Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast

Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to endure considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Consequently, there is a growing demand for flood risk assessments, particularly at regional scales, which will improve the understanding of the impacts of SLR and assist adaptation planning. Existing studies on coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast either use state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models but cover only a small fraction of the study region or assess potential flood extents for the entire region but rely on global topographic data sources and apply the simplified bathtub approach. In addition, the validation of produced flood extents is often not provided. Here we apply a fully validated hydrodynamic modelling framework covering the German Baltic Sea coast that includes the height of natural and anthropogenic coastal protection structures in the study region. Using this modelling framework, we extrapolate spatially explicit 200-year return water levels, which align with the design standard of state embankments in the region, and simulate associated coastal flooding. Specifically, we explore (1) how flood extents may change until 2100 if dike heights are not upgraded, by applying two high-end SLR scenarios (1 and 1.5 m); (2) hotspots of coastal flooding; and (3) the use of SAR imagery for validating the simulated flood extents. Our results confirm that the German Baltic coast is exposed to coastal flooding, with flood extent varying between 217 and 1016 km2 for the 200-year event and a 200-year event with 1.5 m SLR, respectively. Most of the flooding occurs in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while extreme water levels are generally higher in Schleswig-Holstein. Our results emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection schemes along the German Baltic Sea coast over the 21st century in order to prevent large-scale damage in the future.</p

Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations

Controls on zooplankton methane production in the central Baltic Sea

Several methanogenic pathways in oxic surface waters were recently discovered, but their relevance in the natural environment is still unknown. Our study examines distinct methane (CH4) enrichments that repeatedly occur below the thermocline during the summer months in the central Baltic Sea. In agreement with previous studies in this region, we discovered differences in the methane distributions between the western and eastern Gotland Basin, pointing to in situ methane production below the thermocline in the latter (concentration of CH4 14.1±6.1&thinsp;nM, δ13C CH4 −62.9&thinsp;‰). Through the use of a high-resolution hydrographic model of the Baltic Sea, we showed that methane below the thermocline can be transported by upwelling events towards the sea surface, thus contributing to the methane flux at the sea–air interface. To quantify zooplankton-associated methane production rates, we developed a sea-going methane stripping-oxidation line to determine methane release rates from copepods grazing on 14C-labelled phytoplankton. We found that (1) methane production increased with the number of copepods, (2) higher methane production rates were measured in incubations with Temora longicornis (125±49&thinsp;fmol&thinsp;methane&thinsp;copepod−1&thinsp;d−1) than in incubations with Acartia spp. (84±19&thinsp;fmol&thinsp;CH4&thinsp;copepod−1&thinsp;d−1) dominated zooplankton communities, and (3) methane was only produced on a Rhodomonas sp. diet, and not on a cyanobacteria diet. Furthermore, copepod-specific methane production rates increased with incubation time. The latter finding suggests that methanogenic substrates for water-dwelling microbes are released by cell disruption during feeding, defecation, or diffusion from fecal pellets. In the field, particularly high methane concentrations coincided with stations showing a high abundance of DMSP/DMSO-rich Dinophyceae. Lipid biomarkers extracted from phytoplankton- and copepod-rich samples revealed that Dinophyceae are a major food source of the T. longicornis dominated zooplankton community, supporting the proposed link between copepod grazing, DMSP/DMSO release, and the build-up of subthermocline methane enrichments in the central Baltic Sea.</p

Extreme variations of pCO2 and pH in a macrophyte meadow of the Baltic Sea in summer: evidence of the effect of photosynthesis and local upwelling

The impact of ocean acidification on benthic habitats is a major preoccupation of the scientific community. However, the natural variability of pCO2 and pH in those habitats remains understudied, especially in temperate areas. In this study we investigated temporal variations of the carbonate system in nearshore macrophyte meadows of the western Baltic Sea. These are key benthic ecosystems, providing spawning and nursery areas as well as food to numerous commercially important species. In situ pCO2, pH (total scale), salinity and PAR irradiance were measured with a continuous recording sensor package dropped in a shallow macrophyte meadow (Eckernförde bay, western Baltic Sea) during three different weeks in July (pCO2 and PAR only), August and September 2011.The mean (± SD) pCO2 in July was 383±117 µatm. The mean (± SD) pCO2 and pHtot in August were 239±20 µatm and 8.22±0.1, respectively. The mean (± SD) pCO2 and pHtot in September were 1082±711 µatm and 7.83±0.40, respectively. Daily variations of pCO2 due to photosynthesis and respiration (difference between daily maximum and minimum) were of the same order of magnitude: 281±88 µatm, 219±89 μatm and 1488±574 µatm in July, August and September respectively. The observed variations of pCO2 were explained through a statistical model considering wind direction and speed together with PAR irradiance. At a time scale of days to weeks, local upwelling of elevated pCO2 water masses with offshore winds drives the variation. Within days, primary production is responsible. The results demonstrate the high variability of the carbonate system in nearshore macrophyte meadows depending on meteorology and biological activities. We highlight the need to incorporate these variations in future pCO2 scenarios and experimental designs for nearshore habitats

Differential Responses of Calcifying and Non-Calcifying Epibionts of a Brown Macroalga to Present-Day and Future Upwelling pCO2

Seaweeds are key species of the Baltic Sea benthic ecosystems. They are the substratum of numerous fouling epibionts like bryozoans and tubeworms. Several of these epibionts bear calcified structures and could be impacted by the high pCO2 events of the late summer upwellings in the Baltic nearshores. Those events are expected to increase in strength and duration with global change and ocean acidification. If calcifying epibionts are impacted by transient acidification as driven by upwelling events, their increasing prevalence could cause a shift of the fouling communities toward fleshy species. The aim of the present study was to test the sensitivity of selected seaweed macrofoulers to transient elevation of pCO2 in their natural microenvironment, i.e. the boundary layer covering the thallus surface of brown seaweeds. Fragments of the macroalga Fucus serratus bearing an epibiotic community composed of the calcifiers Spirorbis spirorbis (Annelida) and Electra pilosa (Bryozoa) and the non-calcifier Alcyonidium hirsutum (Bryozoa) were maintained for 30 days under three pCO2 conditions: natural 460±59 µatm, present-day upwelling1193±166 µatm and future upwelling 3150±446 µatm. Only the highest pCO2 caused a significant reduction of growth rates and settlement of S. spirorbis individuals. Additionally, S. spirorbis settled juveniles exhibited enhanced calcification of 40% during daylight hours compared to dark hours, possibly reflecting a day-night alternation of an acidification-modulating effect by algal photosynthesis as opposed to an acidification-enhancing effect of algal respiration. E. pilosa colonies showed significantly increased growth rates at intermediate pCO2 (1193 µatm) but no response to higher pCO2. No effect of acidification on A. hirsutum colonies growth rates was observed. The results suggest a remarkable resistance of the algal macro-epibionts to levels of acidification occurring at present day upwellings in the Baltic. Only extreme future upwelling conditions impacted the tubeworm S. spirorbis, but not the bryozoans

Detecting and tracking eddies in oceanic flow fields: a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity

Since eddies play a major role in the dynamics of oceanic flows, it is of great interest to detect them and gain information about their tracks, their lifetimes and their shapes. We present a Lagrangian descriptor based on the modulus of vorticity to construct an eddy tracking tool. In our approach we denote an eddy as a rotating region in the flow possessing an eddy core corresponding to a local maximum of the Lagrangian descriptor and enclosed by pieces of manifolds of distinguished hyperbolic trajectories (eddy boundary). We test the performance of the eddy tracking tool based on this Lagrangian descriptor using an convection flow of four eddies, a synthetic vortex street and a velocity field of the western Baltic Sea. The results for eddy lifetime and eddy shape are compared to the results obtained with the Okubo&ndash;Weiss parameter, the modulus of vorticity and an eddy tracking tool used in oceanography. We show that the vorticity-based Lagrangian descriptor estimates lifetimes closer to the analytical results than any other method. Furthermore we demonstrate that eddy tracking based on this descriptor is robust with respect to certain types of noise, which makes it a suitable method for eddy detection in velocity fields obtained from observation

Impact of climate variability on an East Australian bay

The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941–2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay

Why the <i>Euler</i> scheme in particle tracking is not enough: the shallow-sea pycnocline test case

During the last decades, the Euler scheme was the common “workhorse” in particle tracking, although it is the lowest-order approximation of the underlying stochastic differential equation. To convince the modelling community of the need for better methods, we have constructed a new test case that will show the shortcomings of the Euler scheme. We use an idealised shallow-water diffusivity profile that mimics the presence of a sharp pycnocline and thus a quasi-impermeable barrier to vertical diffusion. In this context, we study the transport of passive particles with or without negative buoyancy. A semi-analytic solutions is used to assess the performance of various numerical particle-tracking schemes (first- and second-order accuracy), to treat the variations in the diffusivity profile properly. We show that the commonly used Euler scheme exhibits a poor performance and that widely used particle-tracking codes shall be updated to either the Milstein scheme or second-order schemes. It is further seen that the order of convergence is not the only relevant factor, the absolute value of the error also is