Recent extensions to the free-vortex-sheet theory for expanded convergence capability

A new version of the free vortex sheet formulation is presented which has greatly improved convergence characteristics for a broad range of geometries. The enhanced convergence properties were achieved largely with extended modeling capabilities of the leading edge vortex and the near field trailing wake. Results from the new code, designated FVS-1, are presented for a variety of configurations and flow conditions with emphasis on vortex flap applications

Charge distribution uncertainty in differential mobility analysis of aerosols

The inference of particle size distributions from differential mobility analyzer (DMA) data requires knowledge of the charge distribution on the particles being measured. The charge distribution produced by a bipolar aerosol charger depends on the properties of the ions produced in the charger, and on the kinetics of charge transfer from molecular ions or ion clusters to the particles. A single parameterization of a theoretically predicted charge distribution is employed in most DMA analyses regardless of the atmospheric conditions being probed. Deviations of the actual charge distribution from that assumed in the data analysis will bias the estimated particle size distribution. We examine these potential biases by modeling measurements and data inversion using charge distributions calculated for a range of atmospheric conditions. Moreover, simulations were performed using the ion-to-particle flux coefficients predicted for a range of properties of both the particles and ions. To probe the biases over the full range of particle sizes, the measurements were simulated through an atmospheric new particle formation event. The differences between the actual charge distribution and that according to the commonly used parametrization resulted in biases as large as a factor of 5 for nucleation-mode particles, and up to 80% for larger particles. Incorrect estimates of the relative permittivity of the particles or not accounting for the temperature and pressure effects for measurements at 10 km altitude produced biases in excess of 50%; three-fold biases result from erroneous estimates of the ion mobility distribution. We further report on the effects of the relative permittivity of the ions, the relative concentrations of negative and positive ions, and truncation of the number of charge states considered in the inversion

The Borrego Mountain, California, earthquake of 9 April 1968: A preliminary report

The largest earthquake to hit California in more than 15 years occurred at 02:28:58.9 GCT on 9 April 1968 near Borrego Mountain, on the western edge of the Imperial Valley. The Seismological Laboratory at Pasadena has tentatively assigned the shock a magnitude of 6.5, an epicentral location of 33 ° 08.8' N, 116 ° 07.5' W, and a focal depth of 20 km. The earthquake was felt throughout most of southern California and adjacent areas, but the absence of severe damage and casualties was in large part due to the relatively undeveloped nature of the epicentral region. Indeed, it would have been difficult to pick a location in the southernmost part of the State more remote from centers of population

Gestational Age at Birth and Risk of Developmental Delay: The Upstate KIDS Study

Objective—To model the association between gestational age at birth and early child development through 3 years of age. Study Design—Development of 5868 children in Upstate KIDS (New York State; 2008–2014) was assessed at 7 time-points using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ). The ASQ was implemented using gestational age corrected dates of birth at 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. Whether children were eligible for developmental services from the Early Intervention Program (EIP) was determined through linkage. Gestational age was based on vital records. Statistical models adjusted for covariates including sociodemographic factors, maternal smoking and plurality. Results——Compared to gestational age of 39 weeks, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals of failing the ASQ for children delivered at \u3c 32, 32–34, 35–36, 37, 38, and 40 weeks gestational age were: 5.32 (3.42, 8.28), 2.43 (1.60, 3.69), 1.38 (1.00, 1.90), 1.37 (0.98, 1.90), 1.29 (0.99, 1.67), 0.73 (0.55, 0.96), and 0.51 (0.32, 0.82). Similar risks of being eligible for EIP services were observed (aOR: 4.19, 2.10, 1.29, 1.20, 1.01, 1.00 (ref), 0.92, 0.78, respectively for \u3c 32, 32–34, 37, 38, 39 (ref), 40, 41 weeks). Conclusion—Gestational age was inversely associated with developmental delays for all gestational ages. Evidence from our study is potentially informative for low-risk deliveries at 39 weeks but it is notable that deliveries at 40 weeks exhibited further lower risk

A Study on the Efficacy of a Naloxone Training Program

Introduction: The use of naloxone to reverse a potentially fatal opioid overdose is a harm reduction strategy that reduces mortality and increases the potential for referral to substance use treatment for affected individuals. In the setting of outreach performed by a street medicine team, we aimed to determine the effectiveness of an educational intervention involving distribution of naloxone accompanied by a brief instructive session about opioids, opioid overdose, and medication administration. Methods: Our street medicine outreach team distributed 200 naloxone kits to clinicians and volunteers involved in caring for patients on ‘street rounds,’ as well as in shelters, soup kitchens, and street medicine clinic settings. Those receiving a naloxone kit engaged in a peer-reviewed presentation on how to safely use the medication to reverse a potentially fatal opioid overdose. The study team developed and administered a pre- and post-survey of 10 multiple choice questions on material covered in the educational training. The pre- and post-survey scores were compared to assess the effectiveness of implementing this training. Results were stratified by participant gender and age group. Results: Out of the 200 participants, six were excluded from the analysis due to completely missing data from one or both surveys. The mean age of participants was 40.2±12.5 years; 120 (65.6%) were female, 62 (33.9%) were male, and 1 (0.6%) identified as nonbinary. Every survey question had an increase in correct responses from pre-survey to post-survey (identified by an increase in the percentage of correct responses). The mean survey total score increased from 5.5±1.6 to 7.5±1.3. Within the sample of 194, the mean difference in scores from pre-survey to post-survey was 2.02 points (95% CI [1.77, 2.26]), p\u3c0.0001. Males had a mean increase in the total score from 5.6±1.8 to 7.4±1.1. Females had a mean increase in the total score from 5.5±1.5 to 7.5±1.3. The difference in total scores in males was 1.89 points (95% CI [1.42, 2.35]), p\u3c0.0001, and in females was 2.02 points (95% CI [1.71, 2.32]), p\u3c0.0001. Post-test scores improved in all age groups. Conclusion: The educational training on opioids, opioid overdose, and the use of naloxone was an effective adjunct to naloxone kit distribution to volunteers and clinicians caring for people experiencing homelessness

Coordinated strategy for a model-based decision support tool for coronavirus disease, Utah, USA

The coronavirus disease pandemic has highlighted the key role epidemiologic models play in supporting public health decision-making. In particular, these models provide estimates of outbreak potential when data are scarce and decision-making is critical and urgent. We document the integrated modeling response used in the US state of Utah early in the coronavirus disease pandemic, which brought together a diverse set of technical experts and public health and healthcare officials and led to an evidence-based response to the pandemic. We describe how we adapted a standard epidemiologic model; harmonized the outputs across modeling groups; and maintained a constant dialogue with policymakers at multiple levels of government to produce timely, evidence-based, and coordinated public health recommendations and interventions during the first wave of the pandemic. This framework continues to support the state's response to ongoing outbreaks and can be applied in other settings to address unique public health challenges

Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions---southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia---and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1Â month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90% of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2Â weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes