Hierarchical Space-time Modelling of PM10 Pollution in the Emilia-Romagna Region

In questo lavoro si propone un modello gerarchico per lo studio della distribuzione spazio-temporale dell’inquinamento da PM10 in Emilia-Romagna. L’obiettivo è quello di fornire una prima caratterizzazione della variabilità spaziale e temporale delle concentrazioni e di misurarne la dipendenza dalle principali grandezze meteorologiche. I risultati mostrano come la variabilità temporale sia largamente dominante rispetto all’eterogeneità spaziale ed alla variabilità non spiegat

P-spline smoothing for spatial data collected worldwide

Spatial data collected worldwide at a huge number of locations are frequently used in environmental and climate studies. Spatial modelling for this type of data presents both methodological and computational challenges. In this work we illustrate a computationally efficient non parametric framework to model and estimate the spatial field while accounting for geodesic distances between locations. The spatial field is modelled via penalized splines (P-splines) using intrinsic Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) priors for the spline coefficients. The key idea is to use the sphere as a surrogate for the Globe, then build the basis of B-spline functions on a geodesic grid system. The basis matrix is sparse and so is the precision matrix of the GMRF prior, thus computational efficiency is gained by construction. We illustrate the approach on a real climate study, where the goal is to identify the Intertropical Convergence Zone using high-resolution remote sensing data

Assessing the evolution of territorial disparities in health

The paper investigates spatio-temporal trends in health disparities through an empirical example. We deal with geographical health pattern in Italy from 1991 to 2010, starting from infant mortality data available at the provincial level and assessing the existent disparity among macro-regions (the conventional Northern, Central and Southern macro-regions). After a discussion concerning suitable inequality indices and their decompositions when dealing with small area data, we propose a model-based approach that allows to properly tackle sampling variability. Results give evidences of persisting spatial disparity in infant mortality along time

Non-parametric regression on compositional covariates using Bayesian P-splines

Methods to perform regression on compositional covariates have recently been proposed using isometric log-ratios (ilr) representation of compositional parts. This approach consists of first applying standard regression on ilr coordinates and second, transforming the estimated ilr coefficients into their contrast log-ratio counterparts. This gives easy-to-interpret parameters indicating the relative effect of each compositional part. In this work we present an extension of this framework, where compositional covariate effects are allowed to be smooth in the ilr domain. This is achieved by fitting a smooth function over the multidimensional ilr space, using Bayesian Psplines. Smoothness is achieved by assuming random walk priors on spline coefficients in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The proposed methodology is applied to spatial data from an ecological survey on a gypsum outcrop located in the Emilia Romagna Region, Italy

In vivo and in vitro effects of selected antioxidants on rabbit meat microbiota

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of dietary vitamin E or EconomasE™ supplementation on the growth of several background/pathogenic bacteria on rabbit carcasses and hamburgers during refrigerated storage. For 51days, 270 New Zealand rabbits received either a basal diet, or experimental diets enriched with 100 or 200mg/kg of vitamin E or EconomasE™. The bacteria studied were Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Pseudomonas, Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci, plus both mesophilic and psychrotrophic aerobes. The growth of Listeria monocytogenes on contaminated patties was evaluated through a challenge test. The potential protective or antimicrobial effect of vitamin E or EconomasE™ on Listeria monocytogenes or Pseudomonas aeruginosa was assessed in vitro. Diet did not influence the concentrations of bacteria found on rabbit carcasses and developing on hamburgers. Vitamin E (in vivo and in vitro) and EconomasE™ in vivo had a protective antioxidant role, while EconomasE™ in vitro had strong antibacterial activity against Listeria monocytogenes, but not against Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Guest or pest? Spatio-temporal occurrence and effects on soil and vegetation of the wild boar on the Elba island

In areas where allochthonous large mammals, such as the wild boars (Sus scrofa), occur in high density, human-wildlife conflicts may arise. In these contexts, assessing spatio-temporal patterns of the introduced population is paramount to its management. Here, we studied wild boars in the Elba island, Italy, where they have been introduced and are perceived as pests. While crop-raiding has been documented, no studies addressed the spatio-temporal occurrence, nor the impact of foraging on natural habitat. We surveyed the Western part of the island with three camera trapping surveys within one year. We found that the species' estimated occupancy probability was higher in summer-autumn (0.75±0.14) and winter-early spring (0.70±0.10) than in late spring-summer (0.53±0.15), whereas detection probability did not vary. Occupancy was significantly associated with elevation and vegetation cover, with preference for lower elevation and woodland. The lower site use of wild boars during spring-summer might reflect lower food availability in this season, and/or movements towards landfarms outside the sampled area. Detectability increased with proximity to roads during spring-summer and decreased with humans' relative abundance in the other periods. Moreover, boars were mainly nocturnal, with an overlap with human activity that decreased when human presence was higher. Combined, these suggest behavioural avoidance of human disturbance by boars. We also evaluated the impact of boars' foraging on the soil and vegetation and found that it was higher in pine plantations than other covers, however, it was not associated with variation in boars' occupancy across habitats. Our results indicate that the spatio-temporal activity of wild boars on Elba island appears driven by seasonal preferences for food-rich cover and avoidance of human disturbance. The lowered site use in months with lower resources could partially reflect increased proximity to settled and farmed areas, which may, in turn, trigger crop-raiding and hence the negative perception by residents

ITALIAN CANCER FIGURES - REPORT 2015: The burden of rare cancers in Italy = I TUMORI IN ITALIA - RAPPORTO 2015: I tumori rari in Italia

OBJECTIVES: This collaborative study, based on data collected by the network of Italian Cancer Registries (AIRTUM), describes the burden of rare cancers in Italy. Estimated number of new rare cancer cases yearly diagnosed (incidence), proportion of patients alive after diagnosis (survival), and estimated number of people still alive after a new cancer diagnosis (prevalence) are provided for about 200 different cancer entities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data herein presented were provided by AIRTUM population- based cancer registries (CRs), covering nowadays 52% of the Italian population. This monograph uses the AIRTUM database (January 2015), which includes all malignant cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2010. All cases are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3). Data underwent standard quality checks (described in the AIRTUM data management protocol) and were checked against rare-cancer specific quality indicators proposed and published by RARECARE and HAEMACARE (www.rarecarenet.eu; www.haemacare.eu). The definition and list of rare cancers proposed by the RARECAREnet "Information Network on Rare Cancers" project were adopted: rare cancers are entities (defined as a combination of topographical and morphological codes of the ICD-O-3) having an incidence rate of less than 6 per 100,000 per year in the European population. This monograph presents 198 rare cancers grouped in 14 major groups. Crude incidence rates were estimated as the number of all new cancers occurring in 2000-2010 divided by the overall population at risk, for males and females (also for gender-specific tumours).The proportion of rare cancers out of the total cancers (rare and common) by site was also calculated. Incidence rates by sex and age are reported. The expected number of new cases in 2015 in Italy was estimated assuming the incidence in Italy to be the same as in the AIRTUM area. One- and 5-year relative survival estimates of cases aged 0-99 years diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 in the AIRTUM database, and followed up to 31 December 2009, were calculated using complete cohort survival analysis. To estimate the observed prevalence in Italy, incidence and follow-up data from 11 CRs for the period 1992-2006 were used, with a prevalence index date of 1 January 2007. Observed prevalence in the general population was disentangled by time prior to the reference date (≤2 years, 2-5 years, ≤15 years). To calculate the complete prevalence proportion at 1 January 2007 in Italy, the 15-year observed prevalence was corrected by the completeness index, in order to account for those cancer survivors diagnosed before the cancer registry activity started. The completeness index by cancer and age was obtained by means of statistical regression models, using incidence and survival data available in the European RARECAREnet data. RESULTS: In total, 339,403 tumours were included in the incidence analysis. The annual incidence rate (IR) of all 198 rare cancers in the period 2000-2010 was 147 per 100,000 per year, corresponding to about 89,000 new diagnoses in Italy each year, accounting for 25% of all cancer. Five cancers, rare at European level, were not rare in Italy because their IR was higher than 6 per 100,000; these tumours were: diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and squamous cell carcinoma of larynx (whose IRs in Italy were 7 per 100,000), multiple myeloma (IR: 8 per 100,000), hepatocellular carcinoma (IR: 9 per 100,000) and carcinoma of thyroid gland (IR: 14 per 100,000). Among the remaining 193 rare cancers, more than two thirds (No. 139) had an annual IR <0.5 per 100,000, accounting for about 7,100 new cancers cases; for 25 cancer types, the IR ranged between 0.5 and 1 per 100,000, accounting for about 10,000 new diagnoses; while for 29 cancer types the IR was between 1 and 6 per 100,000, accounting for about 41,000 new cancer cases. Among all rare cancers diagnosed in Italy, 7% were rare haematological diseases (IR: 41 per 100,000), 18% were solid rare cancers. Among the latter, the rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system were the most common (23%, IR: 26 per 100,000), followed by epithelial tumours of head and neck (17%, IR: 19) and rare cancers of the female genital system (17%, IR: 17), endocrine tumours (13% including thyroid carcinomas and less than 1% with an IR of 0.4 excluding thyroid carcinomas), sarcomas (8%, IR: 9 per 100,000), central nervous system tumours and rare epithelial tumours of the thoracic cavity (5%with an IR equal to 6 and 5 per 100,000, respectively). The remaining (rare male genital tumours, IR: 4 per 100,000; tumours of eye, IR: 0.7 per 100,000; neuroendocrine tumours, IR: 4 per 100,000; embryonal tumours, IR: 0.4 per 100,000; rare skin tumours and malignant melanoma of mucosae, IR: 0.8 per 100,000) each constituted <4% of all solid rare cancers. Patients with rare cancers were on average younger than those with common cancers. Essentially, all childhood cancers were rare, while after age 40 years, the common cancers (breast, prostate, colon, rectum, and lung) became increasingly more frequent. For 254,821 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2008, 5-year RS was on average 55%, lower than the corresponding figures for patients with common cancers (68%). RS was lower for rare cancers than for common cancers at 1 year and continued to diverge up to 3 years, while the gap remained constant from 3 to 5 years after diagnosis. For rare and common cancers, survival decreased with increasing age. Five-year RS was similar and high for both rare and common cancers up to 54 years; it decreased with age, especially after 54 years, with the elderly (75+ years) having a 37% and 20% lower survival than those aged 55-64 years for rare and common cancers, respectively. We estimated that about 900,000 people were alive in Italy with a previous diagnosis of a rare cancer in 2010 (prevalence). The highest prevalence was observed for rare haematological diseases (278 per 100,000) and rare tumours of the female genital system (265 per 100,000). Very low prevalence (<10 prt 100,000) was observed for rare epithelial skin cancers, for rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system and rare epithelial tumours of the thoracic cavity. COMMENTS: One in four cancers cases diagnosed in Italy is a rare cancer, in agreement with estimates of 24% calculated in Europe overall. In Italy, the group of all rare cancers combined, include 5 cancer types with an IR>6 per 100,000 in Italy, in particular thyroid cancer (IR: 14 per 100,000).The exclusion of thyroid carcinoma from rare cancers reduces the proportion of them in Italy in 2010 to 22%. Differences in incidence across population can be due to the different distribution of risk factors (whether environmental, lifestyle, occupational, or genetic), heterogeneous diagnostic intensity activity, as well as different diagnostic capacity; moreover heterogeneity in accuracy of registration may determine some minor differences in the account of rare cancers. Rare cancers had worse prognosis than common cancers at 1, 3, and 5 years from diagnosis. Differences between rare and common cancers were small 1 year after diagnosis, but survival for rare cancers declined more markedly thereafter, consistent with the idea that treatments for rare cancers are less effective than those for common cancers. However, differences in stage at diagnosis could not be excluded, as 1- and 3-year RS for rare cancers was lower than the corresponding figures for common cancers. Moreover, rare cancers include many cancer entities with a bad prognosis (5-year RS <50%): cancer of head and neck, oesophagus, small intestine, ovary, brain, biliary tract, liver, pleura, multiple myeloma, acute myeloid and lymphatic leukaemia; in contrast, most common cancer cases are breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, which have a good prognosis. The high prevalence observed for rare haematological diseases and rare tumours of the female genital system is due to their high incidence (the majority of haematological diseases are rare and gynaecological cancers added up to fairly high incidence rates) and relatively good prognosis. The low prevalence of rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system was due to the low survival rates of the majority of tumours included in this group (oesophagus, stomach, small intestine, pancreas, and liver), regardless of the high incidence rate of rare epithelial cancers of these sites. This AIRTUM study confirms that rare cancers are a major public health problem in Italy and provides quantitative estimations, for the first time in Italy, to a problem long known to exist. This monograph provides detailed epidemiologic indicators for almost 200 rare cancers, the majority of which (72%) are very rare (IR<0.5 per 100,000). These data are of major interest for different stakeholders. Health care planners can find useful information herein to properly plan and think of how to reorganise health care services. Researchers now have numbers to design clinical trials considering alternative study designs and statistical approaches. Population-based cancer registries with good quality data are the best source of information to describe the rare cancer burden in a population

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

A retrospective multicentric observational study of trastuzumab emtansine in HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer: A real-world experience

We addressed trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) efficacy in HER2+ metastatic breast cancer patients treated in real-world practice, and its activity in pertuzumab-pretreated patients. We conducted a retrospective, observational study involving 23 cancer centres, and 250 patients. Survival data were analyzed by Kaplan Meier curves and log rank test. Factors testing significant in univariate analysis were tested in multivariate models. Median follow-up was 15 months and median T-DM1 treatment-length 4 months. Response rate was 41.6%, clinical benefit 60.9%. Median progression-free and median overall survival were 6 and 20 months, respectively. Overall, no differences emerged by pertuzumab pretreatment, with median progression-free and median overall survival of 4 and 17 months in pertuzumab-pretreated (p=0.13), and 6 and 22 months in pertuzumab-na\uc3\uafve patients (p=0.27). Patients who received second-line T-DM1 had median progression-free and median overall survival of 3 and 12 months (p=0.0001) if pertuzumab-pretreated, and 8 and 26 months if pertuzumab-na\uc3\uafve (p=0.06). In contrast, in third-line and beyond, median progression-free and median overall survival were 16 and 18 months in pertuzumab-pretreated (p=0.05) and 6 and 17 months in pertuzumab-na\uc3\uafve patients (p=0.30). In multivariate analysis, lower ECOG performance status was associated with progression-free survival benefit (p < 0.0001), while overall survival was positively affected by lower ECOG PS (p < 0.0001), absence of brain metastases (p 0.05), and clinical benefit (p < 0.0001). Our results are comparable with those from randomized trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm and interpret our data on apparently lower T-DM1 efficacy when given as second-line treatment after pertuzumab, and on the optimal sequence order