Terror threat perception and its consequences in contemporary Britain

The terrorist attacks of 9/11, and subsequent terrorist acts around the world, have alerted social psychologists to the need to examine the antecedents and consequences of terrorist threat perception. In these two studies we examined the predictive power of demographic factors (age, sex, location), individual values and normative influences on threat perception and the consequences of this perception for behavioural change and close relationships. In study 1 (N = 100) gender, benevolence values and normative influences were all correlates of threat perception, whilst sense of personal threat was correlated with increased contact with friends and family. In study 2 (N = 240) age, sex, location, and the values of Openness to Change and Hedonism, all predicted threat perception, which in turn predicted behavioural change and relationship contact. Such findings point to the important role social psychologists should play in understanding responses to these new terrorist threats

03-03 "Reconciling Growth and Environment"

Macroeconomic theory and policy are strongly based on the assumption that economic growth is a fundamental goal. The environmental realities of the twenty- first century compel a reassessment of macro theory in terms of the impact of current growth patterns on planetary ecosystems.This paper examines the macroeconomic impacts of growth in terms of several major areas of conflict between economic demands and ecosystem capacities:

Modelling psychological responses to the great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited - Copyright @ 2012 Goodwin et al.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events

Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a simple univariate statistical method to produce a forecast and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of this by the company's demand planners to take into account market intelligence relating to any exceptional circumstances expected over the planning horizon. Based on four company case studies, which included collecting more than 12,000 forecasts and outcomes, this paper examines: i) the extent to which the judgmental adjustments led to improvements in accuracy, ii) the extent to which the adjustments were biased and inefficient, iii) the circumstances where adjustments were detrimental or beneficial, and iv) methods that could lead to greater levels of accuracy. It was found that the judgmentally adjusted forecasts were both biased and inefficient. In particular, market intelligence that was expected to have a positive impact on demand was used far less effectively than intelligence suggesting a negative impact. The paper goes on to propose a set of improvements that could be applied to the forecasting processes in the companies and to the forecasting software that is used in these processes

Value stability and change during self-chosen life transitions: Self-selection versus socialization effects

Copyright @ 2013 APA. This article may not exactly replicate the final version published in the APA journal. It is not the copy of record.Three longitudinal studies examine a fundamental question regarding adjustment of personal values to self-chosen life transitions: Do values fit the new life setting already at its onset, implying value-based self-selection? Or do values change to better fit the appropriate and desirable values in the setting, implying value socialization? As people are likely to choose a life transition partly based on their values, their values may fit the new life situation already at its onset, leaving little need for value socialization. However, we propose that this may vary as a function of the extent of change the life transition entails, with greater change requiring more value socialization. To enable generalization, we used 3 longitudinal studies spanning 3 different life transitions and different extents of life changes: vocational training (of new police recruits), education (psychology vs. business students), and migration (from Poland to Britain). Although each life transition involved different key values and different populations, across all 3 studies we found value fit to the life situation already early in the transition. Value socialization became more evident the more aspects of life changed as part of the transition, that is, in the migration transition. The discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for research on values and personality change, as well as limitations and future directions for research

A computer program to calculate the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of wing-flap configurations with externally blown flaps

A vortex lattice lifting-surface method is used to model the wing and multiple flaps. Each lifting surface may be of arbitrary planform having camber and twist, and the multiple-slotted trailing-edge flap system may consist of up to ten flaps with different spans and deflection angles. The engine wakes model consists of a series of closely spaced vortex rings with circular or elliptic cross sections. The rings are normal to a wake centerline which is free to move vertically and laterally to accommodate the local flow field beneath the wing and flaps. The two potential flow models are used in an iterative fashion to calculate the wing-flap loading distribution including the influence of the waves from up to two turbofan engines on the semispan. The method is limited to the condition where the flow and geometry of the configurations are symmetric about the vertical plane containing the wing root chord. The calculation procedure starts with arbitrarily positioned wake centerlines and the iterative calculation continues until the total configuration loading converges within a prescribed tolerance. Program results include total configuration forces and moments, individual lifting-surface load distributions, including pressure distributions, individual flap hinge moments, and flow field calculation at arbitrary field points