Modeling path effects in three-dimensional basin structures

Path effects for seismic wave propagation within three-dimensional (3-D) basin structures are analyzed using a reciprocal source experiment. In this experiment, a numerical simulation is performed in which a point source is excited at a given location and then the wave field is propagated and recorded throughout a 3-D grid of points. Using the principle of reciprocity, source and receiver locations are reversed. This allows the modeling of path effects into a particular observation site for all possible source locations using only one simulation. The numerical technique is based on the use of paraxial extrapolators and currently tracks only acoustic waves. However, the method is capable of handling arbitrary media variations; thus, effects due to focusing, diffraction, and the generation of multiple reflections and refractions are modeled quite well. The application of this technique to model path effects for local earthquakes recorded at stations in the Los Angeles area of southern California indicates the strong influence of the 3-D crustal basins of this region on the propagation of seismic energy. The modeling results show that the Los Angeles, San Fernando, and San Gabriel basins create strong patterns of focusing and defocusing for paths into these stations from various source locations. These simulations correlate well with earthquake data recorded at both stations. By comparing these calculations with earthquake data, we can begin to evaluate the importance of these basin effects on observed patterns of strong ground motions

Toggle release

A pyrotechnic actuated structural release device 10 which is mechanically two fault tolerant for release. The device 10 comprises a fastener plate 11 and fastener body 12, each attachable to a different one of a pair of structures to be joined. The fastener plate 11 and body 12 are fastenable by a toggle 13 supported at one end on the fastener plate and mounted for universal pivotal movement thereon. At its other end which is received in a central opening in the fastener body 12 and adapted for limited pivotal movement therein the toggle 13 is restrained by three retractable latching pins 61 symmetrically disposed in equiangular spacing about the axis of the toggle 13 and positionable in latching engagement with an end fitting on the toggle. Each pin 61 is individually retractable by combustion of a pyrotechnic charge 77, the expanding gases of which are applied to a pressure receiving face 67 on the latch pin 61 to effect its retraction from the toggle. While retraction of all three pins 62 releases the toggle, the fastener is mechanically two fault tolerant since the failure of any single one or pair of the latch pins to retract results in an asymmetrical loading on the toggle and its pivotal movement to effect a release. An annular bolt 18 is mounted on the fastener plate 11 as a support for the socket mounting 30, 37 of the toggle whereby its selective axial movement provides a means for preloading the toggle

Coulomb Stress Change Sensitivity due to Variability in Mainshock Source Models and Receiving Fault Parameters: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquakes

Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for infrastructure recovery as well as for emergency rescue efforts. A tragic instance of this is the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch aftershock in New Zealand, which caused more than 100 deaths while the 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury mainshock did not cause a single fatality (Figure 1). Therefore, substantial efforts have been directed toward understanding the generation mechanisms of aftershocks as well as mitigating hazards due to aftershocks. Among these efforts are the prediction of strong aftershocks, earthquake early warning, and aftershock probability assessment. Zhang et al. (1999) reported a successful case of strong aftershock prediction with precursory data such as changes in seismicity pattern, variation of b-value, and geomagnetic anomalies. However, official reports of such successful predictions in geophysical journals are extremely rare, implying that deterministic prediction of potentially damaging aftershocks is not necessarily more scientifically feasible than prediction of mainshocks

Incorporating inventories into supply and demand analysis

While the paper lacks a formal abstract, it draws the important distinction between stocks and flows in supply and demand to better understand the business cycle

Evidence for strong lateral seismic velocity variation in the lower crust and upper mantle beneath the California margin

Regional seismograms from earthquakes in Northern California show a systematic difference in arrival times across Southern California where long period (30–50 s) SH waves arrive up to 15 s earlier at stations near the coast compared with sites towards the east at similar epicentral distances. We attribute this time difference to heterogeneity of the velocity structure at the crust–mantle interface beneath the California margin. To model these observations, we propose a fast seismic layer, with thickness growing westward from the San Andreas along with a thicker and slower continental crust to the east. Synthetics generated from such a model are able to match the observed timing of SH waveforms better than existing 3D models. The presence of a strong upper mantle buttressed against a weaker crust has a major influence in how the boundary between the Pacific plate and North American plate deforms and may explain the observed asymmetric strain rate across the boundary

Incorporating inventories into supply and demand analysis

While the paper lacks a formal abstract, it draws the important distinction between stocks and flows in supply and demand to better understand the business cycle.Inventories; supply and demand; business cycles; stocks versus flows

Habitat Utilization and Vertical Movements of White Marlin (Tetrapturus albidus) Released from Commercial and Recreational Fishing Gears in the Western North Atlantic Ocean: Inferences from Short Duration Pop-up Archival Satellite Tags

behavioral and oceanographic parameters to standardize historical catch-per-unit-effort time-series data. These methods have allowed researchers to account for significant changes in the depths of pelagic longline (PLL) gear deployments over time. This study presents habitat-use data recovered from high-resolution 5- and 10-day pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) attached to 47 surviving white marlin released from commercial and recreational fishing gears offshore of the U.S. East Coast, the northern Caribbean, and Venezuela between 2002 and 2004. Data recovered from transmitting tags indicated that white marlin spent nearly half of their time associated with warm, near-surface waters (\u3c10 m). All fish displayed frequent short duration (mean: 39.8 min) vertical excursions from surface waters to depths averaging 51 m. Qualitative and multivariate classifications of data from completely transmitted movements of surviving white marlin revealed two major types of descents: one pattern was characterized by deep ‘V’-shaped excursions of relatively short duration (mean: 23.4 min) while the other featured descents that were more broadly ‘U’-shaped and confined to a specific depth range for an extended period of time (mean: 75.8 min). Based on the frequency, persistence, and patterns of these vertical movements, white marlin appear to direct a considerable proportion of foraging effort well below surface waters, a behavior that may account for relatively high catch rates of white marlin on some deep-set PLL deployments

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M>6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (415000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept', being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all>400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate', ‘strong' or ‘very strong' shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5-7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong' to ‘severe' shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30

Shallow Basin Structure and Attenuation Are Key to Predicting Long Shaking Duration in Los Angeles Basin

Ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin during large earthquakes are modulated by earthquake ruptures, path effects into the basin, basin effects, and local site response. We analyzed the direct effect of shallow basin structures on shaking duration at a period of 2–10 s in the Los Angeles region through modeling small magnitude, shallow, and deep earthquake pairs. The source depth modulates the basin response, particularly the shaking duration, and these features are a function of path effect and not site condition. Three‐dimensional simulations using the CVM‐S4.26.M01 velocity model show good fitting to the initial portion of the waveforms at periods of 5 s and longer but fail to predict the long shaking duration during shallow events, especially at periods less than 5 s. Simulations using CVM‐H do not match the timing of the initial arrivals as well as CVM‐S4.26.M01, and the strong late arrivals in the CVM‐H simulation travel with an apparent velocity slower than observed. A higher‐quality factor than traditionally assumed may produce synthetics with longer durations but is unable to accurately match the amplitude and phase. Beamforming analysis using dense array data further reveals the long duration surface waves have the same back azimuth as the direct arrivals and are generated at the basin edges, while the later coda waves are scattered from off‐azimuth directions, potentially due to strong, sharp boundaries offshore. Improving the description of these shallow basin structures and attenuation model will enhance our capability to predict long‐period ground motions in basins