Should we doubt the cosmological constant?

While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark model against which the known models are compared, thereby obtaining an absolute measure of model performance in a Bayesian framework. We apply this new methodology to the problem of the dark energy equation of state, comparing an absolute upper bound on the Bayesian evidence for a presently unknown dark energy model against a collection of known models including a flat LambdaCDM scenario. We find a strong absolute upper bound to the Bayes factor B between the unknown model and LambdaCDM, giving B < 3. The posterior probability for doubt is found to be less than 6% (with a 1% prior doubt) while the probability for LambdaCDM rises from an initial 25% to just over 50% in light of the data. We conclude that LambdaCDM remains a sufficient phenomenological description of currently available observations and that there is little statistical room for model improvement.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Flat Tree-level Inflationary Potentials in Light of CMB and LSS Data

We use cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data to test a broad and physically well-motivated class of inflationary models: those with flat tree-level potentials (typical in supersymmetry). The non-trivial features of the potential arise from radiative corrections which give a simple logarithmic dependence on the inflaton field, making the models very predictive. We also consider a modified scenario with new physics beyond a certain high-energy cut-off showing up as non-renormalizable operators (NRO) in the inflaton field. We find that both kinds of models fit remarkably well CMB and LSS data, with very few free parameters. Besides, a large part of these models naturally predict a reasonable number of e-folds. A robust feature of these scenarios is the smallness of tensor perturbations (r < 10^{-3}). The NRO case can give a sizeable running of the spectral index while achieving a sufficient number of e-folds. We use Bayesian model comparison tools to assess the relative performance of the models. We believe that these scenarios can be considered as a standard physical class of inflationary models, on a similar footing with monomial potentials.Comment: 42 LaTeX pages, 8 figure

Observational signatures of Jordan-Brans-Dicke theories of gravity

We analyze the Jordan-Brans-Dicke model (JBD) of gravity, where deviations from General Relativity (GR) are described by a scalar field non-minimally coupled to gravity. The theory is characterized by a constant coupling parameter, $\omega_{\rm JBD}$; GR is recovered in the limit $\omega_{\rm JBD} \to \infty$. In such theories, gravity modifications manifest at early times, so that one cannot rely on the usual approach of looking for inconsistencies in the expansion history and perturbations growth in order to discriminate between JBD and GR. However, we show that a similar technique can be successfully applied to early and late times observables instead. Cosmological parameters inferred extrapolating early-time observations to the present will match those recovered from direct late-time observations only if the correct gravity theory is used. We use the primary CMB, as will be seen by the Planck satellite, as the early-time observable; and forthcoming and planned Supernov{\ae}, Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations and Weak Lensing experiments as late-time observables. We find that detection of values of $\omega_{\rm JBD}$ as large as 500 and 1000 is within reach of the upcoming (2010) and next-generation (2020) experiments, respectively.Comment: minor revision, references added, matching version published in JCA

Gauge-Invariant Initial Conditions and Early Time Perturbations in Quintessence Universes

We present a systematic treatment of the initial conditions and evolution of cosmological perturbations in a universe containing photons, baryons, neutrinos, cold dark matter, and a scalar quintessence field. By formulating the evolution in terms of a differential equation involving a matrix acting on a vector comprised of the perturbation variables, we can use the familiar language of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. As the largest eigenvalue of the evolution matrix is fourfold degenerate, it follows that there are four dominant modes with non-diverging gravitational potential at early times, corresponding to adiabatic, cold dark matter isocurvature, baryon isocurvature and neutrino isocurvature perturbations. We conclude that quintessence does not lead to an additional independent mode.Comment: Replaced with published version, 12 pages, 2 figure

Observational constraints on the curvaton model of inflation

Simple curvaton models can generate a mixture of of correlated primordial adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. The baryon and cold dark matter isocurvature modes differ only by an observationally null mode in which the two perturbations almost exactly compensate, and therefore have proportional effects at linear order. We discuss the CMB anisotropy in general mixed models, and give a simple approximate analytic result for the large scale CMB anisotropy. Working numerically we use the latest WMAP observations and a variety of other data to constrain the curvaton model. We find that models with an isocurvature contribution are not favored relative to simple purely adiabatic models. However a significant primordial totally correlated baryon isocurvature perturbation is not ruled out. Certain classes of curvaton model are thereby ruled out, other classes predict enough non-Gaussianity to be detectable by the Planck satellite. In the appendices we review the relevant equations in the covariant formulation and give series solutions for the radiation dominated era.Comment: Minor changes and corrections to match version accepted by PR

Adiabatic and entropy perturbations propagation in a bouncing Universe

By studying some bouncing universe models dominated by a specific class of hydrodynamical fluids, we show that the primordial cosmological perturbations may propagate smoothly through a general relativistic bounce. We also find that the purely adiabatic modes, although almost always fruitfully investigated in all other contexts in cosmology, are meaningless in the bounce or null energy condition (NEC) violation cases since the entropy modes can never be neglected in these situations: the adiabatic modes exhibit a fake divergence that is compensated in the total Bardeen gravitational potential by inclusion of the entropy perturbations.Comment: 25 pages, no figure, LaTe

Suppression of Entropy Perturbations in Multi--Field Inflation on the Brane

At energies higher than the brane tension, the dynamics of a scalar field rolling down a potential are modified relative to the predictions of General Relativity. The modifications imply, among other things, that steeper potentials can be used to drive an epoch of slow--roll inflation. We investigate the evolution of entropy and adiabatic modes during inflation driven by two scalar fields confined on the brane. We show that the amount of entropy perturbations produced during inflation is suppressed compared to the predictions made by General Relativity. As a consequence, the initial conditions do not matter in multiple field inflation in brane worlds if inflation is driven at energies much higher than the brane tension.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

An Observational Test of Two-field Inflation

We study adiabatic and isocurvature perturbation spectra produced by a period of cosmological inflation driven by two scalar fields. We show that there exists a model-independent consistency condition for all two-field models of slow-roll inflation, despite allowing for model-dependent linear processing of curvature and isocurvature perturbations during and after inflation on super-horizon scales. The scale-dependence of all spectra are determined solely in terms of slow-roll parameters during inflation and the dimensionless cross-correlation between curvature and isocurvature perturbations. We present additional model-dependent consistency relations that may be derived in specific two-field models, such as the curvaton scenario.Comment: 6 pages, latex with revtex, no figures; v2, minor changes, to appear in Physical Review

Correlated perturbations from inflation and the cosmic microwave background

We compare the latest cosmic microwave background data with theoretical predictions including correlated adiabatic and CDM isocurvature perturbations with a simple power-law dependence. We find that there is a degeneracy between the amplitude of correlated isocurvature perturbations and the spectral tilt. A negative (red) tilt is found to be compatible with a larger isocurvature contribution. Estimates of the baryon and CDM densities are found to be almost independent of the isocurvature amplitude. The main result is that current microwave background data do not exclude a dominant contribution from CDM isocurvature fluctuations on large scales.Comment: 5 pages, revtex, 3 figures. V3 - DASI data added and reionization taken into account. New figure 2. Matches version to appear in PR

Implications for the Constrained MSSM from a new prediction for b to s gamma

We re-examine the properties of the Constrained MSSM in light of updated constraints, paying particular attention to the impact of the recent substantial shift in the Standard Model prediction for BR(B to X_s gamma). With the help of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scanning technique, we vary all relevant parameters simultaneously and derive Bayesian posterior probability maps. We find that the case of \mu>0 remains favored, and that for \mu<0 it is considerably more difficult to find a good global fit to current constraints. In both cases we find a strong preference for a focus point region. This leads to improved prospects for detecting neutralino dark matter in direct searches, while superpartner searches at the LHC become more problematic, especially when \mu<0. In contrast, prospects for exploring the whole mass range of the lightest Higgs boson at the Tevatron and the LHC remain very good, which should, along with dark matter searches, allow one to gain access to the otherwise experimentally challenging focus point region. An alternative measure of the mean quality-of-fit which we also employ implies that present data are not yet constraining enough to draw more definite conclusions. We also comment on the dependence of our results on the choice of priors and on some other assumptions.Comment: JHEP versio