An Evaluation of the IIASA/VID Education-Specific Back Projections

In 2007, IIASA and the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (VID) released a database reconstructing detailed information on levels of educational attainment by age (in five-year age groups from 15 to 65+ years), sex, and for every five years between 1970 and 2000 for 120 countries (see Lutz et al. 2007). This database was created in two steps. The reconstruction methodology was applied for the first time and generated what is called the Beta version of the database (unpublished). This paper presents the validation procedure that was implemented to check the plausibility of the Beta version against scattered real data from different sources, mostly from the UNESCO collection of levels of educational attainment. The verification was done by using two main indicators where a comparison was possible: Proportion of the population with no education (E1) and proportion with a tertiary education (E4). The validation procedure was a crucial factor in arriving at the present version of the database (called version 1.0). This paper also presents the results of the validation of the published version against real data, and highlights the need for the harmonization of education data to facilitate comparison over time and space

Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories

Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas

PHARAO Laser Source Flight Model: Design and Performances

In this paper, we describe the design and the main performances of the PHARAO laser source flight model. PHARAO is a laser cooled cesium clock specially designed for operation in space and the laser source is one of the main sub-systems. The flight model presented in this work is the first remote-controlled laser system designed for spaceborne cold atom manipulation. The main challenges arise from mechanical compatibility with space constraints, which impose a high level of compactness, a low electric power consumption, a wide range of operating temperature and a vacuum environment. We describe the main functions of the laser source and give an overview of the main technologies developed for this instrument. We present some results of the qualification process. The characteristics of the laser source flight model, and their impact on the clock performances, have been verified in operational conditions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Review of Scientific Instrument

Differences in fighting behaviour between male morphs of the stag beetle Lucanus cervus

Chez de nombreuses espèces d'insectes en général et de coléoptères en particulier, les mâles présentent des caractères sexuels secondaires exubérants, liés à la taille corporelle des animaux par des relations allométriques complexes, non linéaires. Ces dernières sont responsables d'un polymorphisme chez les mâles et suggèrent l'existence de pressions de sélection variables, fonctions de la taille adulte et soutenues par des stratégies comportementales dépendantes aussi de la taille. Dans ce travail, nous nous sommes intéressés aux relations existant entre les comportements agressifs et la taille corporelle du Lucane cerf-volant Lucanus cervus en développant une approche expérimentale. Cinq groupes de 10 mâles chacun ont été observés pendant 120 minutes et toutes les interactions agressives entre mâles ont été notées. La taille corporelle explique une large part de la hiérarchie linéaire détectée pendant la procédure expérimentale. Nos résultats suggèrent l'existence d'une taille corporelle seuil au delà de laquelle l'agressivité des mâles devient exacerbée. L'issue d'un combat entre mâles dépend fortement de la différence de taille entre les deux rivaux. Si l'agresseur est plus grand que l'agressé, le combat se solde très généralement en sa faveur alors que si l'agresseur est plus petit que l'agressé, l'issue du combat devient incertaine. Ainsi, au sein de notre population d'étude, la taille seuil d'agressivité correspond à la taille à partir de laquelle un animal présente une grande probabilité de rencontrer un animal plus petit que lui et de sortir vainqueur d'un combat.Non linear scaling relationships between extravagant characters and adult body size in numerous males of insects, particularly beetles, suggest that heterogeneous selection contexts shape differently the males according to their final body size and that behavioural tactics also depend on body size. We investigate the relationships between fighting behaviour and body size in the European Stag beetle Lucanus cervus using an experimental approach. In 5 experimental boxes, 10 different males were observed during 120 minutes and all male/male aggressive interactions were noted. Body size explained a large part of the linear hierarchy we detected during the experimental trials. Our results suggest the existence of a threshold body size determining the occurrence of exacerbated aggressive behaviour. The outcome of a male-male contest depends strongly on the body size difference between the two rivals. If the aggressor is the largest of the two males, he wins certainly the contest but the outcome of the contest becomes uncertain if the aggressor is the smallest of the two males. Therefore, in our population, the threshold body size of aggressivity corresponds to the size at which an animal has a high probability to fight with a smaller sufferer and then, to win the contest

Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe

The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines and the extent to which they have impacted different migration flows are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modeling to explore the role of immigrants� origin, distance, stringency measures, and gross domestic product (GDP) trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, drops in immigration flows from countries outside the Schengen Area to Europe persisted in 2021. Immigrants� origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important

Assessing the differentiated impacts of COVID-19 on the immigration flows to Europe

The immediate effects of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility, and internal and international migration have been widely studied. Particularly, immigration to high-income countries declined in 2020. However, the persistence of these declines, and the extent to which they have impacted different migration corridors are yet to be established. Drawing on immigration flows from Eurostat and ARIMA time-series models, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on different immigration streams to seven European countries. We forecast counterfactual levels of immigration in 2020 and 2021 assuming no pandemic, and compare these estimates with actual immigration counts. We use regression modelling to explore the role of immigrants´ origin, distance, stringency measures and GDP trends at origins and destinations as potential driving forces of changes in immigration during COVID-19. Our results show that, while there was a general decline in immigration during 2020, inflows returned to expected levels in 2021, except for Spain. However, immigration corridors originating from outside the Schengen Area were still hardly affected in 2021. Immigrant´s origin emerged as the main factor modulating immigration changes during the pandemic, and to a lesser extent stringency measures and GDP trends in destination countries. Contextual factors at origin seem to have been less important

Assessing populations exposed to climate change: a focus on Africa in a global context

The recent debate on population dynamics and climate change has highlighted the importance of assessing and quantifying disparities in populations’ vulnerability and adopting a forward-looking manner when considering the potential impacts of climate change on different communities and regions. In this article, we overlay demographic projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate change projections derived from the Representative Concentration Pathways. We focus on populations that are likely to be the most exposed to climate change in the future, namely, African populations in a comparative global context. First, we estimate the share of populations living in rural areas, who would be more dependent on agriculture, as one of the economic sectors mostly affected by climate change. Second, we explore how climate change would worsen the condition of populations living below the poverty line. Finally, we account for low levels of education, as further factors limiting people’s adaptation ability to increasingly adverse climate circumstances. Our contribution to the literature on population, agriculture, and environmental change is twofold. Firstly, by mapping the potential populations exposed to climate change, in terms of declining agricultural yields, we identify vulnerable areas, allowing for the development of targeted strategies and interventions to mitigate the impacts, ensure resilience, and protect the population living in the most affected areas. Secondly, we assess differentials in the vulnerability of local populations, showing how African regions would become among one of the most exposed to climate change by the end of the century. The findings support the targeting of policy measures to prevent increased vulnerability among already disadvantaged populations

Global Demography Expert Survey on the Drivers and Consequences of Demographic Change

Insight into the future of the world population is key for policy planning. At present, several organisations engage in developing global long-term population projections and provide varied results in terms of projected population size and structures. This diversity demonstrates that there is a need to reflect on the ingredients that feed into the projections. For this reason, the JRC, IIASA and the UN Population Division launched a survey where experts were asked to assess the validity and relevance of alternative arguments about the forces that could shape future fertility, mortality, and migration trends in the country of their choice. The results of the survey highlight that experts almost unanimously support the roles played by urbanisation, reductions in child mortality, greater educational attainment, and employment opportunities for women in decreasing fertility in high fertility countries. At the same time, life expectancy is expected to continue increasing across world regions, with the most significant improvements projected by experts in current 'low mortality' countries. Experts on migration mostly agree that climate change will lead to a rise in immigration. However, there is less agreement on the forces driving emigration. As a broad conclusion, the expert opinions seem to indicate that demographic challenges of the future do not necessarily have demographic solutions, and will instead necessitate improved adaptive capacities among all societies