Chasing rainfall: estimating event precipitation along tracks of tropical cyclones via reanalysis data and in-situ gauges

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important water source in many regions around the world, replenishing local dams, waterways and groundwater systems. Three diverse precipitation datasets were tested for dissimilarities in their rainfall characteristics via a new, freely available rainfall tracking toolbox for MATLAB and GNU Octave users: 1) the ERA5 global reanalysis, 2) the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily station dataset and 3) the regional SILO (Scientific Information for Land Owners) database. Although SILO only covers Australia, its relatively high resolution (0.05°) provides advantages for studies in that region. To test the differences in precipitation datasets, six episodes (eight individual TC events) in all major basins affected by TCs have been selected. These include two instances in which consecutive TCs severely impacted the same region (TCs Idai and Kenneth in south-eastern Africa during March/April 2019 – and hurricanes Eta and Iota in Central America in November 2020). Precipitation for TC episodes was explored through event totals and the proportional contribution to water years within each dataset. Each precipitation dataset demonstrated its inherent advantages and drawbacks, highlighting the benefits of using more than one source to thoroughly evaluate an individual event. These attributes – coupled with the associated impacts of cyclonic events – reinforce the importance of developing tools that can aid in managing TC-related rainfall and flooding potential

A Vision for Inclusion: An LGBT Broadband Future

This report provides an overview of the current scholarship and policy around the particular needs of LGBT people and the Internet

Essential Oils from Apple mint (Mentha suaveolens) and Passionflower fruit (Passiflora incarnata): Studies on Cognition, Coordination, and Chemical Components.

Plant essential oils (EO) are used as perfumes, lotions and air fresheners because of their pleasant aromas, but EO also have the ability to elicit changes in mood and behavior. These activities are influenced by the mode of administration and by multiple signaling pathways. The EO aromas from organically grown apple mint (Mentha suaveolens) and passionflower fruit (Passiflora incarnata) were assessed for their effects on cognition and coordination. Participants completed two tasks designed to test working memory and bimanual task efficiency in rooms infused with apple mint, passionflower fruit or control EO. Bimanual coordination was assessed using the Intercept2 program and the Memory Span component of CogLab 2.0 was utilized as a test of working memory. Then, the EO were analyzed by GC-MS, resulting in the identification of several compounds with affinity towards olfactory receptors and neurotransmitter systems. For specific memory subtests within CogLab, EO from apple mint aided number recall, whereas passionflower fruit hindered recall of numbers and letters that sound similar. Passionflower fruit EO slightly enhanced bimanual task coordination. The results indicate that specific aromas may differentially affect task performance

The signal transducer IL6ST (gp130) as a predictive and 2 prognostic biomarker in breast cancer

Novel biomarkers are needed to continue to improve breast cancer clinical management and outcome. IL6-like cytokines, whose pleiotropic functions include roles in many hallmarks of malignancy, rely on the signal transducer IL6ST (gp130) for all their signalling. To date, 10 separate independent studies based on the analysis of clinical breast cancer samples have identified IL6ST as a predictor. Consistent findings suggest that IL6ST is a positive prognostic factor and is associated with ER status. Interestingly, these studies include 4 multigene signatures (EndoPredict, EER4, IRSN-23 and 42GC) that incorporate IL6ST to predict risk of recurrence or outcome from endocrine or chemotherapy. Here we review the existing evidence on the promising predictive and prognostic value of IL6ST. We also discuss how this potential could be further translated into clinical practice beyond the EndoPredict tool, which is already available in the clinic. The most promising route to further exploit IL6ST’s promising predicting power will likely be through additional hybrid multifactor signatures that allow for more robust stratification of ER+ breast tumours into discrete groups with distinct outcomes, thus enabling greater refinement of the treatment-selection process

Characterizing Australia's east coast cyclones (1950–2019)

East coast cyclones (ECCs) provide an essential reprieve from dry periods across eastern Australia. They also deliver flood‐producing rains with significant economic, social and environmental impacts. Assessing and comparing the influence of different types of cyclones is hindered by an incomplete understanding of ECC typology, given their widely variable spatial and temporal characteristics. This study employs a track‐clustering method (probabilistic curve‐aligned regression model) to identify key cyclonic pathways for ECCs from 1950 to 2019. Six spatially independent clusters were successfully distinguished and further sub‐classified (coastal, continental and tropical) based on their genesis location. The seasonality and long‐term variability, intensity (maximum Laplacian value ± two days) and event‐based rainfall were then evaluated for each cluster to quantify the impact of these storms on Australia. The highest quantity of land‐based rainfall per event is associated with the tropical cluster (Cluster 6), whereas widespread rainfall was also found to occur in the two continental lows (Cluster 4 and 5). Cyclone tracks orientated close to the coast (clusters 1, 2 and 3) were determined to be the least impactful in terms of rainfall and intensity, despite being the most common cyclone type. In terms of interannual variability, sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an increased cyclone frequency for clusters 1 (austral winter) and 4 (austral spring) during a central Pacific El Niño. Further, cyclone incidence during IOD‐negative conditions was more pronounced in winter for clusters 1, 2, 3 – and clusters 4 and 5 in spring. All cyclones also predominantly occurred in SAM‐positive conditions. However, winter ECCs for clusters 1 and 3 had a higher frequency in SAM‐negative. This new typology of ECCs via spatial clustering provides crucial insights into the systems that produce extreme rainfall across eastern Australia and should be used to inform future hazard management of cyclone events. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Generalized Flux Vacua

We consider type II string theory compactified on a symmetric T^6/Z_2 orientifold. We study a general class of discrete deformations of the resulting four-dimensional supergravity theory, including gaugings arising from geometric and "nongeometric'' fluxes, as well as the usual R-R and NS-NS fluxes. Solving the equations of motion associated with the resulting N = 1 superpotential, we find parametrically controllable infinite families of supersymmetric vacua with all moduli stabilized. We also describe some aspects of the distribution of generic solutions to the SUSY equations of motion for this model, and note in particular the existence of an apparently infinite number of solutions in a finite range of the parameter space of the four-dimensional effective theory.Comment: 30 pages, 4 .eps figures; v2, reference adde

Nongeometric Flux Compactifications

We investigate a simple class of type II string compactifications which incorporate nongeometric "fluxes" in addition to "geometric flux" and the usual H-field and R-R fluxes. These compactifications are nongeometric analogues of the twisted torus. We develop T-duality rules for NS-NS geometric and nongeometric fluxes, which we use to construct a superpotential for the dimensionally reduced four-dimensional theory. The resulting structure is invariant under T-duality, so that the distribution of vacua in the IIA and IIB theories is identical when nongeometric fluxes are included. This gives a concrete framework in which to investigate the possibility that generic string compactifications may be nongeometric in any duality frame. The framework developed in this paper also provides some concrete hints for how mirror symmetry can be generalized to compactifications with arbitrary H-flux, whose mirrors are generically nongeometric.Comment: 26 pages, JHEP3. v3: references, minor corrections, and clarifications added. v4: sign correcte

Health Diplomacy the Adaptation of Global Health Interventions to Local Needs in sub-Saharan Africa and Thailand: Evaluating Findings from Project Accept (HPTN 043).

Study-based global health interventions, especially those that are conducted on an international or multi-site basis, frequently require site-specific adaptations in order to (1) respond to socio-cultural differences in risk determinants, (2) to make interventions more relevant to target population needs, and (3) in recognition of 'global health diplomacy' issues. We report on the adaptations development, approval and implementation process from the Project Accept voluntary counseling and testing, community mobilization and post-test support services intervention. We reviewed all relevant documentation collected during the study intervention period (e.g. monthly progress reports; bi-annual steering committee presentations) and conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with project directors and between 12 and 23 field staff at each study site in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Thailand and Tanzania during 2009. Respondents were asked to describe (1) the adaptations development and approval process and (2) the most successful site-specific adaptations from the perspective of facilitating intervention implementation. Across sites, proposed adaptations were identified by field staff and submitted to project directors for review on a formally planned basis. The cross-site intervention sub-committee then ensured fidelity to the study protocol before approval. Successfully-implemented adaptations included: intervention delivery adaptations (e.g. development of tailored counseling messages for immigrant labour groups in South Africa) political, environmental and infrastructural adaptations (e.g. use of local community centers as VCT venues in Zimbabwe); religious adaptations (e.g. dividing clients by gender in Muslim areas of Tanzania); economic adaptations (e.g. co-provision of income generating skills classes in Zimbabwe); epidemiological adaptations (e.g. provision of 'youth-friendly' services in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Tanzania), and social adaptations (e.g. modification of terminology to local dialects in Thailand: and adjustment of service delivery schedules to suit seasonal and daily work schedules across sites). Adaptation selection, development and approval during multi-site global health research studies should be a planned process that maintains fidelity to the study protocol. The successful implementation of appropriate site-specific adaptations may have important implications for intervention implementation, from both a service uptake and a global health diplomacy perspective

Palaeolimnological evidence for an east-west climate see-saw in the Mediterranean since AD 900

During the period of instrumental records, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has strongly influenced inter-annual precipitation variations in the western Mediterranean, while some eastern parts of the basin have shown an anti-phase relationship in precipitation and atmospheric pressure. Here we explore how the NAO and other atmospheric circulation modes operated over the longer timescales of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). High-resolution palaeolimnological evidence from opposite ends of the Mediterranean basin, supplemented by other palaeoclimate data, is used to track shifts in regional hydro-climatic conditions. Multiple geochemical, sedimentological, isotopic and palaeoecological proxies from Estanya and Montcortés lakes in northeast Spain and Nar lake in central Turkey have been cross-correlated at decadal time intervals since AD 900. These dryland lakes capture sensitively changes in precipitation/evaporation (P/E) balance by adjustments in water level and salinity, and are especially valuable for reconstructing variability over decadal-centennial timescales. Iberian lakes show lower water levels and higher salinities during the 11th to 13th centuries synchronous with the MCA and generally more humid conditions during the 'LIA' (15th-19th centuries). This pattern is also clearly evident in tree-ring records from Morocco and from marine cores in the western Mediterranean Sea. In the eastern Mediterranean, palaeoclimatic records from Turkey, Greece and the Levant show generally drier hydro-climatic conditions during the LIA and a wetter phase during the MCA. This implies that a bipolar climate see-saw has operated in the Mediterranean for the last 1100. years. However, while western Mediterranean aridity appears consistent with persistent positive NAO state during the MCA, the pattern is less clear in the eastern Mediterranean. Here the strongest evidence for higher winter season precipitation during the MCA comes from central Turkey in the northeastern sector of the Mediterranean basin. This in turn implies that the LIA/MCA hydro-climatic pattern in the Mediterranean was determined by a combination of different climate modes along with major physical geographical controls, and not by NAO forcing alone, or that the character of the NAO and its teleconnections have been non-stationary. © 2011 Elsevier B.V