Visualization of uncertainty in natural hazards assessments using an interactive cartographic information system

Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discusse

Religious liberalism: issues of religious minorities in Georgia

Since 2012, there have been several issues concerning the Georgian Muslim community. These issues include the dismantling of a minaret, the dispute over ruined mosque, and the nailing of a pig’s head to a madrassa door. Common causes attributed to these events are the failure of the Central Government to react properly to these issues, the attitudes and rhetoric of the Georgian Orthodox Church, and popular Turkophobia. This research seeks to find the cause of these issues and investigate what they reveal about the democratization process of Georgia. The hypotheses investigated include the roles of the Georgian Central Government, The Georgian Orthodox Church, and popular Turkophobia in instigating these cases. This qualitative research investigates each of the cases of discrimination involving the Georgian Muslim minority originating from Adjara. The cases are analysed in depth through the use of news media and secondary data. To verify the findings and to gain an experienced perspective on the issues, interviews were conducted with experts who have worked with this minority group and other minority issues in Georgia. The theoretical framework of this research involves the concepts of democratization, particularly the concepts of democratic consolidation, majoritarian democracies, liberal/illiberal democracies, state strength, and pluralism. The research findings conclude that all three of the hypotheses are interrelated causes of the cases in question. The findings of the research indicate that the ultimate cause of the cases is Georgia being a weak state that is unable to function without the approval of the Georgian Orthodox church. In addition to this, popular Turkophobia is used as a tool by opponents of the activities of the Georgian Muslim group. It is revealed from the research that Georgia is in the process of democratization, and that it can be labelled as a majoritarian or illiberal democracy, because it lacks the state strength to implement the values of a liberal democracy.https://www.ester.ee/record=b5283769*es

Re-considering the status quo: Improving calibration of land use change models through validation of transition potential predictions

The increasing complexity of the dynamics captured in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change modelling has made model behaviour less transparent and calibration more extensive. For cellular automata models in particular, this is compounded by the fact that validation is typically performed indirectly, using final simulated change maps; rather than directly considering the probabilistic predictions of transition potential. This study demonstrates that evaluating transition potential predictions provides detail into model behaviour and performance that cannot be obtained from simulated map comparison alone. This is illustrated by modelling LULC transitions in Switzerland using both Logistic Regression and Random Forests. The results emphasize the need for LULC modellers to explicitly consider the performance of individual transition models independently to ensure robust predictions. Additionally, this study highlights the potential for predictor variable selection as a means to improve transition model generalizability and parsimony, which is beneficial for simulating future LULC change

Arbeitspapier "Operationalisierung funktionierende Ökologische Infrastruktur"

Die Ökologische Infrastruktur (ÖI) ist für die Erhaltung und Förderung der Biodiversität unerlässlich und stellt lebenswichtige Leistungen für den Menschen bereit. ÖI basieren auf natürlichen und halbnatürlichen Lebensräumen. Die Entwicklung und der Schutz solcher ÖI wurden als zentrale Schritte für den Erfolg der Strategie Biodiversität Schweiz (SBS) identifiziert. Konzepte wie «Grüne Infrastruktur» oder «Naturbasierte Lösungen (Nature-based Solutions)», die sich auf ÖI beziehen, haben sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten zunehmend etabliert. Ihre teils unterschiedlichen Sichtweisen erschweren jedoch eine klare Anwendung in der Praxis. Dieses Arbeitspapier ist eine literaturbasierte Auslegeordnung und stellt verschiedene Zugänge zur Operationalisierung einer «funktionierenden» ÖI vor. Für das Projekt ValPar.CH ist das Arbeitspapier eine wichtige Grundlage für ein gemeinsames Begriffsverständnis im Projektteam. Das Forschungsteam wird das Funktionieren einer ÖI sowohl aufgrund ökologischer Aspekte (Module A), wie auch basierend auf den gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Nutzen der ÖI (Module B) und deren langfristige Sicherung durch verschiedene «policy»-Mechanismen (Module D) beurteilen. Darauf aufbauen wird das Team Empfehlungen für die Sicherstellung einer funktionierenden ÖI erarbeiten. Ecological infrastructure (EI) is essential for the conservation and promotion of biodiversity and provides vital services for humans. EI is based on natural and semi-natural habitats. The development and protection of EI have been identified as key steps for the success of the Swiss Biodiversity Strategy (SBS). Concepts such as "Green Infrastructure" or "Nature-based Solutions", which refer to EI, have become increasingly established in recent decades. However, their partly different perspectives make application in practice difficult. This working paper is a literature-based overview and presents different approaches to the operationalization of a "functioning" EI. For the ValPar.CH project, this working paper is an important basis for arriving at a common understanding of the term within the project team. The research team will assess the functioning of an EI based on ecological aspects (Module A), as well as based on the societal and economic benefits of the EI (Module B) and its long-term safeguarding through different "policy" mechanisms (Module D). Based on this, the team will develop recommendations for ensuring a functioning EI

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

How previous experiences shape actors' current perspectives in integrated natural resource management

Previous experiences play a multifaceted role in shaping current perspectives in integrated natural resource management. We used qualitative interviews and a quantitative survey to study the similarities and differences in terms of the links between the diverse actors' previous experiences and their current perspectives on the various issues to be resolved in a real-world integrated watershed management project.We found that the quantity and quality of experiences in past projects including water management, participation and politics are dissimilarly linked to the information, mental models and beliefs of perspectives regarding present issues. More experienced actors generally have broader perspectives than less experienced actors. Less experienced actors are particularly curious about approaches to water management.Actors with more experience in water management are more focused on ecological issues due to positive experience. Actors with more experience in participation are more sceptical about constructive solutions due to negative experience. Actors with more experience in politics emphasise the importance of agriculture and learning processes due to positive or negative experience. Actors with more negative experience in water management, participation and politics can nevertheless be motivated for participatory processes and integrated natural resource management.We conclude that previous experiences are critical factors that should be considered when designing participatory processes in integrated natural resource management. It could be valuable to include mixed compositions of actors with different types of previous experiences and different aspects of current perspectives to benefit from their complementary strengths

On the importance of non-linear relationships between landscape patterns and the sustainable provision of ecosystem services

Marginal land use changes can abruptly result in non-marginal and irreversible changes in ecosystem functioning and the economic values that the ecosystem generates. This challenges the traditional ecosystem services (ESS) mapping approach, which has often made the assumption that ESS can be mapped uniquely to land use and land cover data. Using a functional fragmentation measure, we show how landscape pattern changes might lead to changes in the delivery of ESS. We map changes in ESS of dry calcareous grasslands under different land use change scenarios in a case study region in Switzerland. We selected three ESS known to be related to species diversity including carbon sequestration and pollination as regulating values and recreational experience as cultural value, and compared them to the value of two production services including food and timber production. Results show that the current unceasing fragmentation is particularly critical for the value of ESS provided by species-rich habitats. The article concludes that assessing landscape patterns is key for maintaining valuable ESS in the face of human use and fluctuating environment