DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach

Neurodegenerative Diseases: An Overview of Environmental Risk Factors

The population of the United States is aging, and an ever-increasing number of Americans are afflicted with neurodegenerative diseases. Because the pathogenesis of many of these diseases remains unknown, we must consider that environmental factors may play a causal role. This review provides an overview of the epidemiologic evidence for environmental etiologies for neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer disease, Parkinson disease, parkinsonian syndromes (multiple system atrophy and progressive supranuclear palsy), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Epidemiologic evidence for an association between environmental agents’ exposure and neurodegenerative diseases is not conclusive. However, there are indications that there may be causal links, and the need for more research is obvious

Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty in patients aged less than 65: Combined data from the Australian and Swedish Knee Registries

Introduction and purpose: In recent years, there has been renewed interest in using unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). Several studies have reported increasing numbers of UKAs for osteoarthritis in patients who are less than 65 years of age, with low revision rates. To describe and compare the use and outcome of UKA in this age group, we have combined data from the Australian and Swedish knee registries. Patients and methods: More than 34,000 UKA procedures carried out between 1998 and 2007 were analyzed, and we focused on over 16,000 patients younger than 65 years to determine usage and to determine differences in the revision rate. Survival analysis was used to determine outcomes of revision related to age and sex, using any reason for revision as the endpoint. Results: Both countries showed a decreasing use of UKA in recent years in terms of the proportion of knee replacements and absolute numbers undertaken per year. The 7-year cumulative risk of revision of UKA in patients younger than 65 years was similar in the two countries. Patients younger than 55 years had a statistically significantly higher cumulative risk of revision than patients aged 55 to 64 years (19% and 12%, respectively at 7 years). The risk of revision in patients less than 65 years of age was similar in both sexes. Interpretation: The results of the combined UKA data from the Australian and Swedish registries show a uniformity of outcome between countries with patients aged less than 65 having a higher rate of revision than patients who were 65 or older. Surgeons and patients should be aware of the higher risk of revision in this age group.Annette W-Dahl, Otto Robertsson, Lars Lidgren, Lisa Miller, David Davidson, Stephen Graves

The Inexorable Spread of a Newly Arisen Neo-Y Chromosome

A newly arisen Y-chromosome can become established in one part of a species range by genetic drift or through the effects of selection on sexually antagonistic alleles. However, it is difficult to explain why it should then spread throughout the species range after this initial episode. As it spreads into new populations, it will actually enter females. It would then be expected to perform poorly since it will have been shaped by the selective regime of the male-only environment from which it came. We address this problem using computer models of hybrid zone dynamics where a neo-XY chromosomal race meets the ancestral karyotype. Our models consider that the neo-Y was established by the fusion of an autosome with the ancestral X-chromosome (thereby creating the Y and the ‘fused X’). Our principal finding is that sexually antagonistic effects of the Y induce indirect selection in favour of the fused X-chromosomes, causing their spread. The Y-chromosome can then spread, protected behind the advancing shield of the fused X distribution. This mode of spread provides a robust explanation of how newly arisen Y-chromosomes can spread. A Y-chromosome would be expected to accumulate mutations that would cause it to be selected against when it is a rare newly arrived migrant. The Y can spread, nevertheless, because of the indirect selection induced by gene flow (which can only be observed in models comprising multiple populations). These results suggest a fundamental re-evaluation of sex-chromosome hybrid zones. The well-understood evolutionary events that initiate the Y-chromosome's degeneration will actually fuel its range expansion

Outcome of primary resurfacing hip replacement: evaluation of risk factors for early revision: 12,093 replacements from the Australian Joint Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The outcome of modern resurfacing remains to be determined. The Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) started collection of data on hip resurfacing at a time when modern resurfacing was started in Australia. The rate of resurfacing has been higher in Australia than in many other countries. As a result, the AOANJRR has one of the largest series of resurfacing procedures. This study was undertaken to determine the results of this series and the risk factors associated with revision. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from the AOANJRR were used to analyze the survivorship of 12,093 primary resurfacing hip replacements reported to the Joint Replacement Registry between September 1999 and December 2008. This was compared to the results of primary conventional total hip replacement reported during the same period. The Kaplan-Meier method and proportional hazards models were used to determine risk factors such as age, sex, femoral component size, primary diagnosis, and implant design. RESULTS: Female patients had a higher revision rate than males; however, after adjusting for head size, the revision rates were similar. Prostheses with head sizes of less than 50 mm had a higher revision rate than those with head sizes of 50 mm or more. At 8 years, the cumulative per cent revision of hip resurfacing was 5.3 (4.6-6.2), as compared to 4.0 (3.8-4.2) for total hip replacement. However, in osteoarthritis patients aged less than 55 years with head sizes of 50 mm or more, the 7-year cumulative per cent revision for hip resurfacing was 3.0 (2.2-4.2). Also, hips with dysplasia and some implant designs had an increased risk of revision. INTERPRETATION: Risk factors for revision of resurfacing were older patients, smaller femoral head size, patients with developmental dysplasia, and certain implant designs. These results highlight the importance of patient and prosthesis selection in optimizing the outcome of hip resurfacing

Left Hemisphere Specialization for Oro-Facial Movements of Learned Vocal Signals by Captive Chimpanzees

The left hemisphere of the human brain is dominant in the production of speech and signed language. Whether similar lateralization of function for communicative signal production is present in other primates remains a topic of considerable debate. In the current study, we examined whether oro-facial movements associated with the production of learned attention-getting sounds are differentially lateralized compared to facial expressions associated with the production of species-typical emotional vocalizations in chimpanzees.Still images captured from digital video were used to quantify oro-facial asymmetries in the production of two attention-getting sounds and two species-typical vocalizations in a sample of captive chimpanzees. Comparisons of mouth asymmetries during production of these sounds revealed significant rightward biased asymmetries for the attention-getting sounds and significant leftward biased asymmetries for the species-typical sounds.These results suggest that the motor control of oro-facial movements associated with the production of learned sounds is lateralized to the left hemisphere in chimpanzees. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the antecedents for lateralization of human speech may have been present in the common ancestor of chimpanzees and humans approximately 5 mya and are not unique to the human lineage

Acceptability of the Distress Thermometer and Problem List to community-based telephone cancer helpline operators, and to cancer patients and carers

Background Cancer can be a distressing experience for cancer patients and carers, impacting on psychological, social, physical and spiritual functioning. However, health professionals often fail to detect distress in their patients due to time constraints and a lack of experience. Also, with the focus on the patient, carer needs are often overlooked. This study investigated the acceptability of brief distress screening with the Distress Thermometer (DT) and Problem List (PL) to operators of a community-based telephone helpline, as well as to cancer patients and carers calling the service. Methods Operators (n = 18) monitored usage of the DT and PL with callers (cancer patients/carers, >18 years, and English-speaking) from September-December 2006 (n = 666). The DT is a single item, 11-point scale to rate level of distress. The associated PL identifies the cause of distress. Results The DT and PL were used on 90% of eligible callers, most providing valid responses. Benefits included having an objective, structured and consistent means for distress screening and triage to supportive care services. Reported challenges included apparent inappropriateness of the tools due to the nature of the call or level of caller distress, the DT numeric scale, and the level of operator training. Conclusions We observed positive outcomes to using the DT and PL, although operators reported some challenges. Overcoming these challenges may improve distress screening particularly by less experienced clinicians, and further development of the PL items and DT scale may assist with administration. The DT and PL allow clinicians to direct/prioritise interventions or referrals, although ongoing training and support is critical in distress screening

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Lack of EGF receptor contributes to drug sensitivity of human germline cells

Germline mutations have been associated with generation of various types of tumour. In this study, we investigated genetic alteration of germline tumours that affect the drug sensitivity of cells. Although all germline tumour cells we tested were hypersensitive to DNA-damaging drugs, no significant alteration was observed in their DNA repair activity or the expression of DNA repair proteins. In contrast, germline tumours expressed very low level of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) compared to drug-resistant ovarian cancer cells. An immunohistochemical analysis indicated that most of the primary germline tumours we tested expressed very low level of EGFR. In accordance with this, overexpression of EGFR in germline tumour cells showed an increase in drug resistance, suggesting that a lack of EGFR, at least in part, contributes to the drug sensitivity of germline tumours