ArguCast: a system for online multi-forecasting with gradual argumentation

Judgmental forecasting is a form of forecasting which employs (human) users to make predictions about specied future events. Judgmental forecasting has been shown to perform better than quantitative methods for forecasting, e.g. when historical data is unavailable or causal reasoning is needed. However, it has a number of limitations, arising from users’ irrationality and cognitive biases. To mitigate against these phenomena, we leverage on computational argumentation, a eld which excels in the representation and resolution of conicting knowledge and human-like reasoning, and propose novel ArguCast frameworks (ACFs) and the novel online system ArguCast, integrating ACFs. ACFs and ArguCast accommodate multi-forecasting, by allowing multiple users to debate on multiple forecasting predictions simultaneously, each potentially admitting multiple outcomes. Finally, we propose a novel notion of user rationality in ACFs based on votes on arguments in ACFs, allowing the ltering out of irrational opinions before obtaining group forecasting predictions by means commonly used in judgmental forecasting

The Time Machine: A Simulation Approach for Stochastic Trees

In the following paper we consider a simulation technique for stochastic trees. One of the most important areas in computational genetics is the calculation and subsequent maximization of the likelihood function associated to such models. This typically consists of using importance sampling (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques. The approach proceeds by simulating the tree, backward in time from observed data, to a most recent common ancestor (MRCA). However, in many cases, the computational time and variance of estimators are often too high to make standard approaches useful. In this paper we propose to stop the simulation, subsequently yielding biased estimates of the likelihood surface. The bias is investigated from a theoretical point of view. Results from simulation studies are also given to investigate the balance between loss of accuracy, saving in computing time and variance reduction.Comment: 22 Pages, 5 Figure

DC Inclined-Plane Tracking and Erosion Test of Insulating Materials

The paper reviews previous work on the DC inclined plane test and suggests equivalent DC voltage levels in parallel to AC voltage in the ASTM inclined plane tracking and erosion test. The aim of this work is to provide a basis for standardizing the inclined plane test for DC voltage. Round robin tests done in five laboratories on five specimens of a silicone rubber material were done with the purpose of establishing appropriate ratios by which the equivalent DC voltages can be determined with respect to the corresponding AC voltages. These levels were determined as 67% and 87%, for +DC and-DC respectively, of the AC initial tracking voltage, and for practical purposes, these levels are rounded to 70 and 90%.Peer reviewed: YesNRC publication: Ye

Highly Fluorescent Pyrene-Functional Polystyrene Copolymer Nanofibers for Enhanced Sensing Performance of TNT

A pyrene-functional polystyrene copolymer was prepared via 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reaction (Sharpless-type click recation) between azide-functional styrene copolymer and 1-ethynylpyrene. Subsequently, nanofibers of pyrene-functional polystyrene copolymer were obtained by using electrospinning technique. The nanofibers thus obtained, found to preserve their parent fluorescence nature, confirmed the avoidance of aggregation during fiber formation. The trace detection of trinitrotoluene (TNT) in water with a detection limit of 5 nM was demonstrated, which is much lower than the maximum allowable limit set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Interestingly, the sensing performance was found to be selective toward TNT in water, even in the presence of higher concentrations of toxic metal pollutants such as Cd2+, Co2+, Cu2+, and Hg2+. The enhanced sensing performance was found to be due to the enlarged contact area and intrinsic nanoporous fiber morphology. Effortlessly, the visual colorimetric sensing performance can be seen by naked eye with a color change in a response time of few seconds. Furthermore, vapor-phase detection of TNT was studied, and the results are discussed herein. In terms of practical application, electrospun nanofibrous web of pyrene-functional polystyrene copolymer has various salient features including flexibility, reproducibility, and ease of use, and visual outputs increase their value and add to their advantage. © 2015 American Chemical Society

Rapidly Prepared Nanocellulose Hybrids as Gas Barrier, Flame Retardant, and Energy Storage Materials

Cellulose nanofibril (CNF) hybrid materials show great promise as sustainable alternatives to oil-based plastics owing to their abundance and renewability. Nonetheless, despite the enormous success achieved in preparing CNF hybrids at the laboratory scale, feasible implementation of these materials remains a major challenge due to the time-consuming and energy-intensive extraction and processing of CNFs. Here, we describe a scalable materials processing platform for rapid preparation (<10 min) of homogeneously distributed functional CNF−gibbsite and CNF−graphite hybrids through a pH-responsive self-assembly mechanism, followed by their application in gas barrier, flame retardancy, and energy storage materials. Incorporation of 5 wt % gibbsite results in strong, transparent, and oxygen barrier CNF−gibbsite hybrid films in 9 min. Increasing the gibbsite content to 20 wt % affords them self-extinguishing properties, while further lowering their dewatering time to 5 min. The strategy described herein also allows for the preparation of freestanding CNF−graphite hybrids (90 wt % graphite) that match the energy storage performance (330 mA h/g at low cycling rates) and processing speed (3 min dewatering) of commercial graphite anodes. Furthermore, these ecofriendly electrodes can be fully recycled, reformed, and reused while maintaining their initial performance. Overall, this versatile concept combines a green outlook with high processing speed and material performance, paving the way toward scalable processing of advanced ecofriendly hybrid material

In Vivo Analysis of the Notch Receptor S1 Cleavage

A ligand-independent cleavage (S1) in the extracellular domain of the mammalian Notch receptor results in what is considered to be the canonical heterodimeric form of Notch on the cell surface. The in vivo consequences and significance of this cleavage on Drosophila Notch signaling remain unclear and contradictory. We determined the cleavage site in Drosophila and examined its in vivo function by a transgenic analysis of receptors that cannot be cleaved. Our results demonstrate a correlation between loss of cleavage and loss of in vivo function of the Notch receptor, supporting the notion that S1 cleavage is an in vivo mechanism of Notch signal control

New mechanism for Notch signaling to endothelium at a distance by Delta-like 4 incorporation into exosomes.

Notch signaling is an evolutionary conserved pathway that is mediated by cell-cell contact. It is involved in a variety of developmental processes and has an essential role in vascular development and angiogenesis. Delta-like 4 (Dll4) is a Notch ligand that is up-regulated during angiogenesis. It is expressed in endothelial cells and regulates the differentiation between tip cells and stalk cells of neovasculature. Here, we present evidence that Dll4 is incorporated into endothelial exosomes. It can also be incorporated into the exosomes of tumor cells that overexpress Dll4. These exosomes can transfer the Dll4 protein to other endothelial cells and incorporate it into their cell membrane, which results in an inhibition of Notch signaling and a loss of Notch receptor. Transfer of Dll4 was also shown in vivo from tumor cells to host endothelium. Addition of Dll4 exosomes confers a tip cell phenotype on the endothelial cell, which results in a high Dll4/Notch-receptor ratio, low Notch signaling, and filopodia formation. This was further evidenced by increased branching in a tube-formation assay and in vivo. This reversal in phenotype appears to enhance vessel formation and is a new form of signaling for Notch ligands that expands their signaling potential beyond cell-cell contact

A missense mutation in Katnal1 underlies behavioural, neurological and ciliary anomalies

Microtubule severing enzymes implement a diverse range of tissue-specific molecular functions throughout development and into adulthood. Although microtubule severing is fundamental to many dynamic neural processes, little is known regarding the role of the family member Katanin p60 subunit A-like 1, KATNAL1, in central nervous system (CNS) function. Recent studies reporting that microdeletions incorporating the KATNAL1 locus in humans result in intellectual disability and microcephaly suggest that KATNAL1 may play a prominent role in the CNS; however, such associations lack the functional data required to highlight potential mechanisms which link the gene to disease symptoms. Here we identify and characterise a mouse line carrying a loss of function allele in Katnal1. We show that mutants express behavioural deficits including in circadian rhythms, sleep, anxiety and learning/memory. Furthermore, in the brains of Katnal1 mutant mice we reveal numerous morphological abnormalities and defects in neuronal migration and morphology. Furthermore we demonstrate defects in the motile cilia of the ventricular ependymal cells of mutants, suggesting a role for Katnal1 in the development of ciliary function. We believe the data we present here are the first to associate KATNAL1 with such phenotypes, demonstrating that the protein plays keys roles in a number of processes integral to the development of neuronal function and behaviour.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 4 April 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.54