The effect of anti-retroviral therapy on fracture healing : an in vivo animal model.

A number of anti-retroviral therapies (ART) have been implicated in potentially contributing to HIV-associated bone disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of combination ART on the fracture healing process. A total of 16 adult male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups (n = eight each): Group 1 was given a combination of Tenfovir 30 mg, Lamivudine 30 mg, and Efavirenz 60 mg per day orally, whereas Group 2 was used as a control. After one week of medication preload, all rats underwent a standardized surgical procedure of mid-shaft tibial osteotomy fixed by intramedullary nail with no gap at the fracture site. Progress in fracture healing was monitored regularly for eight weeks. Further evaluations were carried out after euthanasia by micro-CT, mechanically and histologically. Two blinded orthopaedic surgeons used the Radiological Union Scoring system for the Tibia (RUST) to determine fracture healing. The fracture healing process was different between the two groups at week 4 after surgery; only two out of eight rats showed full healing in Group 1 (ART-treated), while seven out of eight rats had bone union in Group 2 (control) (p = 0.040). However, at week eight postoperatively, there was no statistical difference in bone healing; seven out of eight progressed to full union in both groups. This study demonstrated that combination ART resulted in delayed fracture healing at week 4 after surgery in rats, but did not result in the development of nonunion

Prevalence of pneumonia and malnutrition among children in Jigawa state, Nigeria: a community-based clinical screening study

Objective: To estimate the point prevalence of pneumonia and malnutrition and explore associations with household socioeconomic factors. / Design: Community-based cross-sectional study conducted in January–June 2021 among a random sample of households across all villages in the study area. / Setting: Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa state, Nigeria. / Participants: Children aged 0–59 months who were permanent residents in Kiyawa and present at home at the time of the survey. / Main outcome measures: Pneumonia (non-severe and severe) defined using WHO criteria (2014 revision) in children aged 0–59 months. Malnutrition (moderate and severe) defined using mid-upper arm circumference in children aged 6–59 months. / Results: 9171 children were assessed, with a mean age of 24.8 months (SD=15.8); 48.7% were girls. Overall pneumonia (severe or non-severe) point prevalence was 1.3% (n=121/9171); 0.6% (n=55/9171) had severe pneumonia. Using an alternate definition that did not rely on caregiver-reported cough/difficult breathing revealed higher pneumonia prevalence (n=258, 2.8%, 0.6% severe, 2.2% non-severe). Access to any toilet facility was associated with lower odds of pneumonia (aOR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.31 to 1.01). The prevalence of malnutrition (moderate or severe) was 15.6% (n=1239/7954) with 4.1% (n=329/7954) were severely malnourished. Being older (aOR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.27), male (aOR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.91) and having head of compound a business owner or professional (vs subsistence farmer, aOR 0.71; 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.90) were associated with lower odds of malnutrition. / Conclusions: In this large, representative community-based survey, there was a considerable pneumonia and malnutrition morbidity burden. We noted challenges in the diagnosis of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness-defined pneumonia in this context

Pulse oximetry and oxygen services for the care of children with pneumonia attending frontline health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria (INSPIRING-Lagos): study protocol for a mixed-methods evaluation

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this evaluation is to understand whether introducing stabilisation rooms equipped with pulse oximetry and oxygen systems to frontline health facilities in Ikorodu, Lagos State, alongside healthcare worker (HCW) training improves the quality of care for children with pneumonia aged 0-59 months. We will explore to what extent, how, for whom and in what contexts the intervention works. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Quasi-experimental time-series impact evaluation with embedded mixed-methods process and economic evaluation. SETTING: seven government primary care facilities, seven private health facilities, two government secondary care facilities. TARGET POPULATION: children aged 0-59 months with clinically diagnosed pneumonia and/or suspected or confirmed COVID-19. INTERVENTION: 'stabilisation rooms' within participating primary care facilities in Ikorodu local government area, designed to allow for short-term oxygen delivery for children with hypoxaemia prior to transfer to hospital, alongside HCW training on integrated management of childhood illness, pulse oximetry and oxygen therapy, immunisation and nutrition. Secondary facilities will also receive training and equipment for oxygen and pulse oximetry to ensure minimum standard of care is available for referred children. PRIMARY OUTCOME: correct management of hypoxaemic pneumonia including administration of oxygen therapy, referral and presentation to hospital. SECONDARY OUTCOME: 14-day pneumonia case fatality rate. Evaluation period: August 2020 to September 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval from University of Ibadan, Lagos State and University College London. Ongoing engagement with government and other key stakeholders during the project. Local dissemination events will be held with the State Ministry of Health at the end of the project (December 2022). We will publish the main impact results, process evaluation and economic evaluation results as open-access academic publications in international journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12621001071819; Registered on the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry

Integrated Sustainable childhood Pneumonia and Infectious disease Reduction in Nigeria (INSPIRING) through whole system strengthening in Jigawa, Nigeria: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Child mortality remains unacceptably high, with Northern Nigeria reporting some of the highest rates globally (e.g. 192/1000 live births in Jigawa State). Coverage of key protect and prevent interventions, such as vaccination and clean cooking fuel use, is low. Additionally, knowledge, care-seeking and health system factors are poor. Therefore, a whole systems approach is needed for sustainable reductions in child mortality. METHODS: This is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated process and economic evaluations, conducted from January 2021 to September 2022. The trial will be conducted in Kiyawa Local Government Area, Jigawa State, Nigeria, with an estimated population of 230,000. Clusters are defined as primary government health facility catchment areas (n = 33). The 33 clusters will be randomly allocated (1:1) in a public ceremony, and 32 clusters included in the impact evaluation. The trial will evaluate a locally adapted 'whole systems strengthening' package of three evidence-based methods: community men's and women's groups, Partnership Defined Quality Scorecard and healthcare worker training, mentorship and provision of basic essential equipment and commodities. The primary outcome is mortality of children aged 7 days to 59 months. Mortality will be recorded prospectively using a cohort design, and secondary outcomes measured through baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys. Assuming the following, we will have a minimum detectable effect size of 30%: (a) baseline mortality of 100 per 1000 livebirths, (b) 4480 compounds with 3 eligible children per compound, (c) 80% power, (d) 5% significance, (e) intra-cluster correlation of 0.007 and (f) coefficient of variance of cluster size of 0.74. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat, comparing intervention and control clusters, adjusting for compound and trial clustering. DISCUSSION: This study will provide robust evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based participatory learning and action, with integrated health system strengthening and accountability mechanisms, to reduce child mortality. The ethnographic process evaluation will allow for a rich understanding of how the intervention works in this context. However, we encountered a key challenge in calculating the sample size, given the lack of timely and reliable mortality data and the uncertain impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 39213655 . Registered on 11 December 2019

Protecting children in low-income and middle-income countries from COVID-19

CITATION: Ahmed, S. et al. 2020. Protecting children in low-income and middle-income countries from COVID-19. BMJ Global Health, 5:e002844. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002844.The original publication is available at https://gh.bmj.comA saving grace of the COVID-19 pandemic in high-income and upper middle-income countries has been the relative sparing of children. As the disease spreads across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), long-standing system vulnerabilities may tragically manifest, and we worry that children will be increasingly impacted, both directly and indirectly. Drawing on our shared child pneumonia experience globally, we highlight these potential impacts on children in LMICs and propose actions for a collective response.https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/5/e002844.abstractPublisher's versio

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research