply this formalism to a Friedmann-LeMaitre-Robertson-Walker universe perturbed to second-order and present the corrections to the background in an unfixed gauge. We then present the corrections that arise in uniform curvature and conformal Newtonian gauges.Comment: 13 pages. Updated: reference added, typos corrected, exposition clarified. Version 3: Replaced with version published by JCA

Dependence of direct detection signals on the WIMP velocity distribution

The signals expected in WIMP direct detection experiments depend on the ultra-local dark matter distribution. Observations probe the local density, circular speed and escape speed, while simulations find velocity distributions that deviate significantly from the standard Maxwellian distribution. We calculate the energy, time and direction dependence of the event rate for a range of velocity distributions motivated by recent observations and simulations, and also investigate the uncertainty in the determination of WIMP parameters. The dominant uncertainties are the systematic error in the local circular speed and whether or not the MW has a high density dark disc. In both cases there are substantial changes in the mean differential event rate and the annual modulation signal, and hence exclusion limits and determinations of the WIMP mass. The uncertainty in the shape of the halo velocity distribution is less important, however it leads to a 5% systematic error in the WIMP mass. The detailed direction dependence of the event rate is sensitive to the velocity distribution. However the numbers of events required to detect anisotropy and confirm the median recoil direction do not change substantially.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, v2 version to appear in JCAP, minor change

The issue of Dark Energy in String Theory

Recent astrophysical observations, pertaining to either high-redshift supernovae or cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations, as those measured recently by the WMAP satellite, provide us with data of unprecedented accuracy, pointing towards two (related) facts: (i) our Universe is accelerated at present, and (ii) more than 70 % of its energy content consists of an unknown substance, termed dark energy, which is believed responsible for its current acceleration. Both of these facts are a challenge to String theory. In this review I outline briefly the challenges, the problems and possible avenues for research towards a resolution of the Dark Energy issue in string theory.Comment: Based on Invited lecture at the ``Third Aegean Summer School on: The Invisible Universe: Dark matter and Dark energy'', Karfas, Chios Island (Greece) September 26-October 1 200